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Durum price drop

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    #11
    Said that facetiously, its nice to be able to say $17+ is gutter pricing. I had presold zero bushels and have sold over half this years durum over 21.50. The rest I'm content to sit on. I anticipate it will go much higher by Feb, but no one ever went broke taking a nice profit.
    Last edited by biglentil; Sep 15, 2021, 07:41.

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      #12
      Why is the market punishing this crop. Down $5 in 2 weeks? WTH

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        #13
        Originally posted by jazz View Post
        Why is the market punishing this crop. Down $5 in 2 weeks? WTH
        The only idea I've been able to come up with...

        -Posted price will be nowhere near settlement price.

        Buyers will insist that sellers put in TPA's, and then they'll be able to fill trains/boats from the lowest price they can trigger up to the price needed to fill it. Some guys are going to look at the posted and sign contracts upon that price because they need cash, others will put in 0.50 over, 2.00 over, or even 5-7 over.

        And here's the best part... If you under-deliver there'll be penalties and adminstrative costs, and if you're over on your $5.00 above contract price contract, they pay based on the posted price for the overage.

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          #14
          Originally posted by jazz View Post
          Why is the market punishing this crop. Down $5 in 2 weeks? WTH
          Durum appears to have started to rebound seeing 18.44 at my local lineco. Maybe ran a little too quick to the 22 region. Classic 23.6% fibonacci retracement after a parabolic rise. I see this pullback as healthy consolidation setting up a nice level of support for the next leg higher into the mid 20 region.
          Last edited by biglentil; Sep 22, 2021, 10:59.

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            #15
            They probably needed to drop it to get guys to sell more when it gets to 20 and 22 again.Expect this to happen a few times between now and next summer.

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              #16
              It was needed to flush out the weak hands from the table. This is a healthy thing

              Iceman

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                #17
                Originally posted by biglentil View Post
                Durum appears to have started to rebound seeing 18.44 at my local lineco. Maybe ran a little too quick to the 22 region. Classic 23.6% fibonacci retracement after a parabolic rise. I see this pullback as healthy consolidation setting up a nice level of support for the next leg higher into the mid 20 region.
                What are you using for a Durum chart?

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