2022

[bucket]

Is it time to take a look at making some moves for 2022?

What will be the cinderally crop? Canola acres down? Wheat acres ? durum? Lentils? Pea acres make a comeback?


So much to talk about on the marketing front with the current prices.

Forgot flax but there is no money in that crop, hahaha.

With a good amount of rain this fall will prices into 2022 drop?

And what about Drew's forecast that this drought may not be over. A couple inches isn't going to grow a crop.

Or has the supply crunch finally scared enough end users not to be caught short?

Is hay worth growing for a tough quarter or two to get a clean up on?


Many topics to discuss.

I think they are all real marketing issues.

[Old Cowzilla]

Growing what works best for your land should work as most crops will pencil out good. We have got a fair bit of rain in the last month but it has been dissapearing too. For most it will be the cost of those crops that make the dif. and supplies of new seed may effect the program. I don't think there will be as many contract bu. next year from what I am hearing. A few more guys might be happy just cashing rent checks.

[bigzee]

How much higher will land values go, or even cash rent? I’m sure there are still a lot of hungry guys out there?
Maybe a good time to exit the program?

Soaring input and machinery costs will take a good chunk out of the bottom line. Will these prices come down when commodity prices plummet?
We all know the answer to this.

My prediction durum will be grown from Minot to Meadow Lake.

[bucket]

My prediction durum will be grown from Minot to Meadow Lake.

Factor in a drought for 2022 and it would have to be to rebuild stocks?

[bigzee]

My prediction durum will be grown from Minot to Meadow Lake.

Factor in a drought for 2022 and it would have to be to rebuild stocks?

Farms that took off 4 bu durum will grow durum on durum. Canola will be off most farms that pulled off dismal yields. I can see a lot of farms going all durum.
There will be tons of fert left on low yielding land.

Regardless of crop choice seed cost for all will be very high. Would hate to have to buy seed for 22.

[WiltonRanch]

I could see canola go on canola next year. So question for the input guys. If my fertility was there for a 50 bu canola crop and it made 10 bu, how do you sit there with a straight face and tell me I need to put on 70# of N?

[Partners]

No major rain in the forecast so far till end of Sept..
Not looking good for 22..

[agstar77]

We are drier today than last year. If nothing changes there won't be any good options.

[sumdumguy]

We went in this year with Zero moisture, maybe should have chem fallowed and prepared for Next Year Country. Flax stubbles yielded really poor Canola this year, won’t go loading flax into the seeder for a few years, long as the memory lasts.

[blackpowder]

Very tempting to sell.
Whatever threshed this year and whatever we can safely hedge for next.

[jazz]

I am very concerned about the input cost squeeze already underway. If prices revert to the mean pretty fast which they usually do, fixed costs are a lot more sticky and some become permanent.

Some of you probably havent grown a crop that doubled in price in mere months. As a former flax grower I have seen that a couple times and they never stayed. Now all the major crops have done it.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I'm expecting peas ( and other pulses) to be up substantially due to fertilizer prices.

By spring, wheat and feed grains should have stabilized to world prices, considering the world wide nature of their production. But the crops we have near monopolies on could persist for longer, especially with the threat of continued drought. The price may not buy many cereal acres, but the cheaper seed and lower risk in a drought might?

[furrowtickler]

I could see canola go on canola next year. So question for the input guys. If my fertility was there for a 50 bu canola crop and it made 10 bu, how do you sit there with a straight face and tell me I need to put on 70# of N?

Always can top dress canola next June if conditions are favourable .
Canola very elastic for fertility. N and S easy to apply after crop establishment.
Also by mid next June fertilizer prices may come back down to earth ?
Ridiculous cost now

[bucket]

A common theme emerging here, I see.

So ask yourselves this...is it good public policy to ignore farmers and ranchers?

They should be looking to start a program to ensure there will be feed for guys by pasture time in 2022 or we will lose another 25 percent of the herd.

[fjlip]

I could see canola go on canola next year. So question for the input guys. If my fertility was there for a 50 bu canola crop and it made 10 bu, how do you sit there with a straight face and tell me I need to put on 70# of N?

This area was 60% canola THIS year, lots on Canola, next year 40% or C on C on C?