Fertilizer

[Hamloc]

Last time fertilizer was this high in price was 2008. I remember what happened then, will history repeat?

[Herc]

Its going to come down. Just whether thats in time for spring is anyones guess. Short term gonna be much like now. Short term quotes, more increases, then we get to new year and potential shortages cause they can’t get it in time.

As always time will tell.

[bucket]

With the current soil moisture profile and the fact guys fertilized for 50bpa and received half that, what is the value in going full out in 2022?

I seen hailed out crops this year that regrew in a mat and every 20 inches was a band . The fertilizer isn't used up.

[Grahamp]

I can’t see it dropping as long as you can lock in $16 dollar canola. They simply do the math on what the fert is worth to us at those grain prices. I think if there is a decline in grain prices fert may fall but I think you’d have to see $12 new crop for that to happen. In 2008 Corn dropped in half after harvest.

[Herc]

With the current soil moisture profile and the fact guys fertilized for 50bpa and received half that, what is the value in going full out in 2022?

I seen hailed out crops this year that regrew in a mat and every 20 inches was a band . The fertilizer isn't used up.

1/2 the N and 1/3 the P going down here next year. That still gets me to 40 canola and 50 wheat if it does rain. Gonna choke up on the louisville, no homeruns here….

[bucket]

Volunteer mustard from hail storm.

[JoeyJeremiah]

[ATTACH]8639[/ATTACH]

Volunteer mustard from hail storm.

Looks like lots of nitrogen left in the mid row bands.

[Hamloc]

Was in the combine yesterday so I made a short post. Here is how I remember 2008. Going into the fall fertilizer prices were really high. But due to the economic recession of 08-09 by the spring of 2009 prices had come down a lot. I remember a lot of consolidation of fertilizer companies in 2009 as Agrium bought out small to medium independents who lost their shirts buying to much high priced fertilizer inventory. Economically are we heading into recovery? Price of lumber crashed hard, could this happen to fertilizer?

[jazz]

Economically are we heading into recovery?

All the recovery has already happened and most of it printed into existence. I dont see how this economy gets any steam with whats coming down the line.

High prices cure high prices. That goes for all commodities if you know what I mean.

[shtferbrains]

Looks like lots of nitrogen left in the mid row bands.

Used to say pulse crops didn't like high background levels of soil Nitrogen. Especialy Lentils?
Anybody worry about that nowadays?

[zeefarmer]

Yep. Definitely considering skipping lentils in 2022.

[helmsdale]

Yep. Definitely considering skipping lentils in 2022.

If one does do pulses, and soil tests show high residual nitrogen, I'm thinking innoculant will be a waste of cash.

It could be coincidence, but I've seen plenty of guys that thought they were doing a service to their pulses by putting down starter N... seemed that they would never nodulate and then didnt have the gas to finish. The starter N would be gone by start of flowering and they'd turn lime green and call it quits at about 20bu/ac.