Canola Price

[wheatking16]

Canola found sellers at the green 50 DMA and closed below my first level of interest.

My experience tells me that this is going much lower.

Of course, the market does not care what I think.




Soybeans are making a new low also.





The Klarebach Report
https://klarenbach.substack.com/

Trade Ideas
https://t.me/klarenbachresearch

[biglentil]

TA can be useful however I think fundamentals are more relevant. With little carry over into 2021 and a shit crop I anticipate healthy support.

[jazz]

Sold 2/3 of my canola today for $19 and change.

Not fcking around with this. Canola can be drawn down by the larger macro elements more than supply demand complex right now.

World is too interlinked now. China and US slowdown.

[wheatking16]

TA can be useful however I think fundamentals are more relevant. With little carry over into 2021 and a shit crop I anticipate healthy support.

One thing about it, time tells us how price behaves.

My background is fundamental analysis, however, I soon realized that I don't have access to all the information in a timely fashion, nor do I have the time or knowledge to process it properly.

Fundamentals are complex with additional information becoming available all the time.

While others find FA works for them, I have found TA is better for me and have become confident with it.

[Rareearth]

The canola crushers and exporters still have lots of room to move on the basis levels ( currently negative vs + $50 to $100 bucks ton)

And don't forget risk is still on, the western continental drought is still on.

Its colder outside, guys busy with harvest and fall work. All in hope that the drought breaks with significant rain fall ( snow melts and runs into sloughs, creeks, and Lake Lenore). There is no crop growing at this time and its easy to forget or misjudge the risks going forward. Next years prospects at this time look very poor - drought.

[Old Cowzilla]

Lots of guys hoping for snow this winter it's not like we have to worry about pushing snow away from bins every time you move grain. Most grain bins already empty or never where used. Just like good times in 80's !!!!!!!

[farming101]

One thing about it, time tells us how price behaves.

My background is fundamental analysis, however, I soon realized that I don't have access to all the information in a timely fashion, nor do I have the time or knowledge to process it properly.

Fundamentals are complex with additional information becoming available all the time.

While others find FA works for them, I have found TA is better for me and have become confident with it.

I prefer charts to wading through all the noise and conflicting reports that are the daily output of fundamental news in the markets. For me fundamentals add to what the charts are indicating.

You might say technical charts don't lie, but they do mislead. It's like a mirage, if you know you are looking at a mirage everything makes sense. If you don't know it's a mirage, well......

[Rareearth]

During late winter, and spring farmers would have contracted new crop canola for early delivery to crushers and exporters for - off the combine/ sept/October/ November this is too make bin space, cash flow, purchase fall chem and fert., etc

I think farmers remember last year and would not forward sell any more than they had to with the obvious drought and poor crop prospects. Bins are locked, and now the market will need to actively “buy it” this is a unprecedented situation as well, with very little forward coverage for the crushers and exporters ( they had coverage last fall with harvest deliveries very contracts and when the prices were increaseing through Christmas many contracted forward to spring and summer to maximize price opportunities.

Will crushers in Sask import canola from eurpoe or russia?

Will they switch to soy beans? import from usa?

Idle the plants? “Summer maintenance “ shut down in june and wait for new crop ? If farmers contract

The crushers and exporters and suggest buyers wont pay the price,

The market, crushers and exporters will need to add more pages to the standard operating procedure manual,
“how to secure and partner, managing a supply chain”

Those companies have been able to hedge, lock in profits with very low risk in the past.

Will we see aggressive bids november forward to secure processing capacity and revenues? New crop fall delivery contracts? Risks are very high for every one. Did i mention, continuation of the western continental drought and long term weather forecast suggesting more of the same?

[farming101]

During late winter, and spring farmers would have contracted new crop canola for early delivery to crushers and exporters for - off the combine/ sept/October/ November this is too make bin space, cash flow, purchase fall chem and fert., etc

I think farmers remember last year and would not forward sell any more than they had to with the obvious drought and poor crop prospects. Bins are locked, and now the market will need to actively “buy it” this is a unprecedented situation as well, with very little forward coverage for the crushers and exporters ( they had coverage last fall with harvest deliveries very contracts and when the prices were increaseing through Christmas many contracted forward to spring and summer to maximize price opportunities.

Will crushers in Sask import canola from eurpoe or russia? DOUBTFUL

Will they switch to soy beans? import from usa?PROBABLY NOT

Idle the plants? “Summer maintenance “ shut down in june and wait for new crop ?CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY If farmers contract

The crushers and exporters and suggest buyers wont pay the price,

The market, crushers and exporters will need to add more pages to the standard operating procedure manual,
“how to secure and partner, managing a supply chain”

Those companies have been able to hedge, lock in profits with very low risk in the past.

Will we see aggressive bids november forward to secure processing capacity and revenues?YES BUT THEY WILL STILL NEED TO BE COMPETITIVE WITH OIL AND MEAL PRODUCTION New crop fall delivery contracts?SLOW UPTAKE THIS COMING YEAR Risks are very high for every one. Did i mention, continuation of the western continental drought and long term weather forecast suggesting more of the same?YES

Oil will be where it's at for profits this year. Meal might have to fight for market share

[biglentil]

SOYBEAN - China expected to buy far more 2021 - 2022 - Gregg Doud, vice-president of Aimpoint Research and former chief agricultural negotiator of the Office of the United States Trade Representative, said China’s ban on feeding table scraps to hogs is a game changer. “It may be one of the biggest changes in agricultural trade in my lifetime,” he said. Half of the world’s hog population resides in China and half of those animals used to be fed swill or table scraps. But that is no longer allowed due to concerns surrounding African swine fever. - - https://www.producer.com/markets/china-expected-to-increase-soybean-purchases-this-year-2/

[Rareearth]

I wonder how much / how many tons or what % of the canola crush last year was bought from the trade/line companies etc vs direct from the farmer?

Truckers sure like that business

[LWeber]

Sold 2/3 of my canola today for $19 and change.

Not fcking around with this. Canola can be drawn down by the larger macro elements more than supply demand complex right now.

World is too interlinked now. China and US slowdown.

Did you sell cash buy paper?

[Guest]

Seeing lots of $26.50here
And $28.40 for non gmo
Crazy !

[LWeber]

Seeing lots of $26.50here
And $28.40 for non gmo
Crazy !

Friday 27 traded old and 23 new.
27 to 19 is $352.00/MT

1200 acres 25 bpa = 680/MT x 352 is close to 1/4 million.

Drive for show - market for dough....

[poorboy]

Anyone who can predict the price 100% of the time would not be on this forum.

I personally thank everyone for giving their opinions and reasons why they think the market is going up or down or why it might be a good time to sell or hold. They are all just opinions and I read them and then make my own decision.

For everyone else complaining about poor marketing calls, you should have to post your own marketing advice for everyone else to read and comment on. It is real easy to be wishy washy and not commit, but much harder to actually post numbers and real opinions.

And hopefully everyone who posts marketing opinions and thoughts is humble enough to realize that their opinions and thoughts may not be correct.

These are sure interesting times. I never thought that canola would get to $20/bus in my lifetime, let alone trying to now decide if $27/bus is a good price. Hopefully this is the new golden age of agriculture. It has been the poor unwanted industry forever.