Fertilizer Poll

[Flatlander]

$670 for 28-0-0?

46-0-0, several weeks ago. Just being delivered now.

[Hamloc]

Right or wrong, I bought all of our needs this week, just before another major jump. December delivery.

I tried to buy late summer, but couldn't get quotes, or could get quotes, but couldn't offer storage at any price till after harvest. Most places still can't even offer a price for any month right now.

Not happy about the prices paid, but I'm more concerned about supply not being available by spring, regardless of price. I'd rather be wrong by paying too much, than wrong by not being able to fertilizer next year.

And realistically, with grain prices essentially doubled, fertilizer still hasn't even caught up, so for those of us with crops this year, it isn't so hard to swallow.

You certainly could be correct, my only concern is fertilizer and oil and gas numbers remind me of 2008. One difference is this time the price run up on fertilizer is supposedly lack of supply and supply chain problems. In 2008 it was more based on higher corn prices.

[furrowtickler]

Right or wrong, I bought all of our needs this week, just before another major jump. December delivery.

I tried to buy late summer, but couldn't get quotes, or could get quotes, but couldn't offer storage at any price till after harvest. Most places still can't even offer a price for any month right now.

Not happy about the prices paid, but I'm more concerned about supply not being available by spring, regardless of price. I'd rather be wrong by paying too much, than wrong by not being able to fertilizer next year.

And realistically, with grain prices essentially doubled, fertilizer still hasn't even caught up, so for those of us with crops this year, it isn't so hard to swallow.

Right now I don’t think there is a right or wrong
Do what’s best if you can afford to for your farm
No one should judge , these are strange times

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You certainly could be correct, my only concern is fertilizer and oil and gas numbers remind me of 2008. One difference is this time the price run up on fertilizer is supposedly lack of supply and supply chain problems. In 2008 it was more based on higher corn prices.

My usual retailer is convinced that this is 2008 all over again, and he did the right thing then and remained in business, while many independants bought ahead and lost the business when the price dropped.

I posted elsewhere that my neighbor who until very recently analyzed nat gas supply and demand for a major, expects nat gas in North America to be lower by spring, and therefore fertilizer with it.

I can see nat gas being lower, but not sure that translates into cheaper local fertilizer. The rest of the world will still be short, and still have high gas prices. Imports will be too expensive to bring in, and our products may be exported to fill the voids elsewhere in the world. If we have even caught up to demand by then.

2008 was irrational speculation in all commodities. A lot of bandwagon jumping, regartdless if it was justified or not. Today is a true supply shortage, likely to get worse before it gets better. The economy could collapse tomorrow, but it won't significantly reduce the demand for fertilizer or even the associated food.

I seeded the 2020 crop ( and some of the 2019 crop held over) with cheap fertilizer, then sold it for very high prices. Seeded the 2021 crop with still cheap pre bought fertilizer, and look to sell it for record prices again. If I buy over priced fert for the 2022 crop, then sell the 2022 crop at long term average prices, then I'm only underwater 1 out of 3+ years. Not bad odds.

[mcfarms]

Tough call for sure, but in 2008 we didn't have China halt exports of phos, nor did we have a big countervailing duty on some of the other biggest exporters which has frozen imports into Nola. Add what could be a winter of high nat gas prices certainly not a year to be unhedged in some form. You don't have to own fert physicals but I'd own some paper or some gas heavy producers stocks or options.

[furrowtickler]

[jazz]

Sat down with rep at Nutrien today. Next chance to get fertilizer is late december or january 22.

Not going to clear the yard and fire up cold equipment just to sock some away for a couple months. Guess I will take my chances there is supply come that time.

[Hamloc]

Sat down with rep at Nutrien today. Next chance to get fertilizer is late december or january 22.

Not going to clear the yard and fire up cold equipment just to sock some away for a couple months. Guess I will take my chances there is supply come that time.

When talking to Richardson rep. yesterday it was the same story. He said latest price from Nutrien was for December and was up another 6%. No competition, not enough manufacturers.

[jamesb]

Its amazing to me as to how many sellers cant even offer a price or bids pulled at any moment. We have enough time between now and spring to get things in order but it seems to be chaos out there. Lots of guys with a lot of years in the business are shook. One can say that somebody dropped the ball but from what I see this is US and Canada wide for sure and world wide for that matter. The mid west US guys are having the same issue. Just like the glyphosate supply , having the bulk of fert supply on hand is going to be important. Starting to get soil test results back and there are no real surprises. Where there was a decent crop , fert levels are low but lots still available where the crop was poor especially phos.

[Hamloc]

Update since I started this thread on Oct. 2. I changed my mind and decided to purchase a good portion of what I need. The biggest issue appears to be ability to actually get supply. The price of fertilizer continues to go up. When grain markets are high there is always the discussion about rationing demand. In my case it certainly worked as I purchased lower levels of nutrients than last year. The part I can’t figure out is Nutrien’s end game as it is them setting the price. The first price I was quoted was on Oct.1 with urea at $1010 for immediate delivery, by the 7th that same retailer was at $1070 and no product until December, so somebody was buying. At the retailer I ended up buying from his posted price yesterday was $1180, not sure it makes any sense. I can say those who had the foresight to buy back in the summer certainly saved some huge dollars.

[burnt]

Its amazing to me as to how many sellers cant even offer a price or bids pulled at any moment. We have enough time between now and spring to get things in order but it seems to be chaos out there. Lots of guys with a lot of years in the business are shook. One can say that somebody dropped the ball but from what I see this is US and Canada wide for sure and world wide for that matter. The mid west US guys are having the same issue. Just like the glyphosate supply , having the bulk of fert supply on hand is going to be important. Starting to get soil test results back and there are no real surprises. Where there was a decent crop , fert levels are low but lots still available where the crop was poor especially phos.

jamesb, you're a pretty levelheaded guy. It's seems a bit out of character to see you get perturbed about something that likely is nothing more than a little bump in the road.

The guys that are "shook", as you say, are likely just a bunch of loosey goosey conspiracy theorists. Mute them and protect your peace of mind, right?

Since there are no real underlying causes for this minor supply disruption, it will will all sort itself out long before you need that fert/chem stock in the spring. As the calendar shows, seeding is still months away.

Take this advice - relax, there's nothing to see here.

Think about your steadying influence on this forum - if you show signs of unease.what effect will that have on the far less astute?

Good luck.

[blackpowder]

I was quietly warned in August.
I listened and placed the order with the thinking I was going to need it anyway.
Dealer stored. They have small bins and tanks but I have none.
Rather be overbooked by %10 and let it go back than pay double for that %10.
I would rather be wrong with supply than right without. A lot like 08 but this time dealers arent speculating. This time China a bipolar wildcard.
Who knows? Over the years buying from Aug to Dec has just made sense.
This year was early and luckily I had room in the checkbook.