Fertilizer Poll

[jazz]

Sat down with rep at Nutrien today. Next chance to get fertilizer is late december or january 22.

Not going to clear the yard and fire up cold equipment just to sock some away for a couple months. Guess I will take my chances there is supply come that time.

[Hamloc]

Sat down with rep at Nutrien today. Next chance to get fertilizer is late december or january 22.

Not going to clear the yard and fire up cold equipment just to sock some away for a couple months. Guess I will take my chances there is supply come that time.

When talking to Richardson rep. yesterday it was the same story. He said latest price from Nutrien was for December and was up another 6%. No competition, not enough manufacturers.

[jamesb]

Its amazing to me as to how many sellers cant even offer a price or bids pulled at any moment. We have enough time between now and spring to get things in order but it seems to be chaos out there. Lots of guys with a lot of years in the business are shook. One can say that somebody dropped the ball but from what I see this is US and Canada wide for sure and world wide for that matter. The mid west US guys are having the same issue. Just like the glyphosate supply , having the bulk of fert supply on hand is going to be important. Starting to get soil test results back and there are no real surprises. Where there was a decent crop , fert levels are low but lots still available where the crop was poor especially phos.

[Hamloc]

Update since I started this thread on Oct. 2. I changed my mind and decided to purchase a good portion of what I need. The biggest issue appears to be ability to actually get supply. The price of fertilizer continues to go up. When grain markets are high there is always the discussion about rationing demand. In my case it certainly worked as I purchased lower levels of nutrients than last year. The part I can’t figure out is Nutrien’s end game as it is them setting the price. The first price I was quoted was on Oct.1 with urea at $1010 for immediate delivery, by the 7th that same retailer was at $1070 and no product until December, so somebody was buying. At the retailer I ended up buying from his posted price yesterday was $1180, not sure it makes any sense. I can say those who had the foresight to buy back in the summer certainly saved some huge dollars.

[burnt]

Its amazing to me as to how many sellers cant even offer a price or bids pulled at any moment. We have enough time between now and spring to get things in order but it seems to be chaos out there. Lots of guys with a lot of years in the business are shook. One can say that somebody dropped the ball but from what I see this is US and Canada wide for sure and world wide for that matter. The mid west US guys are having the same issue. Just like the glyphosate supply , having the bulk of fert supply on hand is going to be important. Starting to get soil test results back and there are no real surprises. Where there was a decent crop , fert levels are low but lots still available where the crop was poor especially phos.

jamesb, you're a pretty levelheaded guy. It's seems a bit out of character to see you get perturbed about something that likely is nothing more than a little bump in the road.

The guys that are "shook", as you say, are likely just a bunch of loosey goosey conspiracy theorists. Mute them and protect your peace of mind, right?

Since there are no real underlying causes for this minor supply disruption, it will will all sort itself out long before you need that fert/chem stock in the spring. As the calendar shows, seeding is still months away.

Take this advice - relax, there's nothing to see here.

Think about your steadying influence on this forum - if you show signs of unease.what effect will that have on the far less astute?

Good luck.

[blackpowder]

I was quietly warned in August.
I listened and placed the order with the thinking I was going to need it anyway.
Dealer stored. They have small bins and tanks but I have none.
Rather be overbooked by %10 and let it go back than pay double for that %10.
I would rather be wrong with supply than right without. A lot like 08 but this time dealers arent speculating. This time China a bipolar wildcard.
Who knows? Over the years buying from Aug to Dec has just made sense.
This year was early and luckily I had room in the checkbook.

[bucket]

We are now back to the excuse of Natural gas prices.

When natural gas was worthless , the excuse was we had to price out of NOLA, then it was the dollar, then its Mosaic getting tariffs on incoming fertilizer.

Now its the price of gasoline with the same excuses.

Dealers can't convince me of the bullshit lines. And why were they not buying when it moved 50 bucks and speculate for their customers, they have the facilities to take a couple thousand tonnes on speculation?

Or are they using customers money to make their margin?

[jazz]

I am looking over these soil samples that just came back. Residual N in fields planned for durum is in around the 65 lbs range. For fields planned for canola its 100lbs Good suphur levels as well.

Of course the rep still thinks I need to add to that, but I didnt think that was too bad all things considering.

Phos a little low. I am wondering if a product like Jump Start would have a benefit if supply becomes an issue.

[foragefarmer]

We are now back to the excuse of Natural gas prices.

When natural gas was worthless , the excuse was we had to price out of NOLA, then it was the dollar, then its Mosaic getting tariffs on incoming fertilizer.

Now its the price of gasoline with the same excuses.

Dealers can't convince me of the bullshit lines. And why were they not buying when it moved 50 bucks and speculate for their customers, they have the facilities to take a couple thousand tonnes on speculation?

Or are they using customers money to make their margin?

I have heard the same reasons from my dealer the past years, and he has given good information as to price predictions and when to buy.

This summer and fall he bought plenty of supply through out the year for his loyal customers at reduced rates and has supply in store for them.

This is our situation which may be rare for a dealer, I don't know.

[Sodbuster]

Bought all our dry fertilizer for next year to be delivered this month. Quite a change from last year, but it’s better in my bin than scrambling in the spring to source product.
11-52 - 2020-$590
2021-$1080
0-0-60. 2020-$430
2021-$795
21-0-0-24 2020-$370
2021-$540
I’m at the mercy of the fertilizer companies for Nh3, doesn’t sound promising with $1100 urea been tossed around.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Ourselves as farmers can afford to speculate since we are not working on margins. We create something from scratch. And most of us have assets to fall back on if we are wrong, or can store our products for longer.

Fertlizer retailers are working on margins, very thin margins at that. If they speculate and buy high priced product, and by spring the price is lower, it is game over for that retailer. As happened in 2008 to many of them. They have one time per year to sell most of their physical product, which doesn't store well.

If they are sitting on over priced inventory by spring, they have no choice but to blow it out at a loss. How many years of low single digits margins would it take to get back to even if they lose 20 to 50% in one year?

[TASFarms]

Bought all our dry fertilizer for next year to be delivered this month. Quite a change from last year, but it’s better in my bin than scrambling in the spring to source product.
11-52 - 2020-$590
2021-$1080
0-0-60. 2020-$430
2021-$795
21-0-0-24 2020-$370
2021-$540
I’m at the mercy of the fertilizer companies for Nh3, doesn’t sound promising with $1100 urea been tossed around.

You must have booked that before September?

[Sodbuster]

Booked last Monday, long term relationship with retailer and always take home my dry before Christmas.

[WiltonRanch]

This is a catch 22 situation. I could put down 100# of 46-0-0 and get an okay crop if we get some rain. If it doesn’t rain I’m not out much. If it rains a bunch I’ll wish I put down the juice. Fertilizer retailers probably wondering the same. I have a few fields where I really spare no expense but others is highly dependent on moisture situation. Wish it was all level and not solonetzic or calcareous. I hope enough of you are optimistic enough to guarantee a supply of available fertilizer this spring.

[Hamloc]

Bought all our dry fertilizer for next year to be delivered this month. Quite a change from last year, but it’s better in my bin than scrambling in the spring to source product.
11-52 - 2020-$590
2021-$1080
0-0-60. 2020-$430
2021-$795
21-0-0-24 2020-$370
2021-$540
I’m at the mercy of the fertilizer companies for Nh3, doesn’t sound promising with $1100 urea been tossed around.

46-0-0 2020 $465 2021 $990.
11-52. 2020 $645. 2021 $1130.
0-0-60 2020 $450. 2021 $795.
20.5-0-0-24 2020 $365 2021 $590.

Yes quite a change from last year.