Fertilizer Poll

[bucket]

We are now back to the excuse of Natural gas prices.

When natural gas was worthless , the excuse was we had to price out of NOLA, then it was the dollar, then its Mosaic getting tariffs on incoming fertilizer.

Now its the price of gasoline with the same excuses.

Dealers can't convince me of the bullshit lines. And why were they not buying when it moved 50 bucks and speculate for their customers, they have the facilities to take a couple thousand tonnes on speculation?

Or are they using customers money to make their margin?

[jazz]

I am looking over these soil samples that just came back. Residual N in fields planned for durum is in around the 65 lbs range. For fields planned for canola its 100lbs Good suphur levels as well.

Of course the rep still thinks I need to add to that, but I didnt think that was too bad all things considering.

Phos a little low. I am wondering if a product like Jump Start would have a benefit if supply becomes an issue.

[foragefarmer]

We are now back to the excuse of Natural gas prices.

When natural gas was worthless , the excuse was we had to price out of NOLA, then it was the dollar, then its Mosaic getting tariffs on incoming fertilizer.

Now its the price of gasoline with the same excuses.

Dealers can't convince me of the bullshit lines. And why were they not buying when it moved 50 bucks and speculate for their customers, they have the facilities to take a couple thousand tonnes on speculation?

Or are they using customers money to make their margin?

I have heard the same reasons from my dealer the past years, and he has given good information as to price predictions and when to buy.

This summer and fall he bought plenty of supply through out the year for his loyal customers at reduced rates and has supply in store for them.

This is our situation which may be rare for a dealer, I don't know.

[Sodbuster]

Bought all our dry fertilizer for next year to be delivered this month. Quite a change from last year, but it’s better in my bin than scrambling in the spring to source product.
11-52 - 2020-$590
2021-$1080
0-0-60. 2020-$430
2021-$795
21-0-0-24 2020-$370
2021-$540
I’m at the mercy of the fertilizer companies for Nh3, doesn’t sound promising with $1100 urea been tossed around.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Ourselves as farmers can afford to speculate since we are not working on margins. We create something from scratch. And most of us have assets to fall back on if we are wrong, or can store our products for longer.

Fertlizer retailers are working on margins, very thin margins at that. If they speculate and buy high priced product, and by spring the price is lower, it is game over for that retailer. As happened in 2008 to many of them. They have one time per year to sell most of their physical product, which doesn't store well.

If they are sitting on over priced inventory by spring, they have no choice but to blow it out at a loss. How many years of low single digits margins would it take to get back to even if they lose 20 to 50% in one year?

[TASFarms]

Bought all our dry fertilizer for next year to be delivered this month. Quite a change from last year, but it’s better in my bin than scrambling in the spring to source product.
11-52 - 2020-$590
2021-$1080
0-0-60. 2020-$430
2021-$795
21-0-0-24 2020-$370
2021-$540
I’m at the mercy of the fertilizer companies for Nh3, doesn’t sound promising with $1100 urea been tossed around.

You must have booked that before September?

[Sodbuster]

Booked last Monday, long term relationship with retailer and always take home my dry before Christmas.

[WiltonRanch]

This is a catch 22 situation. I could put down 100# of 46-0-0 and get an okay crop if we get some rain. If it doesn’t rain I’m not out much. If it rains a bunch I’ll wish I put down the juice. Fertilizer retailers probably wondering the same. I have a few fields where I really spare no expense but others is highly dependent on moisture situation. Wish it was all level and not solonetzic or calcareous. I hope enough of you are optimistic enough to guarantee a supply of available fertilizer this spring.

[Hamloc]

Bought all our dry fertilizer for next year to be delivered this month. Quite a change from last year, but it’s better in my bin than scrambling in the spring to source product.
11-52 - 2020-$590
2021-$1080
0-0-60. 2020-$430
2021-$795
21-0-0-24 2020-$370
2021-$540
I’m at the mercy of the fertilizer companies for Nh3, doesn’t sound promising with $1100 urea been tossed around.

46-0-0 2020 $465 2021 $990.
11-52. 2020 $645. 2021 $1130.
0-0-60 2020 $450. 2021 $795.
20.5-0-0-24 2020 $365 2021 $590.

Yes quite a change from last year.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

46-0-0 2020 $465 2021 $990.
11-52. 2020 $645. 2021 $1130.
0-0-60 2020 $450. 2021 $795.
20.5-0-0-24 2020 $365 2021 $590.

Yes quite a change from last year.

How recent are those prices?

[Hamloc]

How recent are those prices?

Prices were agreed to on Oct.7. Different retailer than last year. Last years retailer had a higher price and earliest available product was December.

[GALAXIE500]

I'll soil test before freeze up. Itll make no difference... theres nothing to freeze. I'll be drilling cores rather than step-on probing anyway.

If they dont have any come spring then so be it. I'll try to scrounge up some phos for peas, and if theres no N, then maybe put some 20-0-0-24 down for starter and call it a day.

You can jack commodity prices to the moon, and if we dont end up with MASSIVE amounts of fall precip and snow, it'll all be money down the drain here!

Theres nothing, nada, zilch for moisture from the surface down to 4+ feet.

Moisture levels here are pretty much the same. Some rain or snow would be great right now. Sure been waiting a long time for it , but..... We are one day closer!