Fertilizer Poll

[Hamloc]

So here’s the deal, I compared what I payed last fall for fertilizer to what I was quoted yesterday and this is what I found. Urea up 117%, 11-52 and MES15 up 82%, Potash up 89% and 20.5-0-0-24 up 78%. Simple poll question, are you going to pre-buy fertilizer this year?

My answer to this question is no. I have done so for many years but the prices make no sense this year.

[jazz]

If this was any other time hamloc, I would say no too, but delivery is the issue now. The premium may be worth just so you have it.

We have double soil tested so we will optimize as much as we can.

[furrowtickler]

Ya but grain price are so high that everyone made so much money ......
Going to be a long winter for many

[Grahamp]

I have mine all prebooked. I did pretty good on the N and waited too long on the Phos. The problem is they know the value of the fertilizer to you.

Last year at this time new crop Canola was $12 and 46 -0-0 was roughly $500. Let’s assume you need 100 lbs of actual N to grow a 40 bushel crop. Roughly $50 an acre N for $480 worth of Canola. So now with $16 new crop you are looking at $640 revenue for $100 of Nitrogen. The industry is assuming you are going to have $160 more dollars of revenue per canola acre. They want it all. They don’t care you may not have had a crop at all, it is all based on a forward looking value projection. New crop canola goes to $20 and you’ll see $1500 N and $2000 Phos. I can’t see anything dropping unless commodity prices drop significantly.

[jamesb]

I have most of my 46 coming in this fall. Nitrogen, diesel and glyphosate are the basic three products that I will have on hand. I expect to lock in the phos and sulfur in the months ahead and take delivery in the late winter as per normal but that may move up this year. Things are funny right now in the world. One can say to hell with it but in my interactions with all my usual fert suppliers , they all are kinda shook up. No product to offer, no price that they can give, price good till the phone is hung up etc etc. I follow Josh Linville on twitter and he provides some insight to it all. Others may be right and we will see cheap fert come spring, I hope so, i would rather be wrong.

[furrowtickler]

I have mine all prebooked. I did pretty good on the N and waited too long on the Phos. The problem is they know the value of the fertilizer to you.

Last year at this time new crop Canola was $12 and 46 -0-0 was roughly $500. Let’s assume you need 100 lbs of actual N to grow a 40 bushel crop. Roughly $50 an acre N for $480 worth of Canola. So now with $16 new crop you are looking at $640 revenue for $100 of Nitrogen. The industry is assuming you are going to have $160 more dollars of revenue per canola acre. They want it all. I can’t see anything dropping unless commodity prices drop significantly.

That pretty much it in a nut shell , good post

[Taiga]

Not buying any fertilizer until next year, and will be less except perhaps nitrogen.
Only positive from this year is I don’t have to buy any seed for spring. Ground is completely dry now, winter snow adds nothing.

[Lexion760tt]

I tried to get a price yesterday, retailer said they couldn’t give me a quote because they were told from the higher ups there maybe no product available.

Question for u guys, our fall soil samples have come back with next to nothing left for nitrogen in top 6” of soil, ground was so dry that’s as far as probe would go. Wheat yield was Pathetic compared to yield goal and n application rate. Agronomists figure that the excessive heat this summer and drought, gased the n off out of the topsoil even though it was incorporated at couple inches prior to seeding, p and k levels are very good though, Is anyone else seeing similar results? Or have heard of such a thing? We use 46 for n.

[Taiga]

I see the same thing, likely only buying nitrogen next year.

[Partners]

Our soil test showed very little N left..

[furrowtickler]

I tried to get a price yesterday, retailer said they couldn’t give me a quote because they were told from the higher ups there maybe no product available.

Question for u guys, our fall soil samples have come back with next to nothing left for nitrogen in top 6” of soil, ground was so dry that’s as far as probe would go. Wheat yield was Pathetic compared to yield goal and n application rate. Agronomists figure that the excessive heat this summer and drought, gased the n off out of the topsoil even though it was incorporated at couple inches prior to seeding, p and k levels are very good though, Is anyone else seeing similar results? Or have heard of such a thing? We use 46 for n.

I would definitely do a soil test in spring
Not sure I believe their theory
There is a desperate attempt from the industry to grab every cent of a farmers dollar so I’d be cautious on that.
We are waiting for the soil temps to cool off before we do any soil testing or pre buying of N. right or wrong , that’s what we are doing
Phos is being delivered now so we have it
Lots of application options for N and timing , not so much for phos

Not afraid at all to apply N on even after herbicide next June

[Robertbarlage]

If we don't get rain and lots of it we won't need fertilizer for next year! Just saying.

[Highlander]

Booked 75% of normal usage for November delivery. Urea October 2020 $425 , October 2021,$925. Phosphate October 2020, $690,October 2021, $1100.
Not sure if it was the right thing to do but thought we would hedge the risk somewhat and roll the dice on the last 25%. 4.5 inches of rain in August but still very dry here. Some analysts confident that there will be a pullback in prices midwinter. One can only hope. Haven’t done soil testing yet this fall but based on this years yields and plant growth thinking that we may see considerable residual nitrogen. Fingers crossed.

[Sodbuster]

No dry fertilizer booked yet, will try to get it done this week and hopefully delivery before it snows. Nh3 pricing for spring usually happens around Christmas, haven’t heard any prices yet for spring delivery

[GDR]

Remember that the fertilizer we add is only a portion of the crop usage. N is added with rainfall, which most of us didnt get and also when its dry we dont get the same lev of OM breakdown and release so perhaps more of the added N was used up on a poor crop than we would like to think. I've booked fert for December delivery, but am waiting on soil test results to see what's there.