Ocean Freight Plunges

[errolanderson]

In the past ten (10) days, the cost of shipping a container between China and the U.S. has been reported cut in-half from $15,000 to $8,000. Why? Lack of demand from China.

Is inflation transitory? You betcha (IMO) . . . .

[WiltonRanch]

So are these shortages then the result of suppliers holding up inventory to create tight supplies?

[macdon02]

In the past ten (10) days, the cost of shipping a container between China and the U.S. has been reported cut in-half from $15,000 to $8,000. Why? Lack of demand from China.

Is inflation transitory? You betcha (IMO) . . . .

Lack of energy cutting production. They have no electricity to produce goods.

[macdon02]

[Old Cowzilla]

Does everyone think China's pissing match with Australia over coal has come back to haunt them ?

[Hamloc]

Lack of energy cutting production. They have no electricity to produce goods.

So in this scenario the cost of energy and goods continue to rise because of lack of supply. Errol I do see potential for lower economic performance but the value of goods will remain high for a while yet imo.

[errolanderson]

So in this scenario the cost of energy and goods continue to rise because of lack of supply. Errol I do see potential for lower economic performance but the value of goods will remain high for a while yet imo.

Yes, believe so . . . . But what may happen is we all begin to see cracks in-the-armour. Iron ore collapse started the fallout. And one by one, we will start to see commodity prices fail. Energy is unpredictable, but not from a lack of supply. but from a lack of transportation. Shortage of truckers. Real estate is a sitting duck (IMO).

Asia financial fallout is real. Their buying led us up, their lack-of-buying will lead us down . . . .

[shtferbrains]

IMHO not a lack of anything. The logistics have collapsed. Too many people sitting at home retired or not interested in working.

[errolanderson]

The cost of shipping continues to drop . . . .

More signs of easing. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles trade route, the rate
for a 40-foot container sank by another $1,000 last week toward
$11,000, more than a 8% drop from the prior week. This is now the steepest
weekly fall since March 2020.

Ocean freight is still several times more expensive than it
was pre-pandemic. So are these latest declines in global shipping
marking a plateau, a seasonal turn lower or start of a steeper correction?

[furrowtickler]

IMHO not a lack of anything. The logistics have collapsed. Too many people sitting at home retired or not interested in working.

Not interested in working because they were collecting free government money . It’s a cycle that’s nearly ruined certain cultures .

[errolanderson]

The Baltic Dry Index has now collapsed 50% since early October . . . . Shipping costs are coming down sharply.

[errolanderson]

China to Long Beach container rates continue to decline. Last heard, container rates around $9,200. Still more than double last year, but well below the insane $20,000 to $24,000 rates heard early fall.

Supply chain congestion now appears clearing stateside. Apparently, getting ship crews totally vacinated when switching ships is still a hold-up.

Inflationary pressures may now be peaking (IMO). Expect base industrial commodity prices to remain under pressure. Fallout in energies now have diesel and gasoline prices in-decline.

Gold and silver have taken heavy hits this week. Some anaysts suggest this is a sign of ebbing inflation. We’ll see . . . .

[BTO780]

China to Long Beach container rates continue to decline. Last heard, container rates around $9,200. Still more than double last year, but well below the insane $20,000 to $24,000 rates heard early fall.

Supply chain congestion now appears clearing stateside. Apparently, getting ship crews totally vacinated when switching ships is still a hold-up.

Inflationary pressures may now be peaking (IMO). Expect base industrial commodity prices to remain under pressure. Fallout in energies now have diesel and gasoline prices in-decline.

Gold and silver have taken heavy hits this week. Some anaysts suggest this is a sign of ebbing inflation. We’ll see . . . .

Would sure be nice to see fertilizer prices take some heavy hits. Absolutely gone off the rails.

[errolanderson]

Would sure be nice to see fertilizer prices take some heavy hits. Absolutely gone off the rails.

Inflation readings are now coming down. Fertilizer will eventually smell-the-coffee, but it’s going to take time (IMO).

[shtferbrains]

How can inflation drop when our weak leaders think the solution to everthing is print more money and run bigger deficit spending.
Less people working but everybody gets paid.
Unions see thier members wages don't buy as much and ask for big rate increases and get it. Just happened at JD, Cargill meats next?
Shortages of all kinds of things with prices rocketing.
I will give odds inflation will be double digits before spring.

There's your reset.