Ocean Freight Plunges

[errolanderson]

How can inflation drop when our weak leaders think the solution to everthing is print more money and run bigger deficit spending.
Less people working but everybody gets paid.
Unions see thier members wages don't buy as much and ask for big rate increases and get it. Just happened at JD, Cargill meats next?
Shortages of all kinds of things with prices rocketing.
I will give odds inflation will be double digits before spring.

There's your reset.

The pain of debt reconciliation has begun. The anti-inflation tonic . . . .

[Hamloc]

Would sure be nice to see fertilizer prices take some heavy hits. Absolutely gone off the rails.

Latest price I heard on Urea is $1285 a tonne. Absolutely gone off the rails is right.

No doubt big spending governments in Ottawa and Washington will simply keep inflation going up. I agree that we are now seeing larger wage settlements which will keep inflation going long term. This belief that inflation is temporary is wishful thinking in my opinion..

[shtferbrains]

The pain of debt reconciliation has begun. The anti-inflation tonic . . . .

Sure hope your right but I don't see it in North America.
Brandon wants 1.8 trillion for a green reset? Run those printing presses.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Once higher wages get baked into the cost of everything, it becomes nearly impossible to roll back the cost of the finished good or service, and these new price levels will become permanent.

[errolanderson]

U.S. port congestion clearing.

Breaking Port of Los Angeles stats-
Imports down 38%, 9+ day aging containers down 53%
Vessels at anchor stand at 58. All of the above over the past 30 days.

Suspect ocean container rates will continue to fall.

[Rareearth]

There is another solution, it called modernize.

There is a company called “Boxbay” they have set up a facility at Jebel Ali in Dubai. They have taken robotic, automation to the next level like amazon, Fedex and others have done. Instead of pallets they do it with containers. They have partnered with a German company called SMS.

The system stacks containers within slots in a steel rack ( like pallet racking). It delivers 3 times the capacity of a normal port container yard ( containers stacked on each other traditionally vs new system where each container has a independent slot. This reduces the footprint for the terminals by 70%. They are fully electrified and automated cranes built into the structure where individual containers can be accessed with out moving other containers. The energy cost are 29% lower, and the current structure holds 792 containers at a time.

In the first six months of opperation, performance, reliability, energy consumption goals have been exceeded by far.
“For ports worldwide, this innovative and disruptive technology will dramatically increase through put/handling volumes and container storage capacity.

300% faster,

Www.boxbay.com

[errolanderson]

Heads-up . . . The Baltic Dry Index is again plunging. Ships are cheap again.

This is a bearish warning for dry freight commodities.

[beaverdam]

Shouldn't cheap ocean freight provide support for more import/export?

It's sorta like when the basis narrows at the elevators, that's when I get some business done.

[errolanderson]

Shouldn't cheap ocean freight provide support for more import/export?

It's sorta like when the basis narrows at the elevators, that's when I get some business done.

Good point . . . The question may be; Is the plunge in ocean freight a global demand signal?

[shtferbrains]

US grain exports down significantly but the still expect to meet predicted goals?

[errolanderson]

US grain exports down significantly but the still expect to meet predicted goals?

IMO no . . . USDA has been wrong all year.

[Old Cowzilla]

Was in C-TIRE and WALLYS few days ago shelves still full of stuff. Food ,toys , clothes and electrical. 70" smart tv $850 . Didn't all the retailers say get yer shopping done soon cause of limited supplies everything will run out. They even have there spring stuff out now bikes garden tools, lawn trimming stuff how did that container get here so fast. Can't wait till wife buys more lawn ornaments******

[TechAnalyst]

Heads-up . . . The Baltic Dry Index is again plunging. Ships are cheap again.

This is a bearish warning for dry freight commodities.

Just to add a bit of context for perspective.

Since the original post on Oct 2, 2021...

March soybeans are up $2.35/bu (12.55 to 14.90)
March corn is up $.75/bu (5.50 to 6.25)
March wheat is down $.07/bu (7.68 to 7.61)
March canola is up $137/t (876 to 1013)

Worth being aware of but just one piece of the puzzle (IMO).

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Just to add a bit of context for perspective.

Since the original post on Oct 2, 2021...

March soybeans are up $2.35/bu (12.55 to 14.90)
March corn is up $.75/bu (5.50 to 6.25)
March wheat is down $.07/bu (7.68 to 7.61)
March canola is up $137/t (876 to 1013)

Worth being aware of but just one piece of the puzzle (IMO).

Demand for ag commodities does not tend to be as elastic as consumer goods, or even industrial commodities. As was pointed out above, if freight rates drop, it makes the commodity cheaper at the other end, or it allows the exporter to pay more at this end.

Farmers are not making and selling widgets.

[shtferbrains]

Demand for ag commodities does not tend to be as elastic as consumer goods, or even industrial commodities. As was pointed out above, if freight rates drop, it makes the commodity cheaper at the other end, or it allows the exporter to pay more at this end.

Farmers are not making and selling widgets.

Have to have fewer boats hauling short crop.
Might get slower yet.