Canola

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Sure making a run today

Watching the action while canola has been stuck in this range for months, it sure looks like there is extreme pressure each way, and once it breaks out either way, it will be epic. Is this the breakout.

[shtferbrains]

Someone pointed out that if it continues dry in the spring Canola will be the crop insurance crop of choice due to the higher coverage.

[jazz]

I don't know about that back to the land movement macdon. As we have seen this past year the average person doesn't have the skills or resilience for that.

Most will be content with rationing and UBI.

Appreciate your perspective but you have some macro trends rolled in there that are pretty uncertain.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Just thought I would bump this thread back up again. Where Macdon's suggested $53 per bushel canola is a possibility. After correctly forecasting the current price range
Given current events, this doesn't look as crazy as it did back in October.
Does anyone still keep in touch with Macdon?

[SASKFARMER]

I think we could see 30 some time but grain companies will hit basis to take that away.

[FarmJunkie]

Glad your back Macdon. Thanks for input. One of the ones that makes sense on this site!

[FarmJunkie]

Has anyone booked canola seed yet? Because from what I see thats the only input that hasnt gone up massively. Tells me less acres going in next yr likely.

The demand picture is pretty vague as well. I mean we have 2 yrs of much reduced production, low carryout, another potential drought and some new local crushers added to the mix. It certainly could skyrocket in price.

The big caveat macdon is if we get another GFC in short order.

Bigger problem Jazz will be getting enuf Liberty or Rup. These guys are a bunch of tools. Apparently they can’t get one ingredient to make the stuff so production is way behind. If u planning to grow some get the chemical for it before u seed it.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Glad your back Macdon. Thanks for input. One of the ones that makes sense on this site!

Sorry for the confusion. This thread is from october, I just bumped it up thinking it maybe relevant given recent actions. MacDon is still awol.

[ajl]

Still have a few unpriced bushels. Watching the futures jet higher but with the widening basis the cash price does not beat my previous $24 sale, which I am hauling this Wednesday. Wish I went for a basis contract 2 weeks ago. The export market has disappeared at these price levels and crushers are not bidding aggressively trying to pretend that they are fully covered. Should be a pricing opportunity left before new crop.

[Rareearth]

Whats wrong with basis contracts:

- completely managed and manipulated by the company offering them

- for the farmer its speculating on what the company’s profit margin will be, or its market position (demand or lack of demand for internal company operations - they go to extreme measures to hid this from competition, farmers and their customers

- is a indicator of the lack of competition ( the higher the basis = higher company profits)

- once a basis contract is signed ( thats the same as a delivery contract) you must deliver to that company

- there must be a business model for smaller independent companies to buy (or broker ) delivery for farmers agains futures. This might be the only way to force futures liquidity, price discovery etc

- does anyone believe the ice futures are a true price discovery tool, hedging mechanism?
Are volumes and liquidity enough, transparent etc?
- ill use this example:, if your at a bull sale in Regina( or any other auction, bull dozer/art etc ), and a bull sells for a record price is it the best bull, The one that sells for the highest price?
Not always, especially if its friends, business partners, or even competitors (with side agreement- next sale you buy my bull). Bidding it higher, world records etc, ill leave it at that - things aren’t always what they seam.
- feels like the canola market

Export sales would help provide clarity, and show risks for the market, and farmers