Canola

[Guest]

Where is canola gonna stop ?
Up $33 right now

[shtferbrains]

Where is canola gonna stop ?
Up $33 right now

WTI $101+

Some poor countries going to be hungry?

How much is price rationing going to effect overall demand on commodities?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Does anyone have the breakdown on Ukraine's tread of crops? Do they grow canola? Do they grow mostly wheat?
I'm getting a strong feeling this morning that Ukraine farm land might not get planted this year due to the following reasons.

- because the country and the men are in the middle of war?
- because Ukraine men refuse to plant crops on behalf of Russian occupiers?
- because supplies aren't available?
- because devalued money can't purchase supplies?
- because land is damaged or infrastructure/roads or equipment is damaged?
- because if Russians plant the crops they won't know the land,,, or care very much?
- because if some crops are planted, none will be exported beyond Russia or Ukraine.

Ukraine is the worlds largest producer/exporter of sunflowers. A direct competitor for canola oil.
This is probably even more significant than the wheat story.

Wheat, barley, hops, sugar beets, oats. Some winter r a p e seed. Soy and corn are(were) gaining acres in a big way.

[shtferbrains]

Bean oil up from 52cents in mid Dec to 76 cents now on May.

To save the planet from climate change we are going to replace FF oil with a big part of the veg oil crop and require 40% more acres in the next 8 years.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

WTI $101+

Some poor countries going to be hungry?

How much is price rationing going to effect overall demand on commodities?

Or is this going to be justification for even more coordinated money printing? How else can resource poor countries possibly continue to function? Only makes the problem worse in the long term of course.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

[shtferbrains]

Where is canola gonna stop ?
Up $33 right now

Now up $44
$1.00 bushel

WTI up $10.60

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Watching the grain markets today, a few conclusions I can make.
There are definitely some parties still on the wrong side of the trade on the expiring March contracts.
By the time new crop comes available, all of the problems in the world will have been solved.
We definitely need to panic about old crop values, we just have no idea which way we should be panicking.
Does that sound about right?

[Guest]

Anyone know what happened to 101 ?
Miss his input

[Sodbuster]

Made my first sale for new crop canola this morning, $975 ($22.10) Not really sure where this market is going, so I’m going to be patient until we have more info. To many factors this year, Ukraine, South America drought, North America drought, infrastructure, fertilizer and whatever else. Can’t go wrong at $22, so I’m taking a cookie off the plate while their still offering. Also so some old crop to Bunge for $26.65 for April, new record for my farm.

[crusher]

I had a warm fuzzy feeling on canola this morning but didn't act on it. Hopefully get another chance.

[JoeyJeremiah]

I had a warm fuzzy feeling on canola this morning but didn't act on it. Hopefully get another chance.

Knock on wood, but I have a feeling this thing is just getting wound up for a push through resistance. It should follow oil up. Barring any resolution in the war.

[ajl]

Got a little canola sold just over 26 for July. Just a little bit of unpriced left. Small crops can have big tail. From what I hear there is no export business at these prices, it will all have to go through the domestic market. With all the inflation going on many people can't afford to eat and will become food insecure. Right now the only thing that is bullish is our prime dufus talking up WW3 in europe but it sounds like not many are interested over there thankfully.

[wheatking16]

Canola hit my first level of interest and 1162 and came within $3 of tagging the second at 1180 before retesting the previous resistance at 1136ish.


My strategy tells me to be Long above 1130 and exit on a close below that level.

One may get chopped out but Rinse and Repeat.

My next level of interest where I would take profits are at 1180 and 1231.

[shtferbrains]

Canola yesterday was scary. Went full circle.
Up $20 to down $20.
Has to reflect on the basis unless buyers are trading live?
Margin calls have to be hard to keep up with.