Canola Futures Feeling the Energy... Oil up again!

[BreadWinner]

I agree Larry, we are still on a extreme drought situation in all of western Canada and upper states. If there ever was a time to hold grain for a explosion in prices into spring it might be this year. Not saying things won’t correct but it would take some kind of black swan event to drive prices lower.

[BreadWinner]

I really wonder how much uncommitted canola production is actually out in the farmyard. We have 2/3 not sold but Im thinking we are in the minority because we had very little priced before harvest. Im guessing 6mmt is already priced and committed out of 12.

[jazz]

Not saying things won’t correct but it would take some kind of black swan event to drive prices lower.

Not sure if you noticed there are swarm of black swans (or buzzards) circling over this economy.

In 2008 it just took one investment bank that few people ever heard of to crash it. Now we have dozens of such weak points in this global economy and the leverage has to be 10X higher.

[SASKFARMER]

Lots of 12 to 15 dollar canola has to be delivered or contracts not filled. But it's funny trucks moved at harvest and when guys filled you knew the trucks stopped. Heavy contract guys kept hauling.

[furrowtickler]

I really wonder how much uncommitted canola production is actually out in the farmyard. We have 2/3 not sold but Im thinking we are in the minority because we had very little priced before harvest. Im guessing 6mmt is already priced and committed out of 12.

I would say you are very close on both numbers , most guys here price 20% of average yields . Well this year that is now 80% . So that leaves only 20% unpriced .
And Larry’s number of 11 ish is where it will end up .
But I doubt stats can will drop it below 13

[Sodbuster]

I’m holding off sales until January, by then most contracts will have been hauled in and demand will be realized. Looking to start sales on wheat at $14, canola $25, oat $8. January USDA will be a pivotal report setting the tone for the remainder of crop year as next year’s acres will start to play a role. For now my targets are still moving.

[farming101]

Average price for exports of refined canola oil in August was $2,067.43 CAD/MT

In this environment it is clear that you charge whatever the market will bear. Thus the wide range of prices in Larry's chart.

The 14 pails or so sent to Oklahoma from Ontario must be weapons grade.

[LWeber]

Average price for exports of refined canola oil in August was $2,067.43 CAD/MT

In this environment it is clear that you charge whatever the market will bear. Thus the wide range of prices in Larry's chart.

The 14 pails or so sent to Oklahoma from Ontario must be weapons grade.

Plutonium enriched non GMO...lol

[furrowtickler]

A few things kinda stick out lately
Oil price , I remember back when oil was well over $100 several years ago , the word was $200 and would never fall below $100 again ...

Also nearly every time the chatter gets overly bullish on crop prices , something out of left field happens that no one seen coming and the new high floor levels collapse.

This may be “different this time” but it seems nearly every time things get too bullish , the bottom falls out

[Guest]

Not sure if you noticed there are swarm of black swans (or buzzards) circling over this economy.

In 2008 it just took one investment bank that few people ever heard of to crash it. Now we have dozens of such weak points in this global economy and the leverage has to be 10X higher.

Careful jazz
You’re sounding like Neil and the others
Sell,sell,sell!

[GDR]

What's the downward pressure on canola this week?

I read that Canadian futures usually run approx $50 under the Matif ****seed futures (europe) and if you do the conversion we are approx $120/mt under currently.

[wheatking16]

What's the downward pressure on canola this week?

I read that Canadian futures usually run approx $50 under the Matif ****seed futures (europe) and if you do the conversion we are approx $120/mt under currently.

I suspect it is due to Soybeans breaking down.






https://klarenbach.substack.com/

https://t.me/klarenbachresearch

[farming101]

October WASDE world Canola/r a p e seed forecasts
Ending stocks raised in October forecast. Also, (not shown) is a forecast reduction in use of about 1 MMT.
So, the sentiment seems to be that substitution or a resistance to high prices may cap use for this crop year.
USDA is using 13 MMT 2021 crop and ending stocks for 2020/21 of 1.767 MMT for Canada