Canola Futures Feeling the Energy... Oil up again!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You might want to ask 101 for a canola oil chart again...
@27 canola is $1190 with 0 basis ....

This is August values of canola oil...[ATTACH]8873[/ATTACH]

These are not all the sales - but you'll get the idea...
Canola meal was selling $325 - 375 in August.
Do the math ....

I used a middle of the road price of $2500 per MT, and $350 for the meal.

Works out to just over $1300 per MT for the end products.

There appears to be upside based on that.

But what is with the range of values? The first appears to be a typo, at 10 times more than any other value, but even with the rest, the highest is more than double the lowest. Or did the price appreciate that much throughout the month? Or does that reflect a range of dates when the purchases were made using futures? The highest being sold back in spring, the lowest being a year or more ago?

[LWeber]

I used a middle of the road price of $2500 per MT, and $350 for the meal.

Works out to just over $1300 per MT for the end products.

There appears to be upside based on that.

But what is with the range of values? The first appears to be a typo, at 10 times more than any other value, but even with the rest, the highest is more than double the lowest. Or did the price appreciate that much throughout the month? Or does that reflect a range of dates when the purchases were made using futures? The highest being sold back in spring, the lowest being a year or more ago?

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021004-eng.htm

[AlbertaFarmer5]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021004-eng.htm

Thanks.
How did you get it into the sort order and format you printed above? Did you create that yourself from the data? I'm not seeing any options to create that within.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Larry, late this summer when you discussed your yield model, you wouldn't actually tell us the number you calculated.

Are you willing to share yet?

[LWeber]

Larry, late this summer when you discussed your yield model, you wouldn't actually tell us the number you calculated.

Are you willing to share yet?

I'm at 11.413,849 - have been since August...

I just sorted the data from STATSCAN - high/low - it is a new website and a bit convoluted so far - but more info than the previous....

last year's production is the least of my worries...

[BreadWinner]

I agree Larry, we are still on a extreme drought situation in all of western Canada and upper states. If there ever was a time to hold grain for a explosion in prices into spring it might be this year. Not saying things won’t correct but it would take some kind of black swan event to drive prices lower.

[BreadWinner]

I really wonder how much uncommitted canola production is actually out in the farmyard. We have 2/3 not sold but Im thinking we are in the minority because we had very little priced before harvest. Im guessing 6mmt is already priced and committed out of 12.

[jazz]

Not saying things won’t correct but it would take some kind of black swan event to drive prices lower.

Not sure if you noticed there are swarm of black swans (or buzzards) circling over this economy.

In 2008 it just took one investment bank that few people ever heard of to crash it. Now we have dozens of such weak points in this global economy and the leverage has to be 10X higher.

[SASKFARMER]

Lots of 12 to 15 dollar canola has to be delivered or contracts not filled. But it's funny trucks moved at harvest and when guys filled you knew the trucks stopped. Heavy contract guys kept hauling.

[furrowtickler]

I really wonder how much uncommitted canola production is actually out in the farmyard. We have 2/3 not sold but Im thinking we are in the minority because we had very little priced before harvest. Im guessing 6mmt is already priced and committed out of 12.

I would say you are very close on both numbers , most guys here price 20% of average yields . Well this year that is now 80% . So that leaves only 20% unpriced .
And Larry’s number of 11 ish is where it will end up .
But I doubt stats can will drop it below 13