Canola Futures Feeling the Energy... Oil up again!

[TOM4CWB]

Tight Canadian supplies have helped lift canola futures to near the top of a three-month trading range but more recent strength – and future market direction – may be more closely tied to the energy complex.

"There seems to be a mindset shift occurring here, and its making canola become a pure energy play," said analyst Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm.

With crude oil, natural gas, and other energy markets seeing strength around the world, Jubinville said canola appears to be getting caught up in the updraft. As long as the bullish momentum is being maintained in the energy sector, it's hard to envision canola falling back in any sustained fashion, he added.

****seed grown in Europe is a major feedstock for biodiesel production there, with ****seed futures trading at record high levels. Jubinville expected activity in European ****seed would be a key feature to watch in the Canadian canola market.

"(But) if we have a change in momentum in the energy sector, that will extinguish this current rally," he added. ..."

Oil up again this morning.....$81.95 WTI Nov21, $84.45 Brent Dec21... Lumber up-$720 Nov21... NG 5.780Nov21

Happy Thanks Giving!!!

[SASKFARMER]

I have set my sites on 30 canola they can pay it and still make money on the oil and let's not forget the profit on the meal.

Wheat 15 is the magic number.

Happy Thanksgiving.

[furrowtickler]

Tight Canadian supplies have helped lift canola futures to near the top of a three-month trading range but more recent strength – and future market direction – may be more closely tied to the energy complex.

"There seems to be a mindset shift occurring here, and its making canola become a pure energy play," said analyst Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm.

With crude oil, natural gas, and other energy markets seeing strength around the world, Jubinville said canola appears to be getting caught up in the updraft. As long as the bullish momentum is being maintained in the energy sector, it's hard to envision canola falling back in any sustained fashion, he added.

****seed grown in Europe is a major feedstock for biodiesel production there, with ****seed futures trading at record high levels. Jubinville expected activity in European ****seed would be a key feature to watch in the Canadian canola market.

"(But) if we have a change in momentum in the energy sector, that will extinguish this current rally," he added. ..."

Oil up again this morning.....$81.95 WTI Nov21, $84.45 Brent Dec21... Lumber up-$720 Nov21... NG 5.780Nov21

Happy Thanks Giving!!!

That and the fact that Canadian canola production was way way overestimated and the actual production has been trimmed dramatically probably adds a bit to that picture Tom
Good post Tom , interesting view from Mike as usual 👍👍.

[BreadWinner]

Commodity prices are all headed a step higher and will establish a new trading range. $20 could be a new bottom of the trading range for canola. Im thinking it will be bouncing between $20 and &25 till feb then could maybe get to $27+ with shortages till July. Wheat is way underpriced and when the results from -5 frost in Australia come in the price will be taking a huge jump. Would be nice to get Mallee to chime in Australia crop conditions.

[Rareearth]

How high or what prices our commodities go will be related to crop prospects in Western Canada, and they will be at premiums over other producing countries. There is no down side price risk at this point as drought in Western Canada is intensifying, no amount of snow will make a bumper crop, next spring and summer rains will dictate price direction and in relation to world crop prospects and pricing levels.

The next harvest for 2022 by major crop exporters will be from north America - next August-September and thats a long time from now.

[Herc]

With harvest pretty much wrapped up, where did the canola production end up? Must be in that 13-15 MMT range.

[jazz]

With harvest pretty much wrapped up, where did the canola production end up? Must be in that 13-15 MMT range.

Statscan tomorrow I think? Will they find some extra bushels?

[BreadWinner]

Last stats can canola estimate was 12.57mmt, I still think this is too high. Sask Ag also thinks all crop numbers will have to be trimmed some. We won’t have a more accurate stats can number till Dec but probably will still be overestimated.

[LWeber]

Im thinking it will be bouncing between $20 and &25 till feb then could maybe get to $27+ with shortages till July.

You might want to ask 101 for a canola oil chart again...
@27 canola is $1190 with 0 basis ....

This is August values of canola oil...

These are not all the sales - but you'll get the idea...
Canola meal was selling $325 - 375 in August.
Do the math ....

[bucket]

Its so good to see saskcanola pay attention to information like this. Sarcasm.

While my canola checkoff is minuscule in the whole scheme of things....someone at that farm group should notice.

Wouldn't yah think.


Oh wait we have to sort out contract shortages for the board table members first, right????

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You might want to ask 101 for a canola oil chart again...
@27 canola is $1190 with 0 basis ....

This is August values of canola oil...[ATTACH]8873[/ATTACH]

These are not all the sales - but you'll get the idea...
Canola meal was selling $325 - 375 in August.
Do the math ....

I used a middle of the road price of $2500 per MT, and $350 for the meal.

Works out to just over $1300 per MT for the end products.

There appears to be upside based on that.

But what is with the range of values? The first appears to be a typo, at 10 times more than any other value, but even with the rest, the highest is more than double the lowest. Or did the price appreciate that much throughout the month? Or does that reflect a range of dates when the purchases were made using futures? The highest being sold back in spring, the lowest being a year or more ago?

[LWeber]

I used a middle of the road price of $2500 per MT, and $350 for the meal.

Works out to just over $1300 per MT for the end products.

There appears to be upside based on that.

But what is with the range of values? The first appears to be a typo, at 10 times more than any other value, but even with the rest, the highest is more than double the lowest. Or did the price appreciate that much throughout the month? Or does that reflect a range of dates when the purchases were made using futures? The highest being sold back in spring, the lowest being a year or more ago?

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021004-eng.htm

[AlbertaFarmer5]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021004-eng.htm

Thanks.
How did you get it into the sort order and format you printed above? Did you create that yourself from the data? I'm not seeing any options to create that within.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Larry, late this summer when you discussed your yield model, you wouldn't actually tell us the number you calculated.

Are you willing to share yet?

[LWeber]

Larry, late this summer when you discussed your yield model, you wouldn't actually tell us the number you calculated.

Are you willing to share yet?

I'm at 11.413,849 - have been since August...

I just sorted the data from STATSCAN - high/low - it is a new website and a bit convoluted so far - but more info than the previous....

last year's production is the least of my worries...