Crude oil skyrocketing

[jazz]

errol has a good handle on supply demand dynamics but I feel he doesnt account for the federal reserve and the layer of endless govt regulations being forced on us disguised as policy but probably closer to great reset ambitions.

Personally, I think the govt wants sky high oil without real alternatives. They have had 25 yrs to build solar panels and still havent. More like the goal is energy poverty.

[biglentil]

errol has a good handle on supply demand dynamics but I feel he doesnt account for the federal reserve and the layer of endless govt regulations being forced on us disguised as policy but probably closer to great reset ambitions.

Personally, I think the govt wants sky high oil without real alternatives. They have had 25 yrs to build solar panels and still havent. More like the goal is energy poverty.

Of course, all in the name of climate change. The promise of a panacea of the green economy all while knowing full well it will improvish the many. Build Back Better not for you or I.

Thing is Errol may very well be right there may be a deflationary debt spiral of a crash coming. Then they can claim it was due to the failure of capitalism and a lack of central planning. I highly doubt such an event will be a buying opportunity for those holding cash. At such a time physical commodities may be nearly unobtainium. In a world of infinite paper and failing economies physical goods are king.

[errolanderson]

errol has a good handle on supply demand dynamics but I feel he doesnt account for the federal reserve and the layer of endless govt regulations being forced on us disguised as policy but probably closer to great reset ambitions.

Personally, I think the govt wants sky high oil without real alternatives. They have had 25 yrs to build solar panels and still havent. More like the goal is energy poverty.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is running out of firepower very quickly. Money printing simply doesn't have the same jam anymore and the Fed knows it. That's why they want to slow the printing presses in 2022. It doesn't work anymore. Now stir in the ridiculous U.S. debt ceiling fiasco . . . .

And when reality strikes, the downside risk is immense, courtesy of central banks artificially supporting equity valuations well beyond. But investors are convinced (and have been conditioned) they are in a protected investment cocoon.

[biglentil]

The U.S. Federal Reserve is running out of firepower very quickly. Money printing simply doesn't have the same jam anymore and the Fed knows it. That's why they want to slow the printing presses in 2022. It doesn't work anymore. Now stir in the ridiculous U.S. debt ceiling fiasco . . . .

And when reality strikes, the downside risk is immense, courtesy of central banks artificially supporting equity valuations well beyond. But investors are convinced (and have been conditioned) they are in a protected investment cocoon.

Errol market implodes, wheels come off the supply chain and you buy what?

If 2008 is any guide the bail outs will be immense. Since then Trudeau put legislation that allowed for bail ins. If you are heavily in cash be prepared for a significant haircut right off the top of your savings account.

[errolanderson]

Errol market implodes, wheels come off the supply chain and you buy what?

Instant deflation . . . demand rules, not supply

[biglentil]

Instant deflation . . . demand rules, not supply

What we are seeing is that the supply side of the equation is just as important or maybe more so than the demand side. We live on a finite planet and supply of physical commodities are not easily ramped up. Mines take 15 years from discovery to production on average. Goods only come into existence 2 ways they are either mined or grown. Whether it's copper, zinc or oil the grades and return on energy invested has been on the decline for many years now.
The low hanging fruit has been picked so to speak. Then tack on the regulatory and environmental hurdles and nothing gets produced. I was told by a higher up at Enbridge that we will never see a new pipeline built again. Line 3 replacement I was paid for 6 years ago is still being blocked on the US side.

Money supply is growing many multiples faster than productivity.

[jazz]

Eric Nuttall

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/eric-nuttall-oil-investors-stand-vindicated-but-theres-no-time-for-a-victory-lap-heres-the-energy-playbook-for-the-rest-of-the-year

If I’m right that we will hit all-time high oil prices in the next two to three years, leading to a multi-year bull market, then the performance that we have seen so far is just the beginning and will lift all boats. Yet, there are times to be a bit more tactical in anticipating where the likely new funds flow will come from and where they are likely to go so as to maximize performance.

[Hamloc]

Eric Nuttall

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/eric-nuttall-oil-investors-stand-vindicated-but-theres-no-time-for-a-victory-lap-heres-the-energy-playbook-for-the-rest-of-the-year

If I’m right that we will hit all-time high oil prices in the next two to three years, leading to a multi-year bull market, then the performance that we have seen so far is just the beginning and will lift all boats. Yet, there are times to be a bit more tactical in anticipating where the likely new funds flow will come from and where they are likely to go so as to maximize performance.

I think Eric is right, Errol your pessimism on oil in my opinion isn’t warranted. As an example I was reading an article this morning about how European countries believe the answer is to double down on renewable energy as a response to high fossil fuel prices. So therefore less money will continue to be spent on oil and gas exploration guaranteeing a continued appreciation in prices. Governments are all collectively virtue signalling and won’t change coarse!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I think Eric is right, Errol your pessimism on oil in my opinion isn’t warranted. As an example I was reading an article this morning about how European countries believe the answer is to double down on renewable energy as a response to high fossil fuel prices. So therefore less money will continue to be spent on oil and gas exploration guaranteeing a continued appreciation in prices. Governments are all collectively virtue signalling and won’t change coarse!

While the alternative energies may make no sense at all where we live.. I do understand why Germany and their neighborhood would be willing to try any and everything to wean themselves off of Russian or Middle Eastern supplies of fossil fuels, which they are otherwise entirely reliant on.
Unfortunately for them it has been a spectacular and grossly expensive failure. But might yet be better than the alternative of being held hostage by malicious regimes for 100% of their energy needs. Price and reliability may be irrelevant if there are no other options.
But why we would willingly choose to follow them down this insane path is quite another question.

[furrowtickler]

Cheap renewable energy.... from 2020 before the run up in oil to be blamed on

[chuckChuck]

So the only reason electricity prices rose in Europe is because of renewables? And how do you know that?

There are 29 countries in the list with a wide range of generation sources, taxes, and system infrastructure in each country.

When I looked at the Saskpower farm rate over several years it had gone up about 3% per year on average. Saskpower is only adding relatively small amounts of renewables and their regulated rate rose about 30% over 10 years and is still much cheaper than the deregulated farm rates in Alberta.

So your chart is pretty much useless when it comes to understanding what is causing electricity prices to rise because the rises are very specific to each utility or country and generation costs are only a portion of total electricity costs.

But don't let that stop you from blaming it all on renewables.

[jazz]

Guess we have to explain it to chuck. Lets see, invest in unicorns, get pain. Simple as that.

Europe was the idiot green leader in the climate farce. Stopped oil and gas, shut down nuclear, spent trillons on solar and wind thats now idle and now having to go to Mr Putin for survival.

Sounds like the same stupidity our Pm Blackface wants to try.

There is NOTHING on this planet other than nuclear that will ever power our economy and basic necessities.

[chuckChuck]

https://www.ft.com/content/f37d2a36-4609-4b3e-9795-064b6d459676

From the Financial Times

The EU’s electricity market and why soaring gas prices are driving bills higher

Why is the price of electricity rising?

The average European household electricity bill is broken down into costs for taxes and VAT (about 35 per cent), network operator costs (30 per cent), and the unit cost of energy (about 35 per cent), according to figures from the EU’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).

At the heart of complaints from some countries is the EU’s energy pricing system. It operates on a common “pay as you clear” model where wholesale electricity costs reflect the price of the last unit of energy bought via auctions held in member states.

Generally gas is the fuel that is needed to make sure enough energy is supplied to meet demand.

So even in countries such as France — where cheaper nuclear power provides about 70 per cent of electricity — gas is still driving the wholesale electric price. And as the gas price has soared, so has the price of electricity.

Who benefits from how the market works?

The EU’s energy market has helped to bring down prices across Europe since the late 1990s by accelerating a shift away from long-term contracts for fossil fuels such as oil to less carbon-intensive natural gas and renewables bought on spot markets.

Because prices are based on shifting supply and demand dynamics, Europe has even experienced negative prices — most notably during the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 — when supply massively outweighed falling demand. Between 2019 and 2020, Europe’s households experienced a 20 per cent fall in the cost of gas, according to figures from Eurostat.

Jan Cornillie, research associate at the European University Institute, said the EU’s energy market had “delivered very low prices for years” but a confluence of recent factors — largely outside the control of policymakers — mean that “this is among the first times it is not working in our favour”.

[furrowtickler]

Blame game , the EU had the highest electricity costs well before oil prices went up .

[jazz]

Oh and how much money will Canada miss out by not having TMX and EE and Keystone online and all those LNG projects our Prime Retard cancelled? Probably enough to pay off our debt. We could be tankering it all to China and the EU now.

Good job ESG loons. Get woke go broke.