Crude oil skyrocketing

[jazz]

I have the same concern as wiseguy. On fixed acreage now to assume these rising costs becomes a problem. Sure some higher commodity prices soften the blow for a little while but it appears all expenses are moving rapidly to match. And if interest rates rise too, margins will start to evaporate again.

We appear to just be moving up to a new plateau where the same small margins in the business will be re-established.

[furrowtickler]

Maybe not a bad plan , get out before the Liberals steal thing you have taken a life time to achieve
My buddy cashed out this spring , auction here in November. He was tired of this b/s before , and it’s way worse now .
Got himself a very nice place at the lake , debts paid off and not worried at all anymore of being held hostage by input companies and getting screwed at the line companies.

We are going try to ride this out , good or bad , my heart and soul not ready to quit and my nephew is all in and deserves a shot . It will be difficult, but willing to fight to keep this farm out forefathers started well over a century ago from scratch with nothing for a better life . We can get by by being frugal for now , done it before and made it through . You don’t need 150lbs of N to grow a crop , we proved that to ourselves and have done very well . This year hurts but there are many ways to skin a cat or grow a crop by thinking outside the box and ignoring the input dealers maximum crop growing strategies . They fail more than they help even on average years .

The best right now would be for everyone to just walk away for the next year , and let these shortages choke on themselves. I strongly believe that at least 50% of this is made up b/s as an excuse to capture every last penny from the farmers to feed this swollen top heavy ag industry.

[Livewire]

I have the same concern as wiseguy. On fixed acreage now to assume these rising costs becomes a problem. Sure some higher commodity prices soften the blow for a little while but it appears all expenses are moving rapidly to match. And if interest rates rise too, margins will start to evaporate again.

We appear to just be moving up to a new plateau where the same small margins in the business will be re-established.

A new plateau where you are now having to spend drastically more dollars per acre with exponentially more risk to maybe make the same in the end. What could go wrong?

[shtferbrains]

I wonder how the energy industry is doing for people?
About everyone I know that worked there has made a new career at home. That includes some lifers that spent a lot of time traveling and were well paid for thier experience.

[woodland]

I wonder how the energy industry is doing for people?
About everyone I know that worked there has made a new career at home. That includes some lifers that spent a lot of time traveling and were well paid for thier experience.

I know out west here some service companies have called back a lot of those folks they let go. Just drilled a well south of us and seen five loads of new pipe go by so it must be a good hole. Employees are hard enough to find currently so I hope they don’t get too crazy busy……………

Crazy times😉

[Taiga]

Maybe not a bad plan , get out before the Liberals steal thing you have taken a life time to achieve
My buddy cashed out this spring , auction here in November. He was tired of this b/s before , and it’s way worse now .
Got himself a very nice place at the lake , debts paid off and not worried at all anymore of being held hostage by input companies and getting screwed at the line companies.

We are going try to ride this out , good or bad , my heart and soul not ready to quit and my nephew is all in and deserves a shot . It will be difficult, but willing to fight to keep this farm out forefathers started well over a century ago from scratch with nothing for a better life . We can get by by being frugal for now , done it before and made it through . You don’t need 150lbs of N to grow a crop , we proved that to ourselves and have done very well . This year hurts but there are many ways to skin a cat or grow a crop by thinking outside the box and ignoring the input dealers maximum crop growing strategies . They fail more than they help even on average years .

The best right now would be for everyone to just walk away for the next year , and let these shortages choke on themselves. I strongly believe that at least 50% of this is made up b/s as an excuse to capture every last penny from the farmers to feed this swollen top heavy ag industry.

Absolutely, I didn’t even break even on the grain side this year just counting seed and fert input costs, let alone every other expense. I got 4.5x the yield 3 years ago on same crop with zero fert applied. Can’t do much without rain. No way I am buying inputs now, total waste of money if the moisture conditions don’t change. Here anyway. The only thing I don’t have to buy is seed.
Lots of activity in the oilpatch right now, should be no problem making some money this winter if needed. Once LNG gets online I think we’ll see another boom period in my lifetime.

[burnt]

I know out west here some service companies have called back a lot of those folks they let go. Just drilled a well south of us and seen five loads of new pipe go by so it must be a good hole. Employees are hard enough to find currently so I hope they don’t get too crazy busy……………

Crazy times😉

Well I hope that means the drilling tool company my nephew from Edmonton works for can find work for him in Alberta again instead of having to travel to Saudi Arabia...

Can't build a pipeline to supply the east with oil, but we can bring blood oil here in tankers.

Things that make you shake your head.

[farming101]

Low 90's possible on this leg, might see 120 as early as this winter or as late as next fall.
A pullback to 60 very unlikely

[jdg364]

Low 90's possible on this leg, might see 120 as early as this winter or as late as next fall.
A pullback to 60 very unlikely

Should a person be filling up their Diesal tanks?? We are about a third full and will usually fill up during the winter months. Right now I’m leaning towards filling then I know I have it.

[bucket]

Taxpayer funded refineries at Lloyminster and Regina. (Thank you Grant Devine) and we are going to run out of diesel in saskatchewan?????..

Same goes for nitrogen fertilizer.

It wasn't built to compete or price against the world market. .it was built to ensure supply for saskatchewan...

When does diesel from FCL Regina end up anywhere in the world? Ffs.

[furrowtickler]

Will this change the lofty oil price projections ...

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-eu-line-up-over-20-more-countries-global-methane-pact-2021-10-11/

Also livestock are going to be targeted. This has been in the works a while but Canada just jumped all in officially now.

[chuckChuck]

from the International Energy Agency

What is behind soaring energy prices and what happens next?

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/what-is-behind-soaring-energy-prices-and-what-happens-next


Gas, coal and electricity prices have in recent weeks risen to their highest levels in decades. These increases have been caused by a combination of factors, but it is inaccurate and misleading to lay the responsibility at the door of the clean energy transition.

In this commentary, we provide an overview of the main drivers behind the current price increases and their near-term consequences.

The historic plunge in global energy consumption in the early months of the Covid-19 crisis last year drove the prices of many fuels to their lowest levels in decades. But since then, they have rebounded strongly, mainly as a result of an exceptionally rapid global economic recovery (this year is on track for the fastest post-recession growth in 80 years), a cold and long winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and a weaker-than-expected increase in supply.

Natural gas prices have seen the biggest increase, with European and Asian benchmark prices hitting an all-time record last week – around ten times their level a year ago. US month-ahead natural gas prices have more than tripled since October 2020 to reach their highest level since 2008. International coal prices are around five times their level a year ago, and coal power plants in China and India, the world’s two largest coal consumers, have very low stocks ahead of the winter season.

The strong increases in natural gas prices have prompted substantial switching to the use of coal rather than natural gas to generate electricity in key markets, including the United States, Europe and Asia. The increased use of coal is in turn is driving up CO2 emissions from electricity generation globally.

The current high coal and gas prices are not the result of a single “shock event” on the demand or supply side. Rather, they result from a combination of supply and demand factors that gradually tightened markets over the course of several months and even years.

Investments in oil and natural gas have declined in recent years as a result of two commodity price collapses – in 2014-15 and in 2020. This has made supply more vulnerable to the sorts of exceptional circumstances that we see today. At the same time, governments have not been pursuing strong enough policies to scale up clean energy sources and technologies to fill the gap.

Against this backdrop, both coal and natural gas demand recorded strong gains across key markets in the first half of 2021 as the global economy rebounded. Initial estimates suggest that natural gas and coal consumption in these key markets increased by 8% and 11% respectively, compared with the first half of 2020. As well as the economic recovery, these rises were driven by a number of weather-related events, including a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere, droughts that curtailed hydropower output in Brazil and elsewhere, and lower-than-average wind generation in Europe.

In terms of supply, both natural gas and coal have faced constraints. The Covid-19 lockdowns pushed some maintenance work from 2020 into 2021, which weighed on supply at a time when demand was recovering. The impact was particularly tangible in the UK and Norwegian areas of the North Sea Continental Shelf. In addition, unplanned outages at LNG liquefaction plants, upstream supply issues, unforeseen repair works, and project delays all further tightened the global gas market. The amount of global LNG supply affected by outages in the first nine months of 2021 was up by an estimated 27% compared with the average for the same period throughout 2015-2020 – with most of the outages unplanned. Russia’s Gazprom, while honouring its long-term supply contracts, reduced its exposure to short-term sales and has not replenished its own storage sites in Europe to the levels seen in previous years. Gas supplies from the Groningen fields in the Netherlands, which are being closed in 2022, continue to be reduced as planned.
More...

[jazz]

chuck you are absolutely blind as a bat.

Every single tick up in oil and gas and coal is due to you ESG loons telling the world some solar panels can save them.

What are you guys waiting for, now is your chance to cut oil off at the knees. Crank up those panels and windmills. Oh wait you need 100s of mines that take 10s yrs of permitting to dig out the REEs needed for the green utopia? LOL

[chuckChuck]

Those are not my words, they are from the International Energy Agency.

No doubt the far right conspiracy theorists will decide its all the fault of the energy transition.

It wouldn't be good ole supply and demand running up prices would it? LOL

I thought you all wanted high oil and gas prices so Alberta and the oil industry can prosper?

But I guess you forgot you would have to pay more for diesel, fertilizer, electricity and inputs?

[Oliver88]

I just used that number as an example. Any number has potential to provide a little extra something. My apologies to imply anything. I did a small amount in a couple companies in March and thankful for that. I follow Eric Nuttal, has been bang on for over a year

If oil stocks pull back that might be a good idea.