Natural Gas Plunge

[errolanderson]

Heavy drop in European gas prices over the weekend. Russian supplies being ramped-up plus moderate temps stateside. Nov nat gas broke below $5.10 per gigajoule.

This now reflects more than a 20 percent decline from recent highs approaching $6.50 per gig. The top may be in for nat gas prices (IMO).

[Hamloc]

Heavy drop in European gas prices over the weekend. Russian supplies being ramped-up plus moderate temps stateside. Nov nat gas broke below $5.10 per gigajoule.

This now reflects more than a 20 percent decline from recent highs approaching $6.50 per gig. The top may be in for nat gas prices (IMO).

I looked at the price of a U.K. Therm of natural gas this morning. It was 247.5 pence per therm(100000 btu). That is for November. Last time I looked about a week ago it was virtually the same. Now if you translate that to Canadian dollars per gigajoule they are paying $38.08 per gigajoule. Yikes!!

As far as the top being in we haven’t even started the winter heating season yet. Looking at morning headlines I see coal and crude oil prices still on the rise.

[jazz]

If any of the El Nino forecasts even come to happen NG is going right back up.

The ESG crowd halted new FF expansions and investments in energy now the entire sector needs $500B in investment just to meet near future demand.

[JankoFarms]

Is it really a plunge when levels are so high Errol? Many of the fertilizer plants in Europe are shut down because of the nat gas prices over there, so I think prices have a ways to go down before it would be any type of meaningful correction.

[wheatking16]

I am interested in how the price reacts to the 50 DMA in the low 360's.

I have drawn a grey rectangle level of interest indicating the 50 DMA and previous supply.



https://klarenbach.substack.com/

https://t.me/klarenbachresearch

[errolanderson]

Is it really a plunge when levels are so high Errol? Many of the fertilizer plants in Europe are shut down because of the nat gas prices over there, so I think prices have a ways to go down before it would be any type of meaningful correction.

The tide can change quickly. I’m old and grizzled enough to have witnessed many markets turn upside down quickly, especially when the bulls are all on one side of the ship, which they are right now.

With the sudden drop in nat gas, can crude be far behind? Technical damage today (IMO) Remember, there is no shortage of energy stocks, but an ambudance-of-manipulation.

[ajl]

A big question is does this drop in NG get ammonia production that is shut in back on line. Would be nice to know when the the fertilizer dealers can stop jacking prices. That would be when you can figure out how much you need to get for unpriced grain.

[errolanderson]

A big question is does this drop in NG get ammonia production that is shut in back on line. Would be nice to know when the the fertilizer dealers can stop jacking prices. That would be when you can figure out how much you need to get for unpriced grain.

The supply chain is already in-recovery and will repair itself fairly quickly (IMO). If the stock market cracks and supply chain recovers, inflation will be dead-in-its-tracks.

We'll all then revisit the 'debt crisis' once again which has been temporarily hidden by inflation.

[Hamloc]

The tide can change quickly. I’m old and grizzled enough to have witnessed many markets turn upside down quickly, especially when the bulls are all on one side of the ship, which they are right now.

With the sudden drop in nat gas, can crude be far behind? Technical damage today (IMO) Remember, there is no shortage of energy stocks, but an ambudance-of-manipulation.

Henry Hub natural gas has dropped from $6.31 Oct. 5 to $4.98 this morning, so yes a 20% drop. Natural gas prices in Europe have not dropped as much. Brent and WTI still going up as Oil is now being substituted for natural gas. If there is no shortage of energy stocks why are oil and coal still increasing in price? Do I think high energy prices will slow economic growth? Certainly but I don’t think as we are entering winter in the Northern hemisphere that we will see a moderation in energy prices with the present policy direction of European and North American governments. They are trying to force a transition before the infrastructure is in place.

[wheatking16]

I am interested in how the price reacts to the 50 DMA in the low 360's.

I have drawn a grey rectangle level of interest indicating the 50 DMA and previous supply.

[ATTACH]8940[/ATTACH]

https://klarenbach.substack.com/

https://t.me/klarenbachresearch

Buyers stepped in at the 50 DMA.

Now we wait.