Canola

[AlbertaFarmer5]

A while back we discussed the repeating pattern that has been very predictable in the canola market for many months now.
Every long red bar is followed by a steady climb that goes higher than the red bar.

I should have been trading it when I first noticed. Not many things in life are that guaranteed.

Whenever I see such repeating patterns in a market, I wonder why the traders, user, producers, algo's and investors, would not front load for such events, to the point that they cease to exist. Same with seasonal chart patterns.

[wheatking16]

A while back we discussed the repeating pattern that has been very predictable in the canola market for many months now.
Every long red bar is followed by a steady climb that goes higher than the red bar.

I should have been trading it when I first noticed. Not many things in life are that guaranteed.

Whenever I see such repeating patterns in a market, I wonder why the traders, user, producers, algo's and investors, would not front load for such events, to the point that they cease to exist. Same with seasonal chart patterns.

Buying the dip is more difficult than it seems.

BTFD works until it doesn't with the pain of loss being greater than the pleasure of gain.

Losses loom larger than gains.

Buyers tend to want lower prices until they get them.

Investing and trading are all about pattern recognition and that is great that you found something that works for you.

I am very interested in how it works out.

Keep us posted.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Buying the dip is more difficult than it seems.

BTFD works until it doesn't with the pain of loss being greater than the pleasure of gain.

Losses loom larger than gains.

Buyers tend to want lower prices until they get them.

Investing and trading are all about pattern recognition and that is great that you found something that works for you.

I am very interested in how it works out.

Keep us posted.

To clarify. I'm not buying futures. Already long two crops in the bins, and almost three, since we have 2022 inputs purchased, with no canola priced. I think that is enough risk without being Texas hedged too.

But for those unable to partake in this rally with physical, it might be a good strategy. Use a tight stop below the bottom of the red bar. Then let it ride for a few weeks at a time.

[beaverdam]

RSX21, Nov Canola up over $50/t this morning.

Anybody still holding a basis contract, that can still be triggered?

Contract is not having a quiet, obscure, departure.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

RSX21, Nov Canola up over $50/t this morning.

Anybody still holding a basis contract, that can still be triggered?

Contract is not having a quiet, obscure, departure.

Are any elevators/crushers still pricing off of November?

Is this squeeze related to a physical shortage, or just paper as the contract expires?

[Guest]

RSX21, Nov Canola up over $50/t this morning.

Anybody still holding a basis contract, that can still be triggered?

Contract is not having a quiet, obscure, departure.

went through that in july
they just tell you theres no buyer
so , no

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Did today's action do any harm to the charts?
Is this considered an outside reversal?
Ignoring the November but January and forward made a new high then closed below yesterday's close. At least they came back and closed well off the lows of the day.

[farming101]

In the Jan a sloppy bearish advance block was printed with today's price action being the confirmation.
Might be some attempts to push prices lower in here. Stop loss would be at yesterday's high

[wheatking16]

There is a lot of blue sky above the recent high.

If new highs are made, then my next levels of interest are 970 and 1018, and will reassess if they are reached.

I have no idea when or if that will happen.

The challenge of being deterministic in a probabilistic world.

[ATTACH]8998[/ATTACH]

Both levels of interest hit.

Time to reassess.

Will the price push to 1150?

[wheatking16]

Still having difficulty with this UI....

Here is the chart with my 1150 level of interest.

[beaverdam]

Nov up $30/t again this morning

Over 1200 in OI

Someone is being made to pay!

todays high, $1037/t

[farming101]

Many thousands of Nov 21 calls expired last Friday. Held on right to end.
And a good many were well in the money.
Cha-ching