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Natural Gas and fert prices

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    #25
    Im not gonna comment on fert prices, the economics will work regardless, I'm more worried about availability. Not saying it'll work if you feed it for 50% higher yield than you've previously grown either. But on the ng side it's basically been free from shale oil production and those wells decline at a staggering rate without fracking. Our arctic is absolutely loaded with NG, in a previous life in the oil exploration game early 90s esso etc spent tons of $ pounding the hell out of it. It's there. Back to shale, the free ng is coming to an end, off the top of my head, ng has been in decline for 21~ years roughly as a result of shale. Im using $6 as the long term breakout. Then 8.80 and $14. We are past the 3 month time period so this is more than a reaction. There's a decent seasonal long coming up. I don't like the short side at all. The NG sector is definite investment buy and hold material in my eyes. 21 years was a long run and this could produce 7 at minimum.....

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      #26
      Originally posted by 4GFarms View Post
      I guess I am not a chart reader. Will keep my day job. Thanks for the insight Jazz and company. Looks like fert prices are here to stay.
      Nothing stays up forever, markets are a cycle and always will be.

      Can fertilizer prices drop back, absolutely, but when and timing is another question.

      Remember, the huge drop in shipping costs now in-progress. Russia holding back production, but that may have the shelf life of $80 plus crude during a global recession (IMO).

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        #27
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          #28
          I think the fert prices will be hard to swallow meaning less crop and higher prices but the same end dollars. Not sure next year will be as good as this year

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            #29
            Just rearranging the deck chairs - gas for coal - renewables still a non factor in base generation.

            By companies trying to get out from Trudeaus climate Gestapo they switch to a fuel that has much broader implications including home heating and food production.

            People wanted climate action, they are going to get it hard now.

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              #30
              "I’m afraid we’re going to have a food crisis’: The energy crunch has made fertilizer too expensive to produce", says Yara CEO

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                #31
                Originally posted by jazz View Post
                Just rearranging the deck chairs - gas for coal - renewables still a non factor in base generation.

                By companies trying to get out from Trudeaus climate Gestapo they switch to a fuel that has much broader implications including home heating and food production.

                People wanted climate action, they are going to get it hard now.

                [ATTACH]9124[/ATTACH].
                Interesting that COP26 [and PM JT] has talked about restricting movement of people... to reduce energy consumption.

                Getting used to COvid passports... just think about needing a pass to leave home in your vehicle.... and being taxed as we are motion traced in our daily lives.

                Wow, the Pandemic really did set us up for a reset and 'new world order'!!!

                Cheers! Just the type of climate change message we all appreciate. We are going to 'save the world, come Hell or Highwater' Literally!!! One to add to the 'favorite sayings' list...

                Don't you just love English humour!!!

                Warms a cold day up fast! Cheers

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                  #32
                  There may be a significant number of Europeans whose most pressing concern is keeping the water pipes from bursting this winter -

                  Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline faces another delay after Germany suspended a key step in the approval process, sending European gas prices


                  Maybe it's just me, but doesn't there seem to be a glaring dissonance in those who claim to be saving the earth when they shut down critical infrastructure, causing the helpless masses to freeze and starve?

                  Things that make you go hmmm...

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                    #33
                    Originally posted by burnt View Post
                    There may be a significant number of Europeans whose most pressing concern is keeping the water pipes from bursting this winter -

                    Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline faces another delay after Germany suspended a key step in the approval process, sending European gas prices


                    Maybe it's just me, but doesn't there seem to be a glaring dissonance in those who claim to be saving the earth when they shut down critical infrastructure, causing the helpless masses to freeze and starve?

                    Things that make you go hmmm...
                    Reminds me of the old saying I heard from the commodity pit floor some 40 years ago...[much older than that...]

                    "If you don't have money... you don't matter"...

                    Haunting... in todays economic conundrums... $60,000 bitcoins... Trillion $ EV, tech companies...[Teslas, Apple] $1M: Combines, seeders, and tractors...

                    Cheers

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                      #34
                      Originally posted by burnt View Post
                      There may be a significant number of Europeans whose most pressing concern is keeping the water pipes from bursting this winter -

                      Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline faces another delay after Germany suspended a key step in the approval process, sending European gas prices


                      Maybe it's just me, but doesn't there seem to be a glaring dissonance in those who claim to be saving the earth when they shut down critical infrastructure, causing the helpless masses to freeze and starve?

                      Things that make you go hmmm...
                      Anouther that makes me go hmmm is all those big buildings in the city that are designed with natural gas heat.

                      Will they gut RUH in Saskatoon to convert to electric by 2030? Just one example of millions.

                      Are the building the are building now electric.
                      Would that make them easier or harder to lease.

                      Maybe won't need any more ?£

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