Canola price & land prices

[quadtrac]

Well almost a year later now and what has changed?
Costs higher. Interest rates higher. Grain prices down somewhat.
And land is still yet higher.
What are are others seeing ?

[furrowtickler]

Well almost a year later now and what has changed?
Costs higher. Interest rates higher. Grain prices down somewhat.
And land is still yet higher.
What are are others seeing ?

Scared to ask

[ajl]

I am seeing some more land coming up for sale and we will likely see more as the fall progresses. Premier auctions has 5 quarters south of Camrose coming up in November. A week later there is a half 10 miles east of Camrose on CLH. I like to watch auctions as they are real valuation rather than old land owners figuring what their land is worth. Usually land is never for sale around Camrose. The higher interest rates could get the sales that have been postponed for the decade or more on the go. Stay tuned. 5.25% GIC: gicwealth.ca

[bucket]

The guys buying land at highs know the system better than the guys lending them the money.

Chances are lenders will be booted before the guy buying land lose it.

[macdon02]

So I keep hearing my neighbours getting excited to buy more land at any price. They keep citing $20+ canola and doing math on that.

Here is a 30y canola chart. Not sure I’d take the story of sustained $20 canola to the bank just yet.

What was the roof is now the floor, commodities "ratchet". So we will see a sub 700 test, don't start thinking the sky is falling when it happens. The program I'm using says higher prices into 2027, so target the previous years high as the sell point. Flooding in Australia again signaling NA drought possibility again. It's my opinion we are in the mirror image of the flood years, except drought. It's an 8 year trend and if you were a winner during the wet years, it ain't your years coming up. The fundamentals are firmly in place with this renewable diesel kick. The refiners are pocketing $6/gal to use veg oil rather than crude. It's just a matter of when virtue signaling Joe Blow finally taps out and says he can't afford this brain dead ideology any more. Nothing is going back to pre covid, financially. Hope everyone is/ was able to put some bushels in the bin this year. January should be interesting, as well as the week of Nov 7

[FarmJunkie]

Glad to see u back Macdon. What u seeing for grain prices in the next 6 months?

[shtferbrains]

The issue is land prices always seemed a little more than what seemed reasonable.
Even when it was "cheap" few wanted the risk and investor money came in at bargin prices and looked like wizards.
In the late 80's there was large quantities of prime acres sat for years at less than $500/acres.
Shoulda~Coulda!

[jdg364]

Circling back to the land craze, I think there will be more land being sold this winter as people can finally get paid to put money in the bank. Everyone gets older and inheritance’s are easier when dealing with dollars and cents then 1/4’s

I never farmed in the 80s, but I still have grey hair.. and I believe (and this will sounds crazy) land is still undervalued.

The reason I believe this is for a few reasons.. priced out some new equipment this fall; a large combine with 50’ header was 1.4 million, 135’ sprayer 850k, a nice pickup truck is closing in on 100k with taxes, a house sells in 3 days in Saskatoon for over asking price. My point to all of this is in 10 years I’d rather own that piece of land, even with a 25% price reduction, than a worn out combine, busted up sprayer, rusted truck or a house that needs to be remodelled.

A person just has to make sure he can stay afloat and not get caught making interest only pmts. And don’t use the rainy day fund for the down pmt.. that’s for when shit hits the fan!!

[macdon02]

Glad to see u back Macdon. What u seeing for grain prices in the next 6 months?

Well, the first thing you need to recognize is currency, Dr Death is traveling country to country and taking the scythe to everyone that's a component of the US $ index, Europe likely won't keep the lights on this winter, and if they do, they don't have enough water in their river system to transport or keep the herd happy. They are imploding, the union is done. Japan, well if you haven't heard the yen finally broke out of its eternal continuation pattern, it's dead. British pound, yeah old news now. So the loonie, $1.40 is the level on forex in watching, is confederation over? $1.40 is the level that will decide that, otherwise we keep trading as a oil currency, stronger than expected. Now the target on USD is 200 at this point, the Mississippi doesn't have enough water either and short of a hurricane replenishing it, they are gonna have issues moving product as well. I'm expecting stronger than normal basis, we are already seeing it. If canola can get over the 912 level, it has legs and lots of them, 1300~ ish As long as no peace talks happen in eastern Europe we are going to see traditionally "outstanding" grain prices, hence the ratchet. Wheat, is my nemesis, but I'll take stab at Chicago #'s, I'm expecting $18. November is a turn point and it'll be significant either way, it just needs to punch through the 940 level and it's gone. The rumor mill says we see mushroom clouds in Ukraine Nov 7 week

Here's a map of the fert and chem plants in Europe that are throttled due to ng availability, it's probably worse now, unless the new pipe announced same day as NS ruptured fills the gap... the most important is that chem plant a they produce a lot of our active ingredients. Then we got Brazil, if they change president's, that idiot Lula is promising to destroy agriculture. So I don't know where the fat kids are getting their donuts and French fries because California and BC are taking every bushel of canola we grow for diesel, North America will be an importer of veg oil with current regulation veg oil for fuel. It helps to know well connected Americans that have spent time on a trading floor. We are being slow played on the significance of Clean Fuels, and the Inflation Reduction act. Both are LOADED with subsidies to Big Oil to not use crude, it just comes down to when does the USD top out and gold breaks out with its hair on fire because as we've already seen here in Canada, people are losing confidence in govt like never seen. Did watch an interesting video with Charlie Munger that fits this, he figures all currency goes to 0. Japan had no currency for 600 years because the emperors kept devaluing. It's what you can touch and defend that holds value. Something will be used for transactions, but wealth won't be held in a bank or in paper of any form. And here's what's important when that happens, the story of a Bosnian

https://prephole.com/surviving-a-year-of-shtf-in-90s-bosnia-war-selco-forum-thread-6265/

[jazz]

Macdon, doesnt sound like we will live long enough to see $45 canola.

The USD is the wrecking ball through the worlds economy no doubt and there is another 150 basis point rate rise coming before eoy.

The calls on the VIX are off the chart. Something is coming.