New crop prices?

[bucket]

So I see some new crop prices for September 2022. Durum at 10 bucks , historically high new crop price at this point but half price of current year and glyphosate and fertilizer are double. That can't be good.

Flax is at 18 which is the same scenario. Half price of current year but inputs are double.

Wheat is holding at 9 bucks but I don't think the current crop year has made its run yet.

Canola at 16.25 but with the dryness and the inputs...

Who is willing to sign at these levels?

And wasn't there comments made that farmers are willing to pay for inputs because of higher crop prices...thats such a line of bullshit.


Thoughts?

[Partners]

Waiting till next July..

[TOM4CWB]

So I see some new crop prices for September 2022. Durum at 10 bucks , historically high new crop price at this point but half price of current year and glyphosate and fertilizer are double. That can't be good.

Flax is at 18 which is the same scenario. Half price of current year but inputs are double.

Wheat is holding at 9 bucks but I don't think the current crop year has made its run yet.

Canola at 16.25 but with the dryness and the inputs...

Who is willing to sign at these levels?

And wasn't there comments made that farmers are willing to pay for inputs because of higher crop prices...thats such a line of bullshit.


Thoughts?

It might be possible to create minimum price contracts that can be canceled with the typical Act of God clause. 20 years ago this was much more common, especially in special crops.

Time to coax our marketing partners in to bringing back these types of marketing options again!

The types of prices available now have margins that could make this type of opportunity affordable.

Only our imagination limits what is possible!!!

Cheers

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Should be plenty of time before one needs to lock in any fall prices, my guess is well into May, at that time moisture conditions will be more apparent as well as world production. Those prices will creep steadily higher if it looks like the drought will be ongoing.

Get a trading account in order to isolate from production issues.

The trouble with that theory, is that by the time it is apparent to us producers, what the moisture conditions and world production is, it's also apparent to the rest of the market participants and therefore too late to price, because the risk premium will be gone.

[Tucker]

Grow it. Bin it. Sell it. Paid off great this year. I think I'll stick with that plan again. I know it's not a situation that is possible for a lot of farmers but I've been lucky enough that it's the way I can run this farm.

[makar]

Grow it. Bin it. Sell it. Paid off great this year. I think I'll stick with that plan again. I know it's not a situation that is possible for a lot of farmers but I've been lucky enough that it's the way I can run this farm.

All I grew was wheat this year, grew it, binned it and no one will buy it.

[Tucker]

All I grew was wheat this year, grew it, binned it and no one will buy it.

I'm getting $12 for my Faller right now. ??

[makar]

I'm getting $12 for my Faller right now. ??

Price here closer to 13 no one buying, I got bills to pay.

[4GFarms]

You are the same as us Tucker. We were fortunate not to pre price anything so we are doing ok. We don’t like selling something we don’t/haven’t produced. Worked well for us this year.

[newguy]

They probably do not expect anyone to take them up on those prices yet.That is put there to convince farmers to sell some more now.I believe selling has stalled and they will try anything to get more without raising prices.

[Guest]

without an act of god clause , they will have slim pickings
many had a close shave this year
everyone that signed lost billions
TOO F U C K I N G DRY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jdg364]

I think people are selling a little n/c oats at $6-6.50, double the typical off combine price. Everything else needs to run a little more.. waiting for $18 cnl, not sure if it will get there though.

Would forward sale maybe 10-15% if comfortable with moisture. IMO.

[Lexion760tt]

Got $10 for sept 13.5 hrs #2 and $17 hit today on sept canola. Pigs get fat hogs get slaughtered. I don’t care where prices go from here if that’s lowest price I get I’ll survive.

[poorboy]

My grain buyer thinks fall sales should be for a 3cwrs 12.0 protein. Grade and protein spreads very narrow right now.

It is very dry here right now, but it looks like the northern canadian prairie grain belt has got decent moisture since August and the Dakotas have got lots of fall rain. Indicates to me that some areas should have crops next year, and probably not as poor an overall crop as in 2021.

[GALAXIE500]

Grow it. Bin it. Sell it. Paid off great this year. I think I'll stick with that plan again. I know it's not a situation that is possible for a lot of farmers but I've been lucky enough that it's the way I can run this farm.

I am hoping that down in our corner of the world we can actually "grow" some sort of a crop that is better than a 8 bu/ac average next year. Hoping for some more nice fall weather , then it can snow/rain , I don't care.

An open winter this year will make next year a real challenge. Rain is all we need to make it better , oh and Trudeau stepping down and going away like a bad dream!


Here's hoping!