Durum Dulldrums

[BTO780]

Durum market sure hasn’t done much in the last month or so. Seems to be in deep lull. Stubborn grain companies want good ol useless targets but they won’t pick up any, not even ones that are ten cents above spot price.

There will come a time when they will have to open the purse strings. A 19 bu crop avg isn’t going to go very far. Countries like Italy have a law where they can’t substitute anything in replace of durum.

I suspect if the crop is 19 there is likely 12 bu left to sell, minus 2 bu for seed leaves 10 left for sale.

I’m waiting this out and not giving into the crooks.

[bucket]

Looks like a slowdown in movement to the west coast for a while. If a snow storm can slow it down , what is going to happen with the tracks wiped out?

Can't use Churchill it is shut down for two years .

So there is Prince Rupert

And Thunder Bay that should be or is it closed already for the season?

[BTO780]

Hopefully the states comes to the table. They also had a lethargic crop. Shipping domestically comes at a way cheaper cost. North Africa is dry!!
Not saying these prices today aren’t good, just circumstances surrounding them makes me think they should be better.

[bucket]

Hopefully the states comes to the table. They also had a lethargic crop. Shipping domestically comes at a way cheaper cost. North Africa is dry!!
Not saying these prices today aren’t good, just circumstances surrounding them makes me think they should be better.

New crop at $10+ but considering that we are drier than 2020 at this time and the inputs are double, 10 bucks isn't really going to cut it for 2022 crop.

[BTO780]

There will be huge durum acres next yr. One big rain during seeding $10 will be a good price.
Grain companies don’t give a rats azz how high our inputs are.

[TASFarms]

There will be huge durum acres next yr. One big rain during seeding $10 will be a good price.
Grain companies don’t give a rats azz how high our inputs are.

Going to need a lot more than one rain. Is the same saying as last year applicable this year? “We need above average rain fall for a below average crop”

[Rareearth]

Acres next year? I doubt a major shift will happen. Seed is through the roof, the “ atmospheric microwave” accelerating the worst drought in 250 years is a problem.

Not much durum is exported at this time of year. Only trains going south, otherwise grain companies pick away all winter to get ready for spring shipping through the St Lawrence to Europe, N Africa ( also in a “atmospheric microwave” caused by increase sun spot activity.

Not sure what’s happening with Prince Rupert rail lines? Not only out bound grain commodities will be impacted but inbound freight as well.

[bucket]

I will say this.

It would be surprising if CN and CP haven't already asked for some infrastructure spending this morning.

[wmoebis]

Looks like a slowdown in movement to the west coast for a while. If a snow storm can slow it down , what is going to happen with the tracks wiped out?

Can't use Churchill it is shut down for two years .

So there is Prince Rupert

And Thunder Bay that should be or is it closed already for the season?

Can also rail right to Montreal or one of the ports on Seaway. Years ago the CWB did a trial of shipping grain down the Mississippi too bad Ritz shredded all those files so we could see if it was feasible today with a few changes.

[zeefarmer]

There will be huge durum acres next yr. One big rain during seeding $10 will be a good price.
Grain companies don’t give a rats azz how high our inputs are.

How many guys are going to risk durum on lentil/pea/chickpea stubble that had Solo in 2021? Especially if crop insurance won't cover it?

[Rareearth]

Fusarium, durums the worst

Wheat midge, durum is the worst

[BTO780]

How many guys are going to risk durum on lentil/pea/chickpea stubble that had Solo in 2021? Especially if crop insurance won't cover it?

There will be lots of durum on durum especially with huge amounts of N in the ground. Not too many will plant a pulse into high N.
Any canola stubble will have durum.
Chickpea stubble “should” be ok for durum.
Yes, lentil and pea will be “risky”.