Fertilizer prices today will bankrupt most farms with a hiccup next year. PERIOD!

[Guest]

partners is the smart one here , he's got er all in the ground, and bought cheap !!!

[jdg364]

Producers (IMO) will have to be very careful when figuring out how much they want to risk come spring. We are in a higher rainfall/producing area and usually go with 140# for cnl and 120# actual nitrogen on average.

This year we are trying to keep our Fert costs under $150/ac and there’s the dilemma.. do you mine the ground and which nutrient gets cut the most. We are rolling our fertilizer program back 10-15 years and basically going 75-80% of our 2021 fertilizer program.

We don’t want to miss 2022 crop prices but I don’t want to risk our farm on flopping from another drought.

[quadtrac]

Automatically assuming fert prices will drop back to sensible prices for 2023 is sure not an idea to bank on IMO.

Everyone including myself hates this fert price but as long as grain prices hold I think we’re all dreaming that it’ll correct in price for 2023 let alone in time for seeding this coming year.

Only way that’ll happen is if grain prices fall back to where they were a couple years.

They will gauge every penny they can from farmers if they think they can squeeze more from us.
Every last thing. Fert, fuel, parts, iron, everything.

[Guest]

and heres a reminder of 2 years ago , pricing text;


RICHARDSON PIONEER: Oct 11
**WE WILL NEED SAMPLES OF WHEAT TO TEST FOR FALLING NUMBER BEFORE DELIVERIES. **

RED SPRING WHEAT (1R 13.5)
(additional premiums or discounts to apply for grades, protein & falling number)
HFN (High falling number of 290 +), LFN (Low falling number of 251-289)
Nov: $6.37 (2R HFN: $6.17, 2R LFN: $5.77)
Dec: $6.40
Mar: $6.65
June: $6.77
FEED WHEAT (FN of 250 or less)
Oct: $4.54
Nov-Dec: $4.29
Jan-Feb: $4.42

CANOLA-DLVD ELEVATOR
Oct: $9.42 **Triggering $9.50 Targets****
Nov: 9.54
Dec: $9.62
Mar: $9.93
Sept 2020: $9.73
Dec 2020: $9.90
CANOLA-DLVD YORKTON
Dec: $10.06
Jan: $10.18
Mar: $10.49
Sept: $10.36

OATS
Nov & Dec: 3.00
Jan: $3.15
Apr: $3.25

FEED BARLEY:
Sept-Oct: $3.12
Nov-Dec: $3.25
Jan-Mar: $2.90

and we wondered why we prepriced ??
the real crunch will come when these inputs overlap these prices , and they will

[Guest]

fert dealer said there is no way all the juice cans behind drills will get filled when they need to next spring

[TASFarms]

fert dealer said there is no way all the juice cans behind drills will get filled when they need to next spring

Doesn’t sound like a good business partner

[Oliver88]

fert dealer said there is no way all the juice cans behind drills will get filled when they need to next spring

From what I understand, this fall had two planned preventative maintenance shutdowns for Western Canada NH3 production during the fall NH3 season.

Should we buy Nutrien shares?

[jdg364]

I wonder if the recent drop in our CAD dollar will give fertilizer prices another reason to push higher?

[GALAXIE500]

Run those numbers on less than 1/2 the yield

Run those numbers on a 8-11 bpa durum crop ( summerfallow) and 3-5 bu/ac durum crop on stubble. That's what our area had for a crop this year.

Not good, but here's hoping we get some snow!
I had to put in a picture of an old Ford just because.

[tweety]

The grain prices this year has maybe shown you that fertilizing till you're broke to ensure over supply and low prices isn't a good economic model for farming - but great for every other industry.

Or at least it should have. By the posts, it hasn't.

It's like you're programmed to spend as much as possible to ensure every other industry stays viable at the cost of viability of your own because that is what makes you a top grower, and everyone has to be and takes tremendous pride in being a top grower, right? If not, you're a laggard, low tech, not innovative, a terrible farmer that just doesn't "get it".

After all, we have starving mouths to feed in 2050 - so overproduce food today. Thanks Rob Saik for that continuing message.

Start catching on to the over production scam constantly messaged. Grow more. And more. And more.