Fertilizer prices today will bankrupt most farms with a hiccup next year. PERIOD!

[SASKFARMER]

Anhydrous Actual 120 lbs an acre or 46 x 2.7 times to get the equivalent.

Price 140lbs x 1.11 = $155.00 an acre for nitrogen. or use example 10000 acre farm $1,554,000.00

That is just for your ammonia.

Now take in this example half canola and half wheat.

5000 canola x 150 lbs S-15 at $1175 x 340 tons = $399,840.00
5000 Wheat x 125 Lbs S-10 at $1245 x 283 tons = $352,335.00

Total for the farm needed for 2022. To expect to grow a max crop. $2,306,175.00 or at todays locked in price half and half Canola 17 and wheat 10.
Canola you will give 70000 bushels away just to cover your basic cost of Fert.Or almost 14 bushels an acre.
Wheat you will give 115,308 bushels away just to cover your basic fert costs. Or 23 BPA.

So if its a disaster and you grow 15 canola and 20 wheat your ****ed right from the Go.

Now look at your soil tests.

Most have a bit in the ground.

We grew crops up to 50 BPA with 50 lbs nitrogen and 75 lbs starter back in the 90s with decent moisture or adequate moisture. If none who gives a ****.

50 lbs nitrogen will cost 55.50 an acre across the board. $555,000.00 total nitrogen cost.

75 lbs starter fert.

170 tons s15 x 1175 = $199,926.00

170 tons S10 x 1245 = $211,650.00

Total $411,576.00 or 41 an acre

Total fert 96.00 an acre.

Wheat you need 9.6 bPA to pay for your product.
Canola you need 5.65 to pay for your product.

So you will survive and if it does rain add later or just run the year and say **** it.

Now lets look at the original you need

90 BPA wheat at 10 to give you 960 dollars a acre but if we all grow that number wheat will be 6 so lets spit the difference and use 8 dollars a bushel 720 dollars an acre.

Canola you need 72 at 17 again if you grow 72 you will get 11 for the rest so 14 dollars a bushel 1008 an acre.

Same scenario 50 wheat and 40 canola

We did it before in the 90s with those numbers and didn't have the amount in the ground.

50 wheat x 8 is 480 an acre
40 canola x 14 is 560 an acre.

So with 260 an acre fert going for broke scenario - will average 935 min fert (just fert) that's 675 for the rest

With 96 an acre fert - 424 average that's 329 for rest.

Now in this scenario your throwing the hail marry hoping for 90 plus wheat across the whole farm and 75 Canola across the whole farm.

Also your counting on your nutrients in the ground but soil tests on all farms will prove this.

I would say a happy medium might win the day.


Just doing some numbers and a slow computer.

Basically you need one **** of a good yield to give you a return on the hail mary scenario.

What are others doing for math.

[quadtrac]

Lots or I’d venture to say most have fert priced for 2022 but what about 2023?
Who says there has to be a reset on prices?

[Sheepwheat]

Math like that is why we do what we do.

Alfalfa. $30 buck an acre, seed it once in five or six years, a bit of glyphosate before seeding. Done. Two bales worth minimum 100 buck an acre. Use used machinery that costs pennies a bale.

Rent out the land and let someone else deal with it.

Every year the numbers get bigger, the stress gets higher. The risk goes up.

What is land rent worth these days most places? What are machinery costs?

It’s getting even more out of hand than it has been, and that is pretty sorry.

Those are the numbers I crunch.

[Herc]

38 bpa guarantee from crop ins. Don’t know my base price yet, guessing $21. Thats all the math I need to do unless it starts raining or snowing…..

Last years fert was $97/acre. We are cutting rates for 2022, but for shits and giggles same rate as 2021 would have been $171/acre at prices we locked in. At todays prices, its $233/acre.

[SASKFARMER]

Ok quad i would of bought my anhydrous cash in Sept and none would deliver then they would and it went up to 88 cents limited amount. So who has it all maybe 1%.

Now on the fert gradual. most have maybe some bought but probably only 47% rest is coming.

With piss poor crops cash is tight for some or a lot so I'm probably right.

now how far am i off on my scenario.

Also I will make more money this year growing 45 wheat and 35 Canola than i did on last year.s crop.

We are over producing for who?

But go ahead that's why farmers never win they always come in last place.

[WiltonRanch]

Have enough hilly land which can kick you in the ass no matter how much you throw at it. 40 bu hrs and 30 to 40 canola in a so so year if lucky. Nutrient levels on these fields are adequate from a poor crop last season I’ll probably run 100# of 46 on and call it good. Now my good land is a different story some needs the groceries. Might throw on 50-20. My biggest thing is I’m trimming other costs too in preparation for less crop volume like need for extra help and custom work, not to mention more cereal acres and less canola. Only thing I worry about is chemical availability and prices. I kept more heifers and plan more forage and grazing crops possibly. If the cow thing made better bank I’d dedicate more acres to annual grazing and forage legumes. My land can be such a cruel mistress with crops at times, and livestock in the mix sure eases that sometimes.

[SASKFARMER]

I agree Herc math is fun.

Just playing around now vs last few years.

Any one who thinks its good at these prices is living in a dream.

But that's the ones who all of a sudden leave the game.

[TOM4CWB]

Ok quad i would of bought my anhydrous cash in Sept and none would deliver then they would and it went up to 88 cents limited amount. So who has it all maybe 1%.

Now on the fert gradual. most have maybe some bought but probably only 47% rest is coming.

With piss poor crops cash is tight for some or a lot so I'm probably right.

now how far am i off on my scenario.

Also I will make more money this year growing 45 wheat and 35 Canola than i did on last year.s crop.

We are over producing for who?

But go ahead that's why farmers never win they always come in last place.

I got NH3 @ $.88/lb... = $1600/Mt if it is 10-20% more... add that to my prices... many farmers have this booked for 2022.

Direct high pressure injection liquid @ 70lb/ac = $55/ac N cost spring applied direct seeded.

Double 2021 cost = 30$/ac... more for 2022... about $60/ac with P K and S more.

On 44bu/ac Canola... that is less than $2/bu extra Fert cost for 2022.
On Wheat $1.30/bu... on peas $1/bu.

Looks like you might consider more efficient application methods... so you could drop fert use by 30%... hint hint!

Cheers

[RD414]

Bought half our usual amount of fert. and that is it. 5.5 inches rain in 15 months is making me think we will leave it in the bin.Does anybody have design plans to turn a 40000 bushel bin into a cabin. Think we will move some to the hill pasture and set up a guest ranch. Might as well use them for something

[SASKFARMER]

How did you buy all your anhydrous needs early do you have like 5 bullets to hold it all.

Direct high pressure wow every one uses that don't they.

Just saying lets look at todays numbers not one here or there.

Hell i got 24 for half of last years crop of Canola big ****ing deal.

Thinking your going to win this game is a joke.

Fertilizer is way out of line your just believing what's been fed to you.

Look at lumber its back to lower than it was before or just back to that level.

Its a game we produce all except Phos. They are making out like bandits.

Oh and tom what happens if in your area it doesn't rain and you get wiped out like ROSETOWN>

How will you be next fall?

[furrowtickler]

I got NH3 @ $.88/lb... = $1600/Mt if it is 10-20% more... add that to my prices... many farmers have this booked for 2022.

Direct high pressure injection liquid @ 70lb/ac = $55/ac N cost spring applied direct seeded.

Double 2021 cost = 30$/ac... more for 2022... about $60/ac with P K and S more.

On 44bu/ac Canola... that is less than $2/bu extra Fert cost for 2022.
On Wheat $1.30/bu... on peas $1/bu.

Looks like you might consider more efficient application methods... so you could drop fert use by 30%... hint hint!

Cheers

Run those numbers on less than 1/2 the yield

[TOM4CWB]

Run those numbers on less than 1/2 the yield

Prescription fertilizer application

There are great options other than application of the high rates you have stated above.

The last 30% of fertiliser you propose to apply are high risk low reward inputs…

I find it unlikely our soils have that many more nutrients …

Times change… risk rewards change… as does our responsibility to our planet and our grandchildren!

Many Blessings! Happy Black Friday! Merry Christmas!!!
Hope you don’t go bankrupt!!!
Cheers

[quadtrac]

Ok quad i would of bought my anhydrous cash in Sept and none would deliver then they would and it went up to 88 cents limited amount. So who has it all maybe 1%.

Now on the fert gradual. most have maybe some bought but probably only 47% rest is coming.

With piss poor crops cash is tight for some or a lot so I'm probably right.

now how far am i off on my scenario.

Also I will make more money this year growing 45 wheat and 35 Canola than i did on last year.s crop.

We are over producing for who?

But go ahead that's why farmers never win they always come in last place.

Very true that anhydrous is a challenge.
We went away from it years ago a good part for that exact reason.
Win some years and lose some. Overall average is what matters really.

[WiltonRanch]

When we were all 1/2 1/3 or 1/4 fallow concerns were a lot different. Not saying it was great neither but you could seed a crop on fallow with little fertilizer and diesel and shovels were cheap. Don’t miss it really but nostalgia and simpler times you know.



All this bs and still nothing more satisfying than checking cows when you’re pondering how screwed up the world is.

[GDR]

When we were all 1/2 1/3 or 1/4 fallow concerns were a lot different. Not saying it was great neither but you could seed a crop on fallow with little fertilizer and diesel and shovels were cheap. Don’t miss it really but nostalgia and simpler times you know.



All this bs and still nothing more satisfying than checking cows when you’re pondering how screwed up the world is.

No snow here yet, has been great weather for fall work, ground still not really froze. That's all good but would be nice to clean the ground up with a bit of snow for feeding cows to cut the waste down.

Next year looking to be a tougher year for sure either way if good crops prices will suck but costs up or poor crop and prices up without much to sell and still high costs.

I soil tested half my fields, quite surprised but there is not much residual left.