Fertilizer prices today will bankrupt most farms with a hiccup next year. PERIOD!

[bucket]

The grain prices this year has maybe shown you that fertilizing till you're broke to ensure over supply and low prices isn't a good economic model for farming - but great for every other industry.

Or at least it should have. By the posts, it hasn't.

It's like you're programmed to spend as much as possible to ensure every other industry stays viable at the cost of viability of your own because that is what makes you a top grower, and everyone has to be and takes tremendous pride in being a top grower, right? If not, you're a laggard, low tech, not innovative, a terrible farmer that just doesn't "get it".

After all, we have starving mouths to feed in 2050 - so overproduce food today. Thanks Rob Saik for that continuing message.

Start catching on to the over production scam constantly messaged. Grow more. And more. And more.

Interesting points but it seems that even with large production the world runs out very quickly. Shortages everywhere, and Canada's production does matter.

How does mustard get to $1.20 a pound other than no production in Canada?
How do peas run up to $17 or higher?

Etc etc

Canadian farmers have been sold a bunch of nonsense and our representation is just shitty, provincially and federally and from farm groups.

Fertilizer canada according to twitter has already had the ear of the conservative caucus. And none of those MPs probably had the nerve to ask why are they gouging farmers?

[SASKFARMER]

So lets look at it another way because some learnt the lesson this year you can count on a few things but Mother Nature isn't one of them.

So Fert costs in the Hail Mary pass are $230 an acre

Typical crop insurance

Lets go 45 BPA Wheat at 70 % is 31.5 x what will they pick in 2022. Now if they use the price today that's nice and worked for years but with last years payout I bet they change the formula to include the whole year and a few back. So lets say 12 and 6 normal they will go 9

31.5 x 9 = 283.50 an acre guarantee for 2022. Now any of you who think they will get a nice premium for the new value are smoking dope. The premium will be 20 some with experience discount but most had a claim so that will **** with that number. Let's go 15 for shits and giggles.

So 268.00 left to pay bills with a drought again and throwing the Hail Mary Fert to the wall.

268 - 230 you have 38 bucks to pay all your rent and most throwing that kind of money will be paying 80 to a 100 an acre so basically you are broke. End of Story.

So oh there is super insurance programs that pay to play.

We'll say you get an average of $80 an acre after they do the calculations is that going to save the above farm?

Also super duper insurance programs will have a premium increase you can bet the farm on that.

Now look at growing a normal lower production system.

We create the shortage they need us and don't think they don't. Ill bet a Bottle of Yellowstone Bourbon that you will make more money growing 40 BPA Canola than 60 any day and 50 wheat vs 90 any day.

We as producers feed the parasites they get rich and most of you suffer. you think you don't but heck I can bet my home in Florida is smaller than the head of a fertilizer company. He needs farmers for his product.

But lets look at the lower

Just starter fertilizer and crop insurance.

Basic $41 or 96 with anhydrous.

268 - 41 = $227 I think you will survive and won't mine the ground ask your agronomist.

Do the whole system and you will still pay your bills for another year.

But hey were farmers we have to over produce to show the companies that were in control and then when they **** us we are like deer in the headlights.

Have a great Sunday.

Booking flights for February and March come join me. HAHAHA

[AlbertaFarmer5]

From what I understand, this fall had two planned preventative maintenance shutdowns for Western Canada NH3 production during the fall NH3 season.

Should we buy Nutrien shares?

I don't know any of the details. But safe to assume any facility utilizing natural gas is going to have pressure vessels and scheduled maintenance is not an option. Absa in Alberta will enforce regular recertification or inspection of any of their pressure vessels, they have to schedule around that.
Doesn't require a conspiracy theory to explain scheduled shutdowns. Likely scheduled years in advance, planned for the time of year when demand is lowest.

[Guest]

between drought, fert prices and seed shortage/price , no worries , the overproduction thing is not gonna happen , not possible

[agstar77]

With all that plans for spring continue. The SF3 s keep buying that million dollar machinery. Strange isn't it.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

between drought, fert prices and seed shortage/price , no worries , the overproduction thing is not gonna happen , not possible

Most of us in the first world have not experienced serious inflation before, so we have no point of reference. And we likely will cut back and produce smaller crops as we balk at these enormous price increases.

But if I put myself in the shoes of a farmer from some of our biggest competitors especially Argentina or fsu, where out of control inflation has just been a fact of life, they may not be so cautious about investing in high priced inputs, having seen this movie before, and assuming that crop braces will follow as their currency continues to drop.

[STR1]

A while ago there was a thread about “how is Trudeau going to get farms to reduce fertilizer use by 30% by 2030” and lots said there is no way it will happen.

I think this thread just answered that one!!!

[WiltonRanch]

Most of us in the first world have not experienced serious inflation before, so we have no point of reference. And we likely will cut back and produce smaller crops as we balk at these enormous price increases.

But if I put myself in the shoes of a farmer from some of our biggest competitors especially Argentina or fsu, where out of control inflation has just been a fact of life, they may not be so cautious about investing in high priced inputs, having seen this movie before, and assuming that crop braces will follow as their currency continues to drop.

I don’t know. Hear enough about Argentinian farmers holding onto grain as a means of combating inflation and getting nailed with export taxes. Even farmers ability to get financing for inputs in these locales is a challenge with predatory rates. Seems the only ones who flourish are the foreign owned farming corps or those with deep pockets and friends in high places. Easy to compare to FSU and SA but I don’t want to go to jail for not bribing the right guys or not being successful in my assassination plot.
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2021/11/23/north-dakota-farmer-accused-plot-ag
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/therussianreader.com/2016/10/03/krasnodar-farmer-kills-himself-after-land-seized/amp/

[WiltonRanch]

A while ago there was a thread about “how is Trudeau going to get farms to reduce fertilizer use by 30% by 2030” and lots said there is no way it will happen.

I think this thread just answered that one!!!

Yes and it will be a great trial run for agribusiness, grain handlers, transporters, and food producers. I always thought ethanol was the backstop in the event of massive crop failures that which those grains would be diverted into the food stream but I don’t think that production nor the opportunity cost tied up in that necessarily transfers to bringing on more needed foods that easily. 200 bu corn ground doesn’t necessarily grow great oats or even milling wheat. Nor does good wheat ground grow much potatoes.

[Guest]

A while ago there was a thread about “how is Trudeau going to get farms to reduce fertilizer use by 30% by 2030” and lots said there is no way it will happen.

I think this thread just answered that one!!!

Maybe not a bad thing
Less wear and tear, less bins, less work , less risk, etc

[farming101]

If not planning to grow anything you're not mining.

[SASKFARMER]

Looks wet around Regina

[helmsdale]

Looks wet around Regina

I think the "ghetto" did well this year...

That said, I'm in that real nice dark red patch. Not that that's anything particularly out of the ordinary.

On the upside if we do get any snow it should go down in the spring cause there is ZERO frost in this soil this fall! I'm going to have to be unable to get down high-grade roads on account of massive amounts of snow before I dump much in the way of fertilizer down. 50lb's of 27-27 might be a waste if it doesnt decide to get serious about ending this drought!

[blackpowder]

Haven't got tests back yet.
But even with early pre buys the anticipated blends are running between $90 & $120.
I learned a long time ago that you always have to seed. And that it's the fixed costs that kill you. Garbage in the ground, garbage in the bin.
Of course with nil soil moisture, I will be as careful as I can. Our sure crop area never had a written guarantee of how much.
And if it doesn't rain, there are deep pockets here paying $100-$120+ rents.
$900k/ quarter and I'll live.
I've been worrying about this for 35 years and I've become oblivious.
Happy seeding!

[Guest]

Looks wet around Regina

looks dry in the swamp