Fertilizer prices today will bankrupt most farms with a hiccup next year. PERIOD!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If not planning to grow anything you're not mining.

[ATTACH]9285[/ATTACH]

Quite a contrast between the total soil moisture map, and the departure from normal map:


Most of the red area is actually close to long term normal, whereas our area out west was a healthy green on the total soil moisture map, but on the 2nd map, we are amongst the driest in the prairies compared to normal. Which isn't neccesarily a bad thing going into spring around here.

While doing some excavations this fall was surprised how much the soil moisture recharged since mid summer when we dug some trenches.

[SASKFARMER]

I love the bullshit.

Let's hear 1100 then 1200 then 1300 at this rate it will be 3300 by seeding if they keep the same game going of 100 a ton week increases.

[Hamloc]

I read an article this morning that Yara is restarting plants in the Netherlands after routine maintenance but still not restarting other plants in the EU due to natural gas price and availability.

My fertilizer costs are up $45 an acre over last year and I am putting on roughly 10% less than last year. I also don’t put on as much as some on here apparently do. Looks like cost per acre will be up somewhere between $75 and $100 per acre when all inputs taken into account. Certainly an elevated level of risk. Soil tests came back with very little residual

[Guest]

bought 46 at $1190 , but only half of normal, my arse hurts

[Guest]

I read an article this morning that Yara is restarting plants in the Netherlands after routine maintenance but still not restarting other plants in the EU due to natural gas price and availability.

My fertilizer costs are up $45 an acre over last year and I am putting on roughly 10% less than last year. I also don’t put on as much as some on here apparently do. Looks like cost per acre will be up somewhere between $75 and $100 per acre when all inputs taken into account. Certainly an elevated level of risk. Soil tests came back with very little residual

no one is putting on what they did before , numbnuts wins , consumers will lose

[4GFarms]

Going to get a couple prices today. Will post what I find out. If N price is $1200 that will be 2.5x the cost of last year. That makes it about $50+/ac more just for nitrogen. Sure seems like we are losing before we start. No snow here yet.

Also, saw on Twitter a thread about wall to wall oats cause they were $10/bu. Not sure these guys have looked into new crop prices. Around $5.50/bu here for fall. Guys chasing markets and high inputs costs maybe should be careful.

[Taiga]

Going to get a couple prices today. Will post what I find out. If N price is $1200 that will be 2.5x the cost of last year. That makes it about $50+/ac more just for nitrogen. Sure seems like we are losing before we start. No snow here yet.

Also, saw on Twitter a thread about wall to wall oats cause they were $10/bu. Not sure these guys have looked into new crop prices. Around $5.50/bu here for fall. Guys chasing markets and high inputs costs maybe should be careful.

$45+ per acre for oat seed too if you have to buy

[jazz]

Soil tests came back with very little residual

Thats weird, same here. After having quite a build up of residual N over the past few yrs, all of a sudden she is all low after an average crop year with little moisture. And I had 2 different companies test this time just to make sure they werent fcking me.

Option to go more lentils but that would break rotation and probably result in a yeild hit and another round of fungicide. I guess a second pass of fungicide is better than a $50 an acre increase in fertility costs.

No easy answers out there, and now we have all committed to growing in a higher input environment without the back end being covered. Risky.

[furrowtickler]

$45+ per acre for oat seed too if you have to buy

Good luck finding decent seed

[shtferbrains]

There is a urea futures market at;

UMAc1

From Middle East as lots of production there due to stranded gas but no market so all export.
Might be usefull to keep track of price direction an maybe local basis?

On the chart appears price more than double since end of Sept.

Some other usefull data there.

[SASKFARMER]

Woke up looked at the bank account and smiled a big smile. Life is Good!



Paid for the shit today.



Can't stop crying, it's like someone died that I love.

[farming101]

Talk is that there is no good moisture as far down as you want to dig.
None in the root zone, a smidge on the surface.
Can't make many plans other than for a below average crop next year

[Guest]

well, when burying piles this fall , it was 10' down, IN THE SWAMP !!!!!!!!!

[Hamloc]

I read an interesting article this morning talking about how much money India will be spending subsidizing fertilizer for farmers in India. They will be spending a projected $20.64 billion dollars to ensure supplies amid global shortages. From what I could find there is roughly 395 million acres of farmland in India. It works out to a $52 per acre subsidy. So in India fertilizer is subsidized and they pay no carbon tax. In Canada our government wants us to use less fertilizer and is increasing the cost of everything(except dyed fuel) with a carbon tax!

[Partners]

Good luck finding decent seed

Local seed grower.
NO Oats or Bly seed left.all cleaned and moved out...his bins are empty already...