Red Lentil Analysis

[OvernOut]

This is the link to my red lentil analysis.

https://klarenbachspecialcropsreport.substack.com/p/red-lentil-analysis

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Wheatking;

Based on your chart and analysis, overall what is your prediction for red lentil prices. Obviously nothing is certain, but are you more inclined to say we are going to see better prices, same prices, or worse prices? Today's price of $.45 isn't terrible but higher is better. With all the rain in Aussie, I wonder what quality looks like there?

[agstar77]

You made the first stupid comment about NWO. Turkey has lots money to oppress it's people. Buying Lentils should not be a problem.

[checking]

Being the Einstein that you are , could you tell everyone who is trying to install the new world order and why?

Going with his one fictional concern, WHO would be it. Why is on John.

Lentils don't like the area. Too wet and they fall flat from disease. Too dry, they won't pod. We have no other conditions, so lentils are not a fit.

[wheatking16]

Wheatking;

Based on your chart and analysis, overall what is your prediction for red lentil prices. Obviously nothing is certain, but are you more inclined to say we are going to see better prices, same prices, or worse prices? Today's price of $.45 isn't terrible but higher is better. With all the rain in Aussie, I wonder what quality looks like there?

That is a good question.

As I wrote in my newsletter, I am bullish above 52 and bearish beneath that level.

Looking at the chart below, I outlined a thesis with two potential scenarios marked by the pink and blue arrows.

Often in strong bull markets, the 0.236 fib retracement will provide support for a continuation higher.

Looking closely at the chart below, you can see a slight bounce in the vicinity of the 0.236 fib level and what looks like a completed head and shoulders pattern.

Usually, I will tighten up the chart to a lower timeline to provide more detail; however, it has been a long day, and I don't have it in me tonight. I will likely do so when I publish an update to the Red Lentil Analysis later this week.

If I held my long red position off the high, I would likely have exited upon the break of the new low and completion of the head and shoulders pattern.

Assuming that I am still long, I will assess how the price reacts at each fib level.

My two potential scenarios are based on observations of 1000's of charts and represent anticipated price action.

The pink scenario has the price dropping to the 0.382 fib level, then a bounce to the 0.236 fib before falling to the 0.500 fib level at 37.

The blue scenario had the price falling to the 0.618 fib level and the previous supply at 30-31.

This chart could be forming a 4th Elliot Wave, and the 0.500 or 0.618 fib level could be the low before a new ATH.

IF this happens, we still do not know WHEN. It could be this winter or ten years from now. 4th Waves usually take the longest to form.

Keep in mind that I will reassess at each fib level, and my thesis is subject to change with new information.

Once I get comfortable with my processes, this analysis can be expected in the free Klarenbach Special Crops Report.

I hope that you subscribe and follow along.

https://klarenbachspecialcropsreport.substack.com

[wheatking16]

Not that I think the lentils are necessarily in a speculative bubble, but they did run hot and I find this chart useful when I see that type of parabolic action. In a typical secario we would see a 'return to normal', however we could see prices rally past the recent high due to variant fear and the anticipation of variant induced inflation.

I like this. You got me thinking about this being a Hyperwave.

If that is the case, then 20 will be realized again in the future.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I must admit, I have trouble keeping track of who farms what and where.
Gohnjalt, do you grow red lentils? Or are you the guy that used to grow the big variety of lentils?