Canola

[wheatking16]

Today's Canola Report is available.

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/canola-futures

[farming101]

Thanks for the report.
I've got a resistance mark at about 1033, March

[helmsdale]

Someone that follows the market better than I...

With traditional multiples what would canola be valued at relative to Malaysian palm, or soy right now?

Compared to the other two what are the largest spreads? Is canola close to the peak (spread wise) or is it setting new highs relative to its competition?

Surely some substitutions can be made, but at a certain point marketing angles associated with each representative oil source start to make substitutions close to impossible.

[wheatking16]

Someone that follows the market better than I...

With traditional multiples what would canola be valued at relative to Malaysian palm, or soy right now?

Compared to the other two what are the largest spreads? Is canola close to the peak (spread wise) or is it setting new highs relative to its competition?

Surely some substitutions can be made, but at a certain point marketing angles associated with each representative oil source start to make substitutions close to impossible.

Buddy was discussing this last night on the way home from hockey.


I haven't looked into it, however, he mentioned that Canola is expensive in relative terms to Palm, soy, etc.

Again, I don't know.

The old guys beat the young whipper snippers so I have been enjoying the spoils of victory.

[farming101]

Comparison exercises can often be massaged to make the output fit the agenda.
Time frame is all important.
So, with all the variables to consider the results need to be used with caution.
One of the largest factors not often seen in a basic comparison chart looking at resources crossing borders is the currency. So, DYODD.
Having said that, over the time frame of approximately the last 27 months on a percentage basis, canola compared to Malaysian palm oil and US bean oil started to gain.
Over the last 7 months canola has gained about 43% in CAD, palm oil about 20% in MYR and bean oil in USD is flat
This chart is the daily nearby. Canola still needs to be taken apart to be made into oil and meal.

[4GFarms]

Who is caught short on the last trading day for November? Quite a sell off today

[ColevilleH2S]

Canola fell off a cliff

[furrowtickler]

Yup , early contracts are full where they could get it , so now it will be wait and see probably till the end of Jan before they need to come back and buy ?

[SASKFARMER]

End of the month. Games will be played.

[farming101]

Commercial stocks have been 1.5 MMT+ since the middle of Oct.
Also Australia big canola shipping months are Nov - Apr.
A couple of fundamentals

[Guest]

Commercial stocks have been 1.5 MMT+ since the middle of Oct.
Also Australia big canola shipping months are Nov - Apr.
A couple of fundamentals

should we be worried , in your opinion?

[farming101]

There will be shortages of canola and canola products.
How many importers are willing to pay the new very high price and how many importers can substitute?
Bean oil will be the oil of choice for much of the world to replace canola oil.
Aussie canola coming to market will help satisfy that smaller demand for several months to come.
Thankfully our largest canola products customer is directly south which will support prices.
I would be wary of thinking this is all just speculators fooling with the market.
It could be indicating the need to rejig veg oil sources has begun.
BC floods have not helped either

[wheatking16]

No need to worry yet.......

The January contract is still above the high at 949 as well as the rising 50 DMA.




The March contract is also above the 50 DMA and 924 high.

[TOM4CWB]

No need to worry yet.......

The January contract is still above the high at 949 as well as the rising 50 DMA.

[ATTACH]9295[/ATTACH]


The March contract is also above the 50 DMA and 924 high.

[ATTACH]9296[/ATTACH]

Black Swan events just increase volatility...

The commodity markets today clearly should have settled the Variant Pandemic relevance to marketing our crops.

Jan22Canola had a high yesterday of $1056.40 and a low today of $975.50 caused by this 'Black Swan' event called [C] the pandemic.... IMHO that is not even close to being over.

This issue [C] is a simple indicator that it obviously does cause and will cause more major disruptions to our food security and food supply chains. Volatility this great... should not go un noticed... as the flooding in BC disrupting food security supplies and energy.

Emotion and Fear breed wild markets... both up and down... not logical...fundamentals change market directions... !!! the threat of 145mmt of soy new crop Brazil... should be a cold bath reminder... that trends do change... when fundamentals like the Aussie Canola crop supply threatening to top this market...

It aint over till its over... but cast iron guts may be required!!!! This horse [should have said Bull] looks like a good bucker... but when the ride is done... the ground is still hard!

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Just saw Bloomberg on Russia...

8% inflation.. 7.5% interest rates likely to go up 1% in Dec.

They Blame the west for the rise in inflation....

Drop in Rubble has been good for exports... business wants to devalue Rubble even more... good for oil and gas, as well as grain exports...said Russia would not attack Ukraine so no need to worry about more Russian sanctions...

US Fed Powell has dropped 'transitory inflation' and is moving up interest rate increases next year... and dropping tapering sooner... caused market disruptions yesterday...[Powell before congress]

Cheers