Climate Tab

[AlbertaFarmer5]

When we have record breaking cold temperatures like in February 2021, it is just weather. When we have record breaking rain in B.C. It is climate change. I did hear an amusing blurb on the news this morning, I believe it was in Denmark, some customers and employees had to spend the night in an IKEA store due to heavy snowfall. More weather.

The entire concept of record breaking weather is such a grossly misleading misnomer. We have give or take 100 years of incomplete and largely inconsistent weather records in much of western Canada. That represents less than 1% out of the approximately 10,000+ year interglacial that we are currently in. And out of the ~ 200 million years that North America has held its current shape and position(roughly), our records represent 0.00005% of the weather.
Our understanding of the paleoclimate data does not have the granularity to indicate record breaking single events in most cases.

This would be like looking at a chart of 1 minute of the Dow yesterday and extrapolating that snippet to assume that it represents the entire range of possible valuations since the beginning of the index, and extending indefinitely into the future.


Further complicating matters is the trend we are in. We started recording weather events at the end of the little ice age, the coldest period for ~8000 years, of almost the entire interglacial period. Making the earlier records almost completely irrelevant to today as we bounce back to something closer to long term average temperatures.

No better evidence of our almost complete ignorance of the range of possible weather phenomenon than the events which just transpired in BC. I am quite certain that the railroad and highway engineers used all the available weather data to establish a worst case scenario for rainfall and flooding to build their infrastructure to withstand that. The problem being that they only have a window on a minute spec of time to base those calculations. And they underestimated natures potential. So now, while the armchair pundits like Chuck will blame it all on climate change, the actual engineers will add this scenario to our collective knowledge and to the range of known possible weather, and design infrastructure accordingly.


And regardless of our best intentions, the mountains are slowly and inexorably eroding away, and will inevitably take all of our infrastructure with them, regardless of how much engineering we do, and what steps we take to combat climate change.

[seldomseen]

Of course there is climate change!
When I was a kid this low spot was full of huge popular trees. Some that were at least 24-30 inch diameter. My guess it would take 50-60 years to grow that big. I walked through that spot many times as a youngster marveling at the size of the trees and never any water in that spot other than a few days in the spring. The climate changed right around 2004 when it turned colder and wetter and stayed that way for the next 18 years. Water stayed there all summer and you could not walk through there with out hip waders. All the big trees died and nothing new grew up other than slew grass,
Kind of think the climate is starting to change again and the whole process will start over with young saplings coming up but will take many years without endless flooding to get as big as they were in 2004.

[WiltonRanch]

The entire concept of record breaking weather is such a grossly misleading misnomer. We have give or take 100 years of incomplete and largely inconsistent weather records in much of western Canada. That represents less than 1% out of the approximately 10,000+ year interglacial that we are currently in. And out of the ~ 200 million years that North America has held its current shape and position(roughly), our records represent 0.00005% of the weather.
Our understanding of the paleoclimate data does not have the granularity to indicate record breaking single events in most cases.

This would be like looking at a chart of 1 minute of the Dow yesterday and extrapolating that snippet to assume that it represents the entire range of possible valuations since the beginning of the index, and extending indefinitely into the future.


Further complicating matters is the trend we are in. We started recording weather events at the end of the little ice age, the coldest period for ~8000 years, of almost the entire interglacial period. Making the earlier records almost completely irrelevant to today as we bounce back to something closer to long term average temperatures.

No better evidence of our almost complete ignorance of the range of possible weather phenomenon than the events which just transpired in BC. I am quite certain that the railroad and highway engineers used all the available weather data to establish a worst case scenario for rainfall and flooding to build their infrastructure to withstand that. The problem being that they only have a window on a minute spec of time to base those calculations. And they underestimated natures potential. So now, while the armchair pundits like Chuck will blame it all on climate change, the actual engineers will add this scenario to our collective knowledge and to the range of known possible weather, and design infrastructure accordingly.


And regardless of our best intentions, the mountains are slowly and inexorably eroding away, and will inevitably take all of our infrastructure with them, regardless of how much engineering we do, and what steps we take to combat climate change.

I’m ignorant to the exact location of present infrastructure through the mountains vs the original. I would imagine some is in the same places where at the time it was built engineers knowledge was that much more limited. People’s knowledge changes more than anything, and what we infer today could turn out to be wrong tomorrow. It is often said we know more about space than what is at the bottom of our oceans or the biological activity of our soils. To sit and jump up and down about climate change like chicken little every time there is a weather related disaster is the zeitgeist as was it being the gods were mad and was deemed necessary a sacrifice was made in antiquity. Science and knowledge changes but humans don’t.

[TOM4CWB]

“…regardless of our best intentions, the mountains are slowly and inexorably eroding away, and will inevitably take all of our infrastructure with them, regardless of how much engineering we do, and what steps we take to combat climate change.”

‘Climate Change’ is a means to an end that is a notion that has no standards, unending possibilities of fear, chaos, guilt trips, and endless excuses to spend future generations into poverty.

The other alternative is to excuse our government’s economic ignorance with a financial economics that “Reset” the global debt of those who now compose the World Economic Forum… at the cost of the rest of humanity that has no voice nor opportunity to object to this perverse view of civilization.

Everyone farming globally could produce 30% less food.

30% less crop inputs (Canada’s Federal 2030 commitment) mandated by COP 26 World Economic Forum Club of Rome elite…instituted globally has an end that canceled the food supply for 30% of humanity.

This insane 30% across the board de-commissioning of Canadian farms, a commitment by the Federal Government of Canada with out consultation with Canadians or a parliamentary majority vote to enforce this mandate … is absurd and dangerous.

Cheers

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Seldomseen, I see the exact same thing happening here too. Except from what I understand the change here occurred in the late 50s, then really got wet again starting 1990. All the big lowland areas here were hayed consistently prior to that then were impassable for decades. Supposedly the roads going through and blocking drainage was part of the cause. But it happened even where there are no roads.
But all of the big swamps around here have stumps and old dead trees that are 10 times bigger than anything that has attempted to grow back in recent decades. Poplar and spruce before, nothing but stunted tamarack or swamp spruce now.
I'm doing some digging in peat moss right now, and the evidence of drastic changes including dry periods and massive floods are interspersed throughout the layers as you go down through the peat Moss. You can see how the vegetation has changed throughout the millenia. Can see how it went from lake bottom to trees back to swamp back to lake back to trees over and over again.

[Guest]

it is akin to the notion that the earth was flat , science was settled at the time . of course we progressed but these idiot climate change scammers can't move ahead. of course the climate is changing and only they are stupid enough to think the govt can influence while the scandalous govt laughs all the way to the bank with this new windfall tax that keeps giving , over and over and over and over and over , etc. on the same product , plus GST

[TOM4CWB]

“…regardless of our best intentions, the mountains are slowly and inexorably eroding away, and will inevitably take all of our infrastructure with them, regardless of how much engineering we do, and what steps we take to combat climate change.”

‘Climate Change’ is a means to an end that is a notion that has no standards, unending possibilities of fear, chaos, guilt trips, and endless excuses to spend future generations into poverty.

The other alternative is to excuse our government’s economic ignorance with a financial economics that “Reset” the global debt of those who now compose the World Economic Forum… at the cost of the rest of humanity that has no voice nor opportunity to object to this perverse view of civilization.

Everyone farming globally could produce 30% less food.

30% less crop inputs (Canada’s Federal 2030 commitment) mandated by COP 26 World Economic Forum Club of Rome elite…instituted globally has an end that canceled the food supply for 30% of humanity.

This insane 30% across the board de-commissioning of Canadian farms, a commitment by the Federal Government of Canada with out consultation with Canadians or a parliamentary majority vote to enforce this mandate … is absurd and dangerous.

Cheers

Here is the MNP annalisis

“ Implications of a Total Emissions Reduction Target on Fertilizer
Analysis of Potential Direct Financial Impacts on Canadian Farmers’ Fertilizer Use - Macro Analysis
Prepared for Fertilizer Canada
SUITE 1200, 242 HARGRAVE STREET, WINNIPEG, MB, R3C 0T8 T: 204.775.4531 F: 204.783.8329 MNP.ca

Executive Summary
Under Canada’s Strengthened Climate Plan, the government of Canada is envisioning a 30% reduction in absolute emissions by the year 2030. That would include chemical fertilizer reductions used in crop production by Canadian farmers to achieve their part of those targets. In order to achieve that, one existing measure of the magnitude of actual reduction in agricultural fertilizer use would be the model proposed under the EU Green Deal which cites an actual reduction of 20% in fertilizer use compared to 2020 levels. MNP LLP was engaged by Fertilizer Canada to analyze the direct macro financial impact of lost production and has modeled a 20% rate reduction starting in 2023 and the effect on farmer output until 2030.
To meet these reductions, there may be adjustments forced on farmers’ practices that will have varying degrees of net impact on farmers. This report is however based on the assumptions of continued farming practices (including crop rotation) as they are today to reflect the possibility of farmers accepting the lower production that lost nutrients would have on the production levels of their crops. The assumptions of this report summarize that effect by simply reducing the crop output and thereby presuming there is a direct correlation between available nutrients and loss in fertilizer use and impact on crop production. The analysis is focused on the effects for corn, canola, and spring wheat in Canada (three major crops that make up a major share of Canadian small grain/oilseed production), and is based on a similar number of acres for the three crops using the 5-year average, a straight-line reduction of fertilizer use starting in the year 2023 along with a straight-line reduction in yield based on industry yield response estimates for each crop, no inflation effects, and no effects of reduced crop supplies on crop prices until 2030.
A straight-line reduction in fertilizer usage results in increased differences of actual yields versus potential yields if the status quo had been continued. By 2030, yield gaps for the three crops are estimated at 23.6 bushels per acre per year for canola, 67.9 bushels per acre per year for corn, and 36.1 per acre per year bushels per acre for spring wheat. Given constant prices, the total value of lost production grows to 10.4 billion per year by 2030 and across the years 2023 to 2030 is shown for each crop as follows:
Implications of a Total Emissions Reduction Target on Fertilizer – Analysis of Potential Direct Financial Impacts on Canadian Farmers’ Fertilizer Use 4

The estimated lost production has significant effects on Canada’s ability to fill domestic processing capacity (e.g., canola crushing facilities) as well as export capacity. Assuming that domestic capacity will be filled first, it is estimated that by 2030 most Canadian exports of canola will not exist (only 750,000 metric tonnes of canola will be theoretically available for export compared to more than 10 million metric tonnes today). The reduction in annual spring wheat exports is estimated to be 4.2 million metric tonnes by 2030. The analysis for the three crops, as well as any potential impacts for other crops, will significantly impact Canada’s ability to reach its targets for domestic sales and exports of agri-food products and thereby have a major detriment to the Canadian agri-food economy. Finally, reducing Canada’s contribution to the global food supply by more than 14 million metric tonnes collectively of wheat and canola per year by 2030 would have a major impact on the global supply of food in the future. There are lots of ways farmers can react to potential economic impacts of reduced fertilizer use, including acceptance of lower productivity. This would be devastating, such that any plan to reduce carbon emissions would need to be done in a way that the future productivity of major crops is maintained.

Doesn’t that just warm your imagination to the common sense of the Federal Government whom committed our global civilization to this new future for humanity!!!
X (Times) Canada’s food production by the rest of the planet…

This unstable food security chaos added to Pandemic thinking… = insane volatility.

Hang on tight!!!!

Cheers

[seldomseen]

Seldomseen, I see the exact same thing happening here too. Except from what I understand the change here occurred in the late 50s, then really got wet again starting 1990. All the big lowland areas here were hayed consistently prior to that then were impassable for decades. Supposedly the roads going through and blocking drainage was part of the cause. But it happened even where there are no roads.
But all of the big swamps around here have stumps and old dead trees that are 10 times bigger than anything that has attempted to grow back in recent decades. Poplar and spruce before, nothing but stunted tamarack or swamp spruce now.
I'm doing some digging in peat moss right now, and the evidence of drastic changes including dry periods and massive floods are interspersed throughout the layers as you go down through the peat Moss. You can see how the vegetation has changed throughout the millenia. Can see how it went from lake bottom to trees back to swamp back to lake back to trees over and over again.

I am also hearing stories like that east of Carrot River where under the willows and moss they can find the remains of spruce and popular!

[seldomseen]

Just a question for Chuck

18 or 20 years that changed all vegetation is that weather or climate?

[TOM4CWB]

Just a question for Chuck

18 or 20 years that changed all vegetation is that weather or climate?

I seem to recall they found unpetrified trees up north on Baffin Island... a few years ago...

"A piece of ancient wood found recently in the Canadian Arctic.
PHOTOGRAPH COURTESY JOEL BARKER
Mummified Forest Found on Treeless Arctic Island
Pines, spruces buried in landslide millions of years ago, when area was warmer.
BYMASON INMANFOR NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC NEWS
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 19, 2010
• 4 MIN READ

An ancient mummified forest, complete with well-preserved logs, leaves, and seedpods, has been discovered deep in the Canadian Arctic, scientists say.

The dry, frigid site is now surrounded by glaciers and is completely treeless, except for a few bonsai-size dwarf trees. (See Arctic aerial pictures.)

The forest was discovered recently by a research team who'd heard a surprising story from rangers in Quttinirpaaq National Park. The park is located on Ellesmere Island (see map), one of the world's northernmost landmasses.

The rangers had come across wood scattered on the ground from much larger trees than the few dwarfs currently in the area, including logs that were several feet long.

"Walking through the area, they're everywhere," said Joel Barker, an environmental scientist at Ohio State University who's leading a study of the mummified forest. "You'd have trouble not tripping over them."

Right... actual wood millions of years old....Not petrified ... someone has a time piece that is badly adjusted... Just like 'Climate Change' 1 + 1 isn't 1M.... except if you count like Chairman Powell of the Fed... or are a C02 Climate guru ... then the imagination is the only hinderance to your 'proven facts'.

Cheers