If Corn is your thing

[wheatking16]

My Corn Futures report is published.

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/corn-futures

[TOM4CWB]

My Corn Futures report is published.

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/corn-futures

[ATTACH]9304[/ATTACH]

There is a large fundamental sentiment towards Corn and wheat having inflationary supply chain input shortages that farmers and consumers alike realize there is at least a 75% risk of our markets rising into the spring of 2022.

Soybeans [or pulses] with nitrogen fixing capabilities are an easy input reducer... so corn and wheat will need to buy acres away from soybeans globally.

Peas acres in western Canada for the spring of 2022 will very likely seed restricted if farmers are not really careful... 2021 crop peas have huge mechanical damage germ problems because of the dry harvest.

Western Canada is really dry [stating the obvious] and so is a large part of the mid west US and northern plains... California is really vulnerable to drought production problems in 2022... one of the biggest ag production areas in North America. Even Mexico is buying corn at a feverish pace. As will western Canada rely on corn as the feed back up for our livestock in 2022.

So it is logical to see corn as the sleeper that will break out up in the first half of 2022... probably led by wheat in a 'La Nina' drought led southern US weather market.

If the southern US is warmer than normal... that should reduce the pressure on energy supplies in the US... but the EU and Canada will be colder in the weather forecasts... good we do not need to dry grain in western Canada!

Volatile markets in any event... India and China at over 3B people... are massive food markets... food security is top in the minds of the vast majority of our civilization... the pandemic compounded by the Climate Change inertia... has our civilization on the verge of irrational global chaos. [ie; every farmer reduce fert by 30% to save civilization ... the inmates have taken over...]

Cheers! A Brave new world... fix your equipment carefully early... line up seed and fert... going to be a very interesting 2022!!! Merry Christmas!!!

Sask Farmer... being an old grumpy farmer... is cold and an irritation... we will get more done with a little honey than sour wine and long faces!!! Cheer up! You might even have some shiny new green iron to enjoy in 2022!!! If anyone should be happy... it could be you!!!

[TOM4CWB]

"TOM4CWB;520050]There is a large fundamental sentiment towards Corn and wheat having inflationary supply chain input shortages that farmers and consumers alike realize there is at least a 75% risk of our markets rising into the spring of 2022.

Soybeans [or pulses] with nitrogen fixing capabilities are an easy input reducer... so corn and wheat will need to buy acres away from soybeans globally.

Peas acres in western Canada for the spring of 2022 will very likely seed restricted if farmers are not really careful... 2021 crop peas have huge mechanical damage germ problems because of the dry harvest.

Western Canada is really dry [stating the obvious] and so is a large part of the mid west US and northern plains... California is really vulnerable to drought production problems in 2022... one of the biggest ag production areas in North America. Even Mexico is buying corn at a feverish pace. As will western Canada rely on corn as the feed back up for our livestock in 2022.

So it is logical to see corn as the sleeper that will break out up in the first half of 2022... probably led by wheat in a 'La Nina' drought led southern US weather market. ..."

What is the consensus..

What say you... grains up today.. Jan 22 Canola up $28.30 @ $1022.60 on 8079 volume; Corn May $5.79 up .06.25; Oats Mar up .30.6@ $7.34 Spring Wheat $10.42 Mar up 22.5 cents

Sooooo

Is today a 'Dead Cat Bounce'...

Or the start of consolidation for a new bottom... the beginning of another leg up'!... Christmas Time... low volume... too close to call!!!

Canola moving 50$/t trading limit per day... can sure screw up historic charts and technicals... needs to be updates adjustments on gaps in daily charts... I am tempted to go for the Corn red line at $6.57!!!

Cheers

[wheatking16]

"TOM4CWB;520050]There is a large fundamental sentiment towards Corn and wheat having inflationary supply chain input shortages that farmers and consumers alike realize there is at least a 75% risk of our markets rising into the spring of 2022.

Soybeans [or pulses] with nitrogen fixing capabilities are an easy input reducer... so corn and wheat will need to buy acres away from soybeans globally.

Peas acres in western Canada for the spring of 2022 will very likely seed restricted if farmers are not really careful... 2021 crop peas have huge mechanical damage germ problems because of the dry harvest.

Western Canada is really dry [stating the obvious] and so is a large part of the mid west US and northern plains... California is really vulnerable to drought production problems in 2022... one of the biggest ag production areas in North America. Even Mexico is buying corn at a feverish pace. As will western Canada rely on corn as the feed back up for our livestock in 2022.

So it is logical to see corn as the sleeper that will break out up in the first half of 2022... probably led by wheat in a 'La Nina' drought led southern US weather market. ..."

What is the consensus..

What say you... grains up today.. Jan 22 Canola up $28.30 @ $1022.60 on 8079 volume; Corn May $5.79 up .06.25; Oats Mar up .30.6@ $7.34 Spring Wheat $10.42 Mar up 22.5 cents

Sooooo

Is today a 'Dead Cat Bounce'...

Or the start of consolidation for a new bottom... the beginning of another leg up'!... Christmas Time... low volume... too close to call!!!

Canola moving 50$/t trading limit per day... can sure screw up historic charts and technicals... needs to be updates adjustments on gaps in daily charts... I am tempted to go for the Corn red line at $6.57!!!

Cheers

Good question.

Two things that I am certain of:

1 Time will tell
2. If the price gets to where I think it will, it won't get there how I think it will.

[riders2010]

My 2 cents worth of Russia attempts invasion of Ukraine
We will in short order see who aligns with who. And
Potentially will see sharp push back from the west
To the point where shipments of food etc will be very
Political. And with a limited supply and let’s face it
Unless something changes bigger drought than last year
These prices will be looked at as cheap.

In fact does anyone else feel like these higher
Prices seem too unreal? As in the hoarding has
Begun?

[TOM4CWB]

My 2 cents worth of Russia attempts invasion of Ukraine
We will in short order see who aligns with who. And
Potentially will see sharp push back from the west
To the point where shipments of food etc will be very
Political. And with a limited supply and let’s face it
Unless something changes bigger drought than last year
These prices will be looked at as cheap.

In fact does anyone else feel like these higher
Prices seem too unreal? As in the hoarding has
Begun?

WSJ:

"Putin Troop Buildup Near Ukraine Raises Concerns of Potential 2022 Invasion, U.S. Officials Say
Expected Russian force of 175,000 would dwarf troop levels from earlier massing in the spring

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Riga, Latvia, on Wednesday.
By Warren P. Strobel
Updated Dec. 3, 2021 11:13 pm ET

WASHINGTON—Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a force expected to total 175,000 troops near Russia’s border with Ukraine, giving him the capability for a potential invasion of his neighbor by early 2022, Biden administration officials said Friday.

The officials, citing new intelligence reports that include images from spy satellites, said the Russian military buildup differs markedly from an earlier massing of troops in the spring. When completed, they said, it will be twice the size of that previous buildup. In addition, Russia has embarked on a rapid mobilization of reservists."...

Seems to be a real run on senile global leadership... "Old habits die hard" pun intended...

Cheers

P.S.
WSJ
"Turkey’s Economic Turmoil Sends Desperation and Inflation Soaring
President Erdogan pushes lower interest rates as currency plunges; ‘everyone here is outraged’
Demonstrators in Istanbul last month.
By Jared Malsin
Dec. 3, 2021 10:50 am ET
ISTANBUL—The two-decade economic boom that lifted millions of Turks into the middle class is beginning to unravel, threatened by a currency crisis that has people lining up for subsidized bread, cutting back on meat and fleeing for a better life in Europe.

The Turkish lira has lost as much as 45% of its value this year, making ordinary Turks poorer. The pandemic-era consumer-price increases that have plagued economies across the world are supersize in Turkey, where inflation stands at more than 21%. People here are rushing to trade their shrinking wages for dollars and gold, are eating out less and are having more trouble finding imported goods, including medicine.

T