fertilizer to conservative's questions

[bucket]

I find it interesting that the conservatives ask questions of government about the fertilizer reduction and its effects on food production.

Now keep in mind Ferilizr Canada had meetings with O'toole and Barlow according their twitter.

I think the questions are more about the fertilizer companies bottom line.


No questions about the gouging of Canadian made fertilizer or the drought?

The fertilizer companies have them on a tight rope.

Make it look like a farmer problem and a consumer problem but actually its a gouging and collusion problem.

[foragefarmer]

World wide Supply/Demand


Europe is predicting 25% fertilizer shortage for up coming growing season. Shortages have been in the making for months now.

What do you think o Toole can do? Your grasping at straws.

You're honestly thinking Canadian Fertilizer companies are going to have a domestic price for Canadian farmers with a world wide shortage and profits that can be made?

Are you forgetting the two tier domestic wheat pricing system of years gone by and where that ended up.

As Neil Young would sing "Keep on Rocking in the Free World"

[jamesb]

Scary thing is, I believe there is gonna be a good chance that most plants will not have much product available come spring. Like now product is going out as quick as it comes in.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

World wide Supply/Demand


Europe is predicting 25% fertilizer shortage for up coming growing season. Shortages have been in the making for months now.

What do you think o Toole can do? Your grasping at straws.

You're honestly thinking Canadian Fertilizer companies are going to have a domestic price for Canadian farmers with a world wide shortage and profits that can be made?

Are you forgetting the two tier domestic wheat pricing system of years gone by and where that ended up.

As Neil Young would sing "Keep on Rocking in the Free World"

Well said.
I was going to suggest that next time South America has a crop failure and we have good crops, that we should all agree to sell our grain to domestic users for much less than world price.
In fact, I had good crops this year I guess I should be selling them for last year's price by that logic.

[redleaf]

I don’t always agree with bucket, however I think you are putting words in his mouth. His comment was regarding fertilizer having the ear of politicians leaving actual farmers out of the loop. Much the same way our sitting government decided we will “voluntarily” reduce our use of fertilizer. Not one single consultation with any actual farmers unless maybe NFu or organic organizations were consulted.

[BTO780]

We all talk of having a crystal ball ... if there’s a time to have one it’s now.

[bucket]

I don’t always agree with bucket, however I think you are putting words in his mouth. His comment was regarding fertilizer having the ear of politicians leaving actual farmers out of the loop. Much the same way our sitting government decided we will “voluntarily” reduce our use of fertilizer. Not one single consultation with any actual farmers unless maybe NFu or organic organizations were consulted.

Thank you. When listening to the conservatives ask the questions about the fertilizer reduction by the liberal government they made it sound like it was farmers that were going to be hurt by the reduction which in turn causes food security issues.

Fertilizer companies have already reduced fertilizer usage by their pricing plus the fact that many farmers are finding the fertilizer is still there from 2021.

There was no fertilizer shortage last year. There are the same number of acres in 2022. Chances are more pulse crops, there is no shortage of natural gas to make fertilizer in Canada.

And finally to some of the other comments, Russia and China have reduced exports to ensure production in their countries. Seems when you are talking food security , it might be wise here as well.

[bobofthenorth]

You're honestly thinking Canadian Fertilizer companies are going to have a domestic price for Canadian farmers with a world wide shortage and profits that can be made?

Actually there's a fairly strong argument to be made that the Canadian market is currently trading at a discount to the US and the world. The whiners will whine but the smart money is locking up supply for spring. We don't have to like it but we buy the crop. You have to pay to play and there's no guarantees even when you do pay but for sure if you don't pay you won't get the bushels.

[Old Cowzilla]

For what it's worth local fert rep said most customers are cutting back do to soil test results . And seed rep said soybean seed is in big demand. IF ground stays black all winter those stories might hold true.

[TOM4CWB]

For what it's worth local fert rep said most customers are cutting back do to soil test results . And seed rep said soybean seed is in big demand. IF ground stays black all winter those stories might hold true.

Wondering if some missed the commitment Liberals made to reduce Fertilizer use by 30%... by 2030... which is not a 2022 shortage supply price question / issue. With out sustainable soil nutrients- and replacement of them [nutrients] as we crop yearly... the movement to get rid of livestock production agriculture to reduce greenhouse gasses... is an outright failure to recognize food security...

Clearly 3rd world 'poor' people will suffer the greatest discrimination in food supply... killing them first.

War, famine, terrorism and disease from this intentional disruption in food security -30% nutrients by 2030 for farmers... COP 26 and the Climate Change elite are turning into cold blooded killers... if this goes ahead.

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Wondering if some missed the commitment Liberals made to reduce Fertilizer use by 30%... by 2030... which is not a 2022 shortage supply price question / issue. With out sustainable soil nutrients- and replacement of them [nutrients] as we crop yearly... the movement to get rid of livestock production agriculture to reduce greenhouse gasses... is an outright failure to recognize food security...

Clearly 3rd world 'poor' people will suffer the greatest discrimination in food supply... killing them first.

War, famine, terrorism and disease from this intentional disruption in food security -30% nutrients by 2030 for farmers... COP 26 and the Climate Change elite are turning into cold blooded killers... if this goes ahead.

Cheers

Please read this… it isn’t talking about 2022, short term production problems.


“ Implications of a Total Emissions Reduction Target on Fertilizer
Analysis of Potential Direct Financial Impacts on Canadian Farmers’ Fertilizer Use - Macro Analysis
Prepared for Fertilizer Canada
SUITE 1200, 242 HARGRAVE STREET, WINNIPEG, MB, R3C 0T8 T: 204.775.4531 F: 204.783.8329 MNP.ca

Executive Summary
Under Canada’s Strengthened Climate Plan, the government of Canada is envisioning a 30% reduction in absolute emissions by the year 2030. That would include chemical fertilizer reductions used in crop production by Canadian farmers to achieve their part of those targets. In order to achieve that, one existing measure of the magnitude of actual reduction in agricultural fertilizer use would be the model proposed under the EU Green Deal which cites an actual reduction of 20% in fertilizer use compared to 2020 levels. MNP LLP was engaged by Fertilizer Canada to analyze the direct macro financial impact of lost production and has modeled a 20% rate reduction starting in 2023 and the effect on farmer output until 2030.
To meet these reductions, there may be adjustments forced on farmers’ practices that will have varying degrees of net impact on farmers. This report is however based on the assumptions of continued farming practices (including crop rotation) as they are today to reflect the possibility of farmers accepting the lower production that lost nutrients would have on the production levels of their crops. The assumptions of this report summarize that effect by simply reducing the crop output and thereby presuming there is a direct correlation between available nutrients and loss in fertilizer use and impact on crop production. The analysis is focused on the effects for corn, canola, and spring wheat in Canada (three major crops that make up a major share of Canadian small grain/oilseed production), and is based on a similar number of acres for the three crops using the 5-year average, a straight-line reduction of fertilizer use starting in the year 2023 along with a straight-line reduction in yield based on industry yield response estimates for each crop, no inflation effects, and no effects of reduced crop supplies on crop prices until 2030.
A straight-line reduction in fertilizer usage results in increased differences of actual yields versus potential yields if the status quo had been continued. By 2030, yield gaps for the three crops are estimated at 23.6 bushels per acre per year for canola, 67.9 bushels per acre per year for corn, and 36.1 per acre per year bushels per acre for spring wheat. Given constant prices, the total value of lost production grows to 10.4 billion per year by 2030 and across the years 2023 to 2030 is shown for each crop as follows:
Implications of a Total Emissions Reduction Target on Fertilizer – Analysis of Potential Direct Financial Impacts on Canadian Farmers’ Fertilizer Use 4

The estimated lost production has significant effects on Canada’s ability to fill domestic processing capacity (e.g., canola crushing facilities) as well as export capacity. Assuming that domestic capacity will be filled first, it is estimated that by 2030 most Canadian exports of canola will not exist (only 750,000 metric tonnes of canola will be theoretically available for export compared to more than 10 million metric tonnes today). The reduction in annual spring wheat exports is estimated to be 4.2 million metric tonnes by 2030. The analysis for the three crops, as well as any potential impacts for other crops, will significantly impact Canada’s ability to reach its targets for domestic sales and exports of agri-food products and thereby have a major detriment to the Canadian agri-food economy. Finally, reducing Canada’s contribution to the global food supply by more than 14 million metric tonnes collectively of wheat and canola per year by 2030 would have a major impact on the global supply of food in the future. There are lots of ways farmers can react to potential economic impacts of reduced fertilizer use, including acceptance of lower productivity. This would be devastating, such that any plan to reduce carbon emissions would need to be done in a way that the future productivity of major crops is maintained.”

[SASKFARMER]

I have to ask some of you that are for the fertilizer companies


DO ANY OF YOU ACTUALLY HAVE A POT TO PISS IN?

[bucket]

Please read this… it isn’t talking about 2022, short term production problems.


“ Implications of a Total Emissions Reduction Target on Fertilizer
Analysis of Potential Direct Financial Impacts on Canadian Farmers’ Fertilizer Use - Macro Analysis
Prepared for Fertilizer Canada
SUITE 1200, 242 HARGRAVE STREET, WINNIPEG, MB, R3C 0T8 T: 204.775.4531 F: 204.783.8329 MNP.ca

Executive Summary
Under Canada’s Strengthened Climate Plan, the government of Canada is envisioning a 30% reduction in absolute emissions by the year 2030. That would include chemical fertilizer reductions used in crop production by Canadian farmers to achieve their part of those targets. In order to achieve that, one existing measure of the magnitude of actual reduction in agricultural fertilizer use would be the model proposed under the EU Green Deal which cites an actual reduction of 20% in fertilizer use compared to 2020 levels. MNP LLP was engaged by Fertilizer Canada to analyze the direct macro financial impact of lost production and has modeled a 20% rate reduction starting in 2023 and the effect on farmer output until 2030.
To meet these reductions, there may be adjustments forced on farmers’ practices that will have varying degrees of net impact on farmers. This report is however based on the assumptions of continued farming practices (including crop rotation) as they are today to reflect the possibility of farmers accepting the lower production that lost nutrients would have on the production levels of their crops. The assumptions of this report summarize that effect by simply reducing the crop output and thereby presuming there is a direct correlation between available nutrients and loss in fertilizer use and impact on crop production. The analysis is focused on the effects for corn, canola, and spring wheat in Canada (three major crops that make up a major share of Canadian small grain/oilseed production), and is based on a similar number of acres for the three crops using the 5-year average, a straight-line reduction of fertilizer use starting in the year 2023 along with a straight-line reduction in yield based on industry yield response estimates for each crop, no inflation effects, and no effects of reduced crop supplies on crop prices until 2030.
A straight-line reduction in fertilizer usage results in increased differences of actual yields versus potential yields if the status quo had been continued. By 2030, yield gaps for the three crops are estimated at 23.6 bushels per acre per year for canola, 67.9 bushels per acre per year for corn, and 36.1 per acre per year bushels per acre for spring wheat. Given constant prices, the total value of lost production grows to 10.4 billion per year by 2030 and across the years 2023 to 2030 is shown for each crop as follows:
Implications of a Total Emissions Reduction Target on Fertilizer – Analysis of Potential Direct Financial Impacts on Canadian Farmers’ Fertilizer Use 4

The estimated lost production has significant effects on Canada’s ability to fill domestic processing capacity (e.g., canola crushing facilities) as well as export capacity. Assuming that domestic capacity will be filled first, it is estimated that by 2030 most Canadian exports of canola will not exist (only 750,000 metric tonnes of canola will be theoretically available for export compared to more than 10 million metric tonnes today). The reduction in annual spring wheat exports is estimated to be 4.2 million metric tonnes by 2030. The analysis for the three crops, as well as any potential impacts for other crops, will significantly impact Canada’s ability to reach its targets for domestic sales and exports of agri-food products and thereby have a major detriment to the Canadian agri-food economy. Finally, reducing Canada’s contribution to the global food supply by more than 14 million metric tonnes collectively of wheat and canola per year by 2030 would have a major impact on the global supply of food in the future. There are lots of ways farmers can react to potential economic impacts of reduced fertilizer use, including acceptance of lower productivity. This would be devastating, such that any plan to reduce carbon emissions would need to be done in a way that the future productivity of major crops is maintained.”

All while Russia and China take market share?

[foragefarmer]

I have to ask some of you that are for the fertilizer companies


DO ANY OF YOU ACTUALLY HAVE A POT TO PISS IN?

Not defending Fertilizer companies at all. I just realized after my dealer advised me in August that there was going to be a spike in fertilizer prices due to a global shortage and to buy as soon as possible I had to take action. So I took my Fertilizer's dealer advice and bought right there and then and saved a tonne of money. If I could get this information, sure as shit anybody else on Agrivlle could get the same information from their Fertilizer dealer as well.


In fact I stated on a couple of Fertilizer threads on Agriville in early September that my dealer was warning about a Fertilizer shortage and that prices were going to go through the roof.


Now you come on Agriville bitching and whining as usual on your little Friday rants, that your getting screwed over on Fertilizer prices and everybody should feel sorry for you.

Poor you, your the only farmer out there having a tough go at farming with expenses going through the roof and poor crops



DON'T WORRY ABOUT MY POT, I KNOW WHAT I HAVE IN IT AND I DON'T NEED TO SHARE IT ON AGRIVILLE LOOKING FOR APPROVAL LIKE YOU DO GOLDEN SPOON BOY.

[bucket]

Forage , your comment

In fact I stated on a couple of Fertilizer threads on Agriville in early September that my dealer was warning about a Fertilizer shortage and that prices were going to go through the roof.

They say that every year.

And why didn't the retails load up at 700bucks?And improve their margins to resell at 900 or higher?

Some retails sitting empty so did they really believe the story?