Durum Analysis

[wheatking16]

The latest Durum analysis.

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/durum-wheat-analysis

[jazz]

Canada is the dominant durum supplier and a new crop is 9 months away. 2021 production was 50% of average.

This reversal seems more like its following the larger market gyrations than anything to do with fundamentals.

[TOM4CWB]

Canada is the dominant durum supplier and a new crop is 9 months away. 2021 production was 50% of average.

This reversal seems more like its following the larger market gyrations than anything to do with fundamentals.

Market watchers look to wheat to lead the grain markets up... as Wheat goes... Durum will follow.

Vancouver/Rupert West coast shipping has kyboshed much Canadian wheat shipping... booking Durum Thunderbay east is going to be a post spring shipping schedule now... unless it goes stateside...

The BC floods will cost us all in delayed shipping for wheat/Durum!

Cheers

[wheatking16]

Canada is the dominant durum supplier and a new crop is 9 months away. 2021 production was 50% of average.

This reversal seems more like its following the larger market gyrations than anything to do with fundamentals.

When it comes to fundamentals, I don't know where to start or where to finish.

[beaverdam]

Is there a "commodity exchange" for durum in Europe? Africa? anywhere in the world?

Is using fibonacci levels the only way to "chart" a commodity like durum wheat?

What level are we currently?

[Rareearth]

There are hundreds of indicators, not just fibinachi. Many programs will use a commodity and calculate which indicator correlates best to that commodities price movements.

They work until they dont. Upside price movements are the riskiest for futures as commodities never go to zero ( unless its Alberta oil)

[wheatking16]

There are hundreds of indicators, not just fibinachi. Many programs will use a commodity and calculate which indicator correlates best to that commodities price movements.

They work until they dont. Upside price movements are the riskiest for futures as commodities never go to zero ( unless its Alberta oil)

Rareearth is correct.

No indicator works all the time.

The best results come from finding a confluence between several indicators, I like 3 to more, and then as Rareearth states, "They work until they don't".

One needs to put in the time to find one(s) that they are comfortable with.

It can be a rabbit hole that can be expensive to go down.

My charts have cleaned up since I first started.

Like most things, the K.I.S.S principle works best.

[helmsdale]

Rareearth is correct.

No indicator works all the time.

The best results come from finding a confluence between several indicators, I like 3 to more, and then as Rareearth states, "They work until they don't".

One needs to put in the time to find one(s) that they are comfortable with.

It can be a rabbit hole that can be expensive to go down.

My charts have cleaned up since I first started.

Like most things, the K.I.S.S principle works best.

Durum made an upward movement of$0.50 yesterday morning, then another $0.50 in the afternoon. RARE to see two movements up in one day let alone a week? It's back up to where i contracted it, so I'm not particularly concerned about delivering any overage now... That said, I think all i have left is a part load anyway. The peterbilt will be getting an annual oil change this year rather than an hour based pan bath. I doubt I'll make that delivery until after seed is in the ground as I would hate to short myself and have to source seed if any reseeding is needed, or late term seeding substitutions come up.

What sort of life is left in this market? It's kind of like Yellow Mustard at the moment... What does another buck (or 10 or 25 cents in the case of mustard) shake out of the market at this point? It would seem there are considerably more patient and optimistic sellers than myself if 21 bushel durum and 1.20 mustard wasn't enough to get you excited! I would think that 20 durum, and 1.00 mustard would have pretty much cleaned out all the positions, but i suppose their could be some late comers.

[helmach]

$25 durum enough said... waiting patiently

[BTO780]

$25 durum enough said... waiting patiently

As Gormley would say “I like your thinking”.

[BTO780]

Rumour is Algeria bought 240k mt at $715usd mt.
Not sure what this will do price wise.

[helmsdale]

Rumour is Algeria bought 240k mt at $715usd mt.
Not sure what this will do price wise.

Hearing Japan apparently in the market as well... negotiations ongoing.

[BTO780]

Hearing Japan apparently in the market as well... negotiations ongoing.

Japan bought no.3 and 4. They don’t want the good stuff.
One place I know of 3 and 4 is worth more than a 1.
What a game this is.
If the Algerian buy is true, they likely bought enough till the Mexican harvest comes off mid May.