Canary Seed Sell Signal

[shtferbrains]

Have you read Merchants of Grain? It is a great book.

That is an old book. About the great Soviet grain robbery that caught some big outfits uncovered?
Can't remeber at my age.

How many of the ones they talk about are still influential?

[helmsdale]

That is an old book. About the great Soviet grain robbery that caught some big outfits uncovered?
Can't remeber at my age.

How many of the ones they talk about are still influential?

Studying history is never an outdated past-time... While it may not repeat, it certainly rhymes.

[wheatking16]

No i haven't, but i will order it, thank-you.
Any other books you would recommend or utube videos?

I do enjoy Zeihan, Rob Saik, etc

I haven't read any Ag books for a number of years, however, I will read the Merchants of Grain again once I find my copy.

The New Merchants of Grain following Morgan's theme is on my list


I am reading Titan's by Peter Newman right now. It is 20 years old, however, I find Canadian history interesting.

[Guest]

This is a difficult question.

Remember that sell signals can mean full or partial positions.

Not every decision needs to be binary.

The factors below send mixed messages; however, I would consider them in this decision.

1. The price is still in a long-term uptrend.

2. The price is below the 10- and 20- week moving averages for the first time since July 2021, which means the short-term to intermediate-term is bearish. Is this the start of a trend change?

3. I have levels of interest at 48 and 40, which could act as support.

4. My first Canary Seed report had a sell signal on a break below 57.

5. The long-term chart shows that when the price is extended (it is now), you often get another selling opportunity close but below the high in the next 12 months before the price collapses.

6. Prices are close to 20% above the previous ATH.

7. Is this the high, or is the price settling down before moving higher?

8. Which will impact you more, a 20% increase or a 20% drop?

9. Laddering your sales at each additional sell signal (i.e. level of support) can effectively minimize regret, although it might not be the hit at the coffee shop.


My trading strategy is to sell on a trend change or a lower low so I would sell most to all of my production at this level or at 47.

I have given back more gains than I care to discuss which is the basis for aggressive profit-taking on a trend change.

Good luck

Thanks !

[Guest]

Well where else would they get their prices
From?????? You’re the one stating the tech
Analysis is correct so okey then who made the decision
To go against what the experts were saying?


And yes if the market was down then it’s down
That’s the type of insurance this is.
That’s why we need an effective revenue insurance
Which we don’t have either.

Why down we have an insurance where
You decide to have crop insurance or not
In the spring but during the fall you have
One or maybe even 2 chances to pick
Actual prices at a grain elevator that you could
Have sold your product for.

For example your guaranteed 1000 bushels
Of canola. Your wiped out so during the winter
You say to crop insurance I would have sold
This 1000 bushels today at x elevator and
This is their price. Or I would have sold
500 bushels today and then pick another
Time for the remaining 500 bushels
Would that make things more accurate?

But getting back to my inquiry what was the
Market projections at March 2020 for these crops??

And you really don’t know what a canary seed
Looks like? Do you farm? I don’t grow
Every crop but I know what the seeds looks
Like. Find that incredulous???

I don’t understand
Why didn’t you take the market price option ?
We didn’t cause it would of doubled our premium , and were happy with our coverage at the cost ,
Premium goes up hand in hand with coverage $ , same as any insurance ??
Which is what will happen next year(premiums will double)

[TechAnalyst]

Tech analyst respectfully do you have
Charts from March of last year regarding
Canola flax wheat peas?
Thanks in advance for your reply. What future
Prices were anticipated in March of 2020?

You are talking about two completely different objectives.

Crop insurance cannot try to predict what the price might be when setting rates. They should be setting them based on what the market is trading for fall delivery at the time the coverage is being set.

We on the other hand have basically one shot at marketing our annual production and we definitely should do our best to try to predict what prices might do.

To me, that means considering fundamentals, technicals, the commitment of traders reports and anything else that might be of assistance. Anything less would be akin to not spraying fungicide in high risk situations because I don't believe they work.

Another crucial difference is flexibility. If factors change next Tuesday, I can alter my strategy. For crop insurance, I assume once it's set that's it. (I'm not from Saskatchewan, I'm from a Grey Cup winning province).

As far as results, I will only go as far as pointing out that I posted here in December and April that I felt new crop prices were undervalued and implemented a marketing strategy with that in mind. You can guess the rest.

And just to be clear, I don't want to convince you of anything. I am trying to provide information for anyone who is interested.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And just to be clear, I don't want to convince you of anything. I am trying to provide information for anyone who is interested.

And your efforts are much appreciated. Your posts last winter were very valuable, if you are ever in the area, I definitely owe you a steak supper.

[dave4441]

thanks guys , but should i sell @ $.50 or not ........?
thats all thats offered in our area, did see $.56 for a while ,sold one for $.55, but was holding out for $.60(the stars)
signed ,
a pisspoor marketer

This exact concern is why technical trading analysis in short term can help make decisions because it measures the greed and fear in the market. Every market has that. Obviously it cant determine what future weather, currency or geopolitical risk is but it gives a sense of where things are headed. I think charts themselves are amazing tools that really paint the picture of where today's price sits historically.

Wheatking called a top somewhere between 55-60 on canaryseed. From a sales standpoint (which is more fundamentally based then anything) I could tell that anything above 55 cents was stopping/slowing purchases. Some CDN companies continued to buy canary above this value but destination markets pulled back hard. Today demand for new canary sales is poor and substitution is occurring. Any buyer that bought canary at 55 cents was essentially betting that in 2-3 months, when they receive that product, that their local market will support that sales price. They take a lot of risk on and have no ability to hedge that purchase. It is one thing as a grower to hold 55 cent canary but its another to buy it and have it shipped to you months in advance of delivery. The buyers started to get fearful at that value and backed away. As prices come down we lower our asking prices as well to the destination markets. If i buy canary at 50 cents today from a grower you can be assured i wont sit on that product, I will sell it. After 20 years of trading canaryseed, the extreme of the market that I have seen was 40 cents in 2002. Trying to decide if you will sell 50 cent canary (which is essentially a record price as well) should be easy. I realize its NOT that easy and that I have a unique position in this market.

In order to see the market go higher again would mean a short position from a Canadian exporter. I doubt too many people will get in that position considering the supply story in Canada. The buyers overseas have a great understanding about our supply from 2021 crop and have made commercial decisions about how to play their own inventories and supply. As prices soften they buy even less product and it exacerbates the drop in values. My feeling is we get to 40 cents by end of March and start of road bans as growers thrown in the towel in Jan/Feb. I have seen this period of softness in the canary market many times (usually coincides with crop production week in Stoon). "Short crops have long tails" is what best describe how these markets trade. The markets worst view is at harvest and over time the market sorts out what to do and this is why markets that go to extremes grind lower over time (as a farmer holding a long position, this is counter to our perception of what should occur). Flax, peas, durum, lentil markets all reacted same as canary this year as the market sorts out how to reduce their needs. They all hit at a slightly different time as well. If someone put a gun to my head you could not force me to be long $45/bushel flax on Dec 13. Not one bushel.

On the other hand, as a farmer, I missed the fertilizer market entirely and find myself similar to the birdseed buyer. Trying to sort out how i make due with less product, rely on soil inventories, grow more pulse crops, etc. The buyer of birdseed or flax have options as well.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And as for the concern that I have never seen a canary seed, this is barley and oats country. Canola and wheat are the exotic crops in this area.

I assume canary seed either grows into birds, or bird seed?

[riders2010]

And your efforts are much appreciated. Your posts last winter were very valuable, if you are ever in the area, I definitely owe you a steak supper.

I ll have a t bone medium well baked potato loaded up
And since I ve given you more actual real on the ground
Advice a couple jack daniels on the rocks!
Cheers.

By the way canary might go up today but
Then again it might go down!! So better get your
Targets in so the buyers are sure of
How low you’ll go.

Canary seed is yellow. Sort of like the bird.

[dave4441]

And as for the concern that I have never seen a canary seed, this is barley and oats country. Canola and wheat are the exotic crops in this area.

I assume canary seed either grows into birds, or bird seed?

Canaryseed is exacting what it sounds like. Seeds for canary birds. 99.9% of all canary is used for birdfood although there was a recent registration for human consumption but it is very limited use so far.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canaryseed is exacting what it sounds like. Seeds for canary birds. 99.9% of all canary is used for birdfood although there was a recent registration for human consumption but it is very limited use so far.

So, given the known voracious appetite of birds ( the saying eats like a bird comes to mind), I assume the consumer isn't at all price sensitive. Could triple the cost of the raw product, and tweety would only cost a few dollars more to feed per year?