Canary Seed Sell Signal

[riders2010]

Please continue to provide analysis though
It is always good to see as many perspectives
As possible. Mean that respectfully!!!!

I m just saying take these for what you value them
To be worth.

The entire crop insurance corporation must have been
Listening to who???? when they only gave us the option
Of insurance at half the market. Are there any actual
Farmers that thought canola was going to be that low?
Given what was happening outside your window
Whether it was you window on the house or your
Truck hundreds of miles away?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

How many farmers locked in crop based on
People that were using charts and many
Are in dire straits because of it? While
The line makers?

If they all knew more than us would they
Not be billionaires?

There are too many outside factors that change
Everyday including inside trader shit that make these
Irrelevant. About as accurate as saying a 60%
Chance of rain?

So given all of that, what are you hoping to take away from your time spent on this commodity marketing forum, if you don't want to discuss commodity marketing?
No one said you have to agree. But perhaps make a bookmark of this thread, then revisit it 6 months from now and see if the technical analysis had any merit in hindsight.

[riders2010]

So given all of that, what are you hoping to take away from your time spent on this commodity marketing forum, if you don't want to discuss commodity marketing?
No one said you have to agree. But perhaps make a bookmark of this thread, then revisit it 6 months from now and see if the technical analysis had any merit in hindsight.

I m discussing it. You aren’t! What does
Bullish above 60 bearish below 60 mean?
Start there. I asked the question.
Does it mean if it starts to go up it will go up
And if it starts to go down it will go down?

[riders2010]

Tech analyst respectfully do you have
Charts from March of last year regarding
Canola flax wheat peas?
Thanks in advance for your reply. What future
Prices were anticipated in March of 2020?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I m discussing it. You aren’t! What does
Bullish above 60 bearish below 60 mean?
Start there. I asked the question.
Does it mean if it starts to go up it will go up
And if it starts to go down it will go down?

I haven't contributed to the thread about Canary seed, mainly because I wouldn't even know what a canary seed looks like.
But as for defending the merits of technical analysis, I can attempt to respond when I get back to a computer later today. Well readily admitting that there are many here who are far more qualified than I am.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Tech analyst respectfully do you have
Charts from March of last year regarding
Canola flax wheat peas?
Thanks in advance for your reply. What future
Prices were anticipated in March of 2020?

I recommend going back and reading any and all posts by Macdon02. You might be surprised at how accurate they turned out to be.

[riders2010]

Yes that’s what I m asking. However I m
Asking for a different reason than you think
I m hoping that tech analyst and macdon etc
Were in fact correct in March 2020 that canola
Would be 22 bucks and flax 42, canary 60
Peas 16, because then I d be asking why
Crop insurance in Saskatchewan wrongfully
Screwed every farmer in Saskatchewan out of
Well known fundamental support of the
True prices for coverage? And also then why
We’re farmers only offered such lower than known
Forward contract prices for the fall and then as
You know as it turned out did not have adequate
Insurance to cover those shortfalls as well
As for those that didn’t lock in basically and
Truly screwed out of the proper amount of coverage.

So I am not asking to discredit anybody I m
Really wanting to know if there was support of
Higher prices that most of us knew were possible
Nothing more nothing less.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Yes that’s what I m asking. However I m
Asking for a different reason than you think
I m hoping that tech analyst and macdon etc
Were in fact correct in March 2020 that canola
Would be 22 bucks and flax 42, canary 60
Peas 16, because then I d be asking why
Crop insurance in Saskatchewan wrongfully
Screwed every farmer in Saskatchewan out of
Well known fundamental support of the
True prices for coverage? And also then why
We’re farmers only offered such lower than known
Forward contract prices for the fall and then as
You know as it turned out did not have adequate
Insurance to cover those shortfalls as well
As for those that didn’t lock in basically and
Truly screwed out of the proper amount of coverage.

So I am not asking to discredit anybody I m
Really wanting to know if there was support of
Higher prices that most of us knew were possible
Nothing more nothing less.

So if I understand that correctly, you are suggesting that the publicly subsidized crown corporations running crop insurance should have been speculating on the future price of grain, based on technical analysis?
And I assume that the opposite would also be true, if charts indicate prices should go down, that's crop insurance should
speculate in that direction as well?
Edit: consider what happened when the CWB was on the wrong side of the wheat market in 2008. Do you think the folks at crop insurance will be any more competent at guessing future price direction?

[helmsdale]

I don't think ANY of the technicals in 2020 would have indicated the prices we are seeing today as possible. That doesnt diminish their utility.

I've browsed through the klarenbach reports, and generally look at them with an "all else being equal" lens. Whereby the "all else" would be considered to be no new macro shocks. Nobody had to presell their 2021 production, but had their been no drought, no export duty's out of the FSU, etc... those prices could have certainly looked very wise today. In the same sense, I'd imagine their is a definite reluctance to presell 2022 production as one looks at the prices and says "that's just barely half of what's being offered now!"

I don't like the offered prices for 2022 production considering the new pricing for all things input related. I dread the idea of having to sell $9.75 durum, $10 CWRS, $17canola, or $9.90 peas with chemical, fertilizer, land rent etc at the prices they are. But there's always the possibility that we get skunked here in the special areas yield wise, and the rest of N.A. has a hummer which means all the sudden I'm selling 5bu peas @ $6.50, 5bu cwad/cwrs @ $7, and 5bu canola @ $10-11. All of those prices are historically "decent", perhaps even average. God forbid having to let it go for less than that. What does sub $50/acre gross get a guy these days?

All that said, i find technical analysis to be of greatest utility when I'm at the point that I'm ready to sell. Are my price points realistic? Does a rational analysis of market analytics support it or am I shooting for the moon? Take it for what it's worth, or in other words always be sure to DYODD.

[riders2010]

So if I understand that correctly, you are suggesting that the publicly subsidized crown corporations running crop insurance should have been speculating on the future price of grain, based on technical analysis?
And I assume that the opposite would also be true, if charts indicate prices should go down, that's crop insurance should
speculate in that direction as well?
Edit: consider what happened when the CWB was on the wrong side of the wheat market in 2008. Do you think the folks at crop insurance will be any more competent at guessing future price direction?

Well where else would they get their prices
From?????? You’re the one stating the tech
Analysis is correct so okey then who made the decision
To go against what the experts were saying?


And yes if the market was down then it’s down
That’s the type of insurance this is.
That’s why we need an effective revenue insurance
Which we don’t have either.

Why down we have an insurance where
You decide to have crop insurance or not
In the spring but during the fall you have
One or maybe even 2 chances to pick
Actual prices at a grain elevator that you could
Have sold your product for.

For example your guaranteed 1000 bushels
Of canola. Your wiped out so during the winter
You say to crop insurance I would have sold
This 1000 bushels today at x elevator and
This is their price. Or I would have sold
500 bushels today and then pick another
Time for the remaining 500 bushels
Would that make things more accurate?

But getting back to my inquiry what was the
Market projections at March 2020 for these crops??

And you really don’t know what a canary seed
Looks like? Do you farm? I don’t grow
Every crop but I know what the seeds looks
Like. Find that incredulous???