Canary Seed Sell Signal

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Tech analyst respectfully do you have
Charts from March of last year regarding
Canola flax wheat peas?
Thanks in advance for your reply. What future
Prices were anticipated in March of 2020?

I recommend going back and reading any and all posts by Macdon02. You might be surprised at how accurate they turned out to be.

[riders2010]

Yes that’s what I m asking. However I m
Asking for a different reason than you think
I m hoping that tech analyst and macdon etc
Were in fact correct in March 2020 that canola
Would be 22 bucks and flax 42, canary 60
Peas 16, because then I d be asking why
Crop insurance in Saskatchewan wrongfully
Screwed every farmer in Saskatchewan out of
Well known fundamental support of the
True prices for coverage? And also then why
We’re farmers only offered such lower than known
Forward contract prices for the fall and then as
You know as it turned out did not have adequate
Insurance to cover those shortfalls as well
As for those that didn’t lock in basically and
Truly screwed out of the proper amount of coverage.

So I am not asking to discredit anybody I m
Really wanting to know if there was support of
Higher prices that most of us knew were possible
Nothing more nothing less.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Yes that’s what I m asking. However I m
Asking for a different reason than you think
I m hoping that tech analyst and macdon etc
Were in fact correct in March 2020 that canola
Would be 22 bucks and flax 42, canary 60
Peas 16, because then I d be asking why
Crop insurance in Saskatchewan wrongfully
Screwed every farmer in Saskatchewan out of
Well known fundamental support of the
True prices for coverage? And also then why
We’re farmers only offered such lower than known
Forward contract prices for the fall and then as
You know as it turned out did not have adequate
Insurance to cover those shortfalls as well
As for those that didn’t lock in basically and
Truly screwed out of the proper amount of coverage.

So I am not asking to discredit anybody I m
Really wanting to know if there was support of
Higher prices that most of us knew were possible
Nothing more nothing less.

So if I understand that correctly, you are suggesting that the publicly subsidized crown corporations running crop insurance should have been speculating on the future price of grain, based on technical analysis?
And I assume that the opposite would also be true, if charts indicate prices should go down, that's crop insurance should
speculate in that direction as well?
Edit: consider what happened when the CWB was on the wrong side of the wheat market in 2008. Do you think the folks at crop insurance will be any more competent at guessing future price direction?

[helmsdale]

I don't think ANY of the technicals in 2020 would have indicated the prices we are seeing today as possible. That doesnt diminish their utility.

I've browsed through the klarenbach reports, and generally look at them with an "all else being equal" lens. Whereby the "all else" would be considered to be no new macro shocks. Nobody had to presell their 2021 production, but had their been no drought, no export duty's out of the FSU, etc... those prices could have certainly looked very wise today. In the same sense, I'd imagine their is a definite reluctance to presell 2022 production as one looks at the prices and says "that's just barely half of what's being offered now!"

I don't like the offered prices for 2022 production considering the new pricing for all things input related. I dread the idea of having to sell $9.75 durum, $10 CWRS, $17canola, or $9.90 peas with chemical, fertilizer, land rent etc at the prices they are. But there's always the possibility that we get skunked here in the special areas yield wise, and the rest of N.A. has a hummer which means all the sudden I'm selling 5bu peas @ $6.50, 5bu cwad/cwrs @ $7, and 5bu canola @ $10-11. All of those prices are historically "decent", perhaps even average. God forbid having to let it go for less than that. What does sub $50/acre gross get a guy these days?

All that said, i find technical analysis to be of greatest utility when I'm at the point that I'm ready to sell. Are my price points realistic? Does a rational analysis of market analytics support it or am I shooting for the moon? Take it for what it's worth, or in other words always be sure to DYODD.

[riders2010]

So if I understand that correctly, you are suggesting that the publicly subsidized crown corporations running crop insurance should have been speculating on the future price of grain, based on technical analysis?
And I assume that the opposite would also be true, if charts indicate prices should go down, that's crop insurance should
speculate in that direction as well?
Edit: consider what happened when the CWB was on the wrong side of the wheat market in 2008. Do you think the folks at crop insurance will be any more competent at guessing future price direction?

Well where else would they get their prices
From?????? You’re the one stating the tech
Analysis is correct so okey then who made the decision
To go against what the experts were saying?


And yes if the market was down then it’s down
That’s the type of insurance this is.
That’s why we need an effective revenue insurance
Which we don’t have either.

Why down we have an insurance where
You decide to have crop insurance or not
In the spring but during the fall you have
One or maybe even 2 chances to pick
Actual prices at a grain elevator that you could
Have sold your product for.

For example your guaranteed 1000 bushels
Of canola. Your wiped out so during the winter
You say to crop insurance I would have sold
This 1000 bushels today at x elevator and
This is their price. Or I would have sold
500 bushels today and then pick another
Time for the remaining 500 bushels
Would that make things more accurate?

But getting back to my inquiry what was the
Market projections at March 2020 for these crops??

And you really don’t know what a canary seed
Looks like? Do you farm? I don’t grow
Every crop but I know what the seeds looks
Like. Find that incredulous???

[wheatking16]

thanks guys , but should i sell @ $.50 or not ........?
thats all thats offered in our area, did see $.56 for a while ,sold one for $.55, but was holding out for $.60(the stars)
signed ,
a pisspoor marketer

This is a difficult question.

Remember that sell signals can mean full or partial positions.

Not every decision needs to be binary.

The factors below send mixed messages; however, I would consider them in this decision.

1. The price is still in a long-term uptrend.

2. The price is below the 10- and 20- week moving averages for the first time since July 2021, which means the short-term to intermediate-term is bearish. Is this the start of a trend change?

3. I have levels of interest at 48 and 40, which could act as support.

4. My first Canary Seed report had a sell signal on a break below 57.

5. The long-term chart shows that when the price is extended (it is now), you often get another selling opportunity close but below the high in the next 12 months before the price collapses.

6. Prices are close to 20% above the previous ATH.

7. Is this the high, or is the price settling down before moving higher?

8. Which will impact you more, a 20% increase or a 20% drop?

9. Laddering your sales at each additional sell signal (i.e. level of support) can effectively minimize regret, although it might not be the hit at the coffee shop.


My trading strategy is to sell on a trend change or a lower low so I would sell most to all of my production at this level or at 47.

I have given back more gains than I care to discuss which is the basis for aggressive profit-taking on a trend change.

Good luck

[Rareearth]

The great grain robbery in the early 70’s occurred, pulled off by the Russians, all with out technical analysis, futures markets, etc. Until it was too late.....there was no export reporting systems . Ask anyone under the age of 40 and they have no clue or idea....

In 2020-2021 great grain robbery pulled off by the Chinese, happened with futures markets, computers, citizens flying to outer space, etc. Until it was too late....there was no exporting reporting system ( in Canada, the USA implemented one as a result of the Russian robbery) Most today don't understand what happened.

Expect it to happen again. Pricing and futures markets reflect historic prices and are no guarantee of future pricing levels, buyers and exporters use public exchange and reporting systems for there own commercial benefits.
You dont go to the land auction and tell everyone what your going to bid, and what land, a week before the auction?

Charts, are a tool, and the best one in the box, its really all we have. Fundamentals we get some market analysis through news letters, analysts etc. Another tool that with the charting makes information easier to understand and meaning full.

Accurate, timely , export reporting validates and proves the chart directions and technicals.
Now again we need transparency in this carbon world to remain sustainable, volatility is not a farmers friend if they don't know or understand when, why and how to sell. Selling for cashflow reduces opportunities. Farmers dont sell to foreign countries or foreign buyers. The grain companies or exporters are the farmers customers, its the exporters that dont want export reporting, thats not sustainable.

[wheatking16]

The great grain robbery in the early 70’s occurred, pulled off by the Russians, all with out technical analysis, futures markets, etc. Until it was too late.....there was no export reporting systems . Ask anyone under the age of 40 and they have no clue or idea....

In 2020-2021 great grain robbery pulled off by the Chinese, happened with futures markets, computers, citizens flying to outer space, etc. Until it was too late....there was no exporting reporting system ( in Canada, the USA implemented one as a result of the Russian robbery) Most today don't understand what happened.

Expect it to happen again. Pricing and futures markets reflect historic prices and are no guarantee of future pricing levels, buyers and exporters use public exchange and reporting systems for there own commercial benefits.
You dont go to the land auction and tell everyone what your going to bid, and what land, a week before the auction?

Charts, are a tool, and the best one in the box, its really all we have. Fundamentals we get some market analysis through news letters, analysts etc. Another tool that with the charting makes information easier to understand and meaning full.

Accurate, timely , export reporting validates and proves the chart directions and technicals.
Now again we need transparency in this carbon world to remain sustainable, volatility is not a farmers friend if they don't know or understand when, why and how to sell. Selling for cashflow reduces opportunities. Farmers dont sell to foreign countries or foreign buyers. The grain companies or exporters are the farmers customers, its the exporters that dont want export reporting, thats not sustainable.

Have you read Merchants of Grain? It is a great book.

[Rareearth]

No i haven't, but i will order it, thank-you.
Any other books you would recommend or utube videos?

I do enjoy Zeihan, Rob Saik, etc

[shtferbrains]

Have you read Merchants of Grain? It is a great book.

That is an old book. About the great Soviet grain robbery that caught some big outfits uncovered?
Can't remeber at my age.

How many of the ones they talk about are still influential?

[helmsdale]

That is an old book. About the great Soviet grain robbery that caught some big outfits uncovered?
Can't remeber at my age.

How many of the ones they talk about are still influential?

Studying history is never an outdated past-time... While it may not repeat, it certainly rhymes.

[wheatking16]

No i haven't, but i will order it, thank-you.
Any other books you would recommend or utube videos?

I do enjoy Zeihan, Rob Saik, etc

I haven't read any Ag books for a number of years, however, I will read the Merchants of Grain again once I find my copy.

The New Merchants of Grain following Morgan's theme is on my list


I am reading Titan's by Peter Newman right now. It is 20 years old, however, I find Canadian history interesting.

[Guest]

This is a difficult question.

Remember that sell signals can mean full or partial positions.

Not every decision needs to be binary.

The factors below send mixed messages; however, I would consider them in this decision.

1. The price is still in a long-term uptrend.

2. The price is below the 10- and 20- week moving averages for the first time since July 2021, which means the short-term to intermediate-term is bearish. Is this the start of a trend change?

3. I have levels of interest at 48 and 40, which could act as support.

4. My first Canary Seed report had a sell signal on a break below 57.

5. The long-term chart shows that when the price is extended (it is now), you often get another selling opportunity close but below the high in the next 12 months before the price collapses.

6. Prices are close to 20% above the previous ATH.

7. Is this the high, or is the price settling down before moving higher?

8. Which will impact you more, a 20% increase or a 20% drop?

9. Laddering your sales at each additional sell signal (i.e. level of support) can effectively minimize regret, although it might not be the hit at the coffee shop.


My trading strategy is to sell on a trend change or a lower low so I would sell most to all of my production at this level or at 47.

I have given back more gains than I care to discuss which is the basis for aggressive profit-taking on a trend change.

Good luck

Thanks !

[Guest]

Well where else would they get their prices
From?????? You’re the one stating the tech
Analysis is correct so okey then who made the decision
To go against what the experts were saying?


And yes if the market was down then it’s down
That’s the type of insurance this is.
That’s why we need an effective revenue insurance
Which we don’t have either.

Why down we have an insurance where
You decide to have crop insurance or not
In the spring but during the fall you have
One or maybe even 2 chances to pick
Actual prices at a grain elevator that you could
Have sold your product for.

For example your guaranteed 1000 bushels
Of canola. Your wiped out so during the winter
You say to crop insurance I would have sold
This 1000 bushels today at x elevator and
This is their price. Or I would have sold
500 bushels today and then pick another
Time for the remaining 500 bushels
Would that make things more accurate?

But getting back to my inquiry what was the
Market projections at March 2020 for these crops??

And you really don’t know what a canary seed
Looks like? Do you farm? I don’t grow
Every crop but I know what the seeds looks
Like. Find that incredulous???

I don’t understand
Why didn’t you take the market price option ?
We didn’t cause it would of doubled our premium , and were happy with our coverage at the cost ,
Premium goes up hand in hand with coverage $ , same as any insurance ??
Which is what will happen next year(premiums will double)

[TechAnalyst]

Tech analyst respectfully do you have
Charts from March of last year regarding
Canola flax wheat peas?
Thanks in advance for your reply. What future
Prices were anticipated in March of 2020?

You are talking about two completely different objectives.

Crop insurance cannot try to predict what the price might be when setting rates. They should be setting them based on what the market is trading for fall delivery at the time the coverage is being set.

We on the other hand have basically one shot at marketing our annual production and we definitely should do our best to try to predict what prices might do.

To me, that means considering fundamentals, technicals, the commitment of traders reports and anything else that might be of assistance. Anything less would be akin to not spraying fungicide in high risk situations because I don't believe they work.

Another crucial difference is flexibility. If factors change next Tuesday, I can alter my strategy. For crop insurance, I assume once it's set that's it. (I'm not from Saskatchewan, I'm from a Grey Cup winning province).

As far as results, I will only go as far as pointing out that I posted here in December and April that I felt new crop prices were undervalued and implemented a marketing strategy with that in mind. You can guess the rest.

And just to be clear, I don't want to convince you of anything. I am trying to provide information for anyone who is interested.