Canary Seed Sell Signal

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And just to be clear, I don't want to convince you of anything. I am trying to provide information for anyone who is interested.

And your efforts are much appreciated. Your posts last winter were very valuable, if you are ever in the area, I definitely owe you a steak supper.

[dave4441]

thanks guys , but should i sell @ $.50 or not ........?
thats all thats offered in our area, did see $.56 for a while ,sold one for $.55, but was holding out for $.60(the stars)
signed ,
a pisspoor marketer

This exact concern is why technical trading analysis in short term can help make decisions because it measures the greed and fear in the market. Every market has that. Obviously it cant determine what future weather, currency or geopolitical risk is but it gives a sense of where things are headed. I think charts themselves are amazing tools that really paint the picture of where today's price sits historically.

Wheatking called a top somewhere between 55-60 on canaryseed. From a sales standpoint (which is more fundamentally based then anything) I could tell that anything above 55 cents was stopping/slowing purchases. Some CDN companies continued to buy canary above this value but destination markets pulled back hard. Today demand for new canary sales is poor and substitution is occurring. Any buyer that bought canary at 55 cents was essentially betting that in 2-3 months, when they receive that product, that their local market will support that sales price. They take a lot of risk on and have no ability to hedge that purchase. It is one thing as a grower to hold 55 cent canary but its another to buy it and have it shipped to you months in advance of delivery. The buyers started to get fearful at that value and backed away. As prices come down we lower our asking prices as well to the destination markets. If i buy canary at 50 cents today from a grower you can be assured i wont sit on that product, I will sell it. After 20 years of trading canaryseed, the extreme of the market that I have seen was 40 cents in 2002. Trying to decide if you will sell 50 cent canary (which is essentially a record price as well) should be easy. I realize its NOT that easy and that I have a unique position in this market.

In order to see the market go higher again would mean a short position from a Canadian exporter. I doubt too many people will get in that position considering the supply story in Canada. The buyers overseas have a great understanding about our supply from 2021 crop and have made commercial decisions about how to play their own inventories and supply. As prices soften they buy even less product and it exacerbates the drop in values. My feeling is we get to 40 cents by end of March and start of road bans as growers thrown in the towel in Jan/Feb. I have seen this period of softness in the canary market many times (usually coincides with crop production week in Stoon). "Short crops have long tails" is what best describe how these markets trade. The markets worst view is at harvest and over time the market sorts out what to do and this is why markets that go to extremes grind lower over time (as a farmer holding a long position, this is counter to our perception of what should occur). Flax, peas, durum, lentil markets all reacted same as canary this year as the market sorts out how to reduce their needs. They all hit at a slightly different time as well. If someone put a gun to my head you could not force me to be long $45/bushel flax on Dec 13. Not one bushel.

On the other hand, as a farmer, I missed the fertilizer market entirely and find myself similar to the birdseed buyer. Trying to sort out how i make due with less product, rely on soil inventories, grow more pulse crops, etc. The buyer of birdseed or flax have options as well.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And as for the concern that I have never seen a canary seed, this is barley and oats country. Canola and wheat are the exotic crops in this area.

I assume canary seed either grows into birds, or bird seed?

[riders2010]

And your efforts are much appreciated. Your posts last winter were very valuable, if you are ever in the area, I definitely owe you a steak supper.

I ll have a t bone medium well baked potato loaded up
And since I ve given you more actual real on the ground
Advice a couple jack daniels on the rocks!
Cheers.

By the way canary might go up today but
Then again it might go down!! So better get your
Targets in so the buyers are sure of
How low you’ll go.

Canary seed is yellow. Sort of like the bird.

[dave4441]

And as for the concern that I have never seen a canary seed, this is barley and oats country. Canola and wheat are the exotic crops in this area.

I assume canary seed either grows into birds, or bird seed?

Canaryseed is exacting what it sounds like. Seeds for canary birds. 99.9% of all canary is used for birdfood although there was a recent registration for human consumption but it is very limited use so far.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canaryseed is exacting what it sounds like. Seeds for canary birds. 99.9% of all canary is used for birdfood although there was a recent registration for human consumption but it is very limited use so far.

So, given the known voracious appetite of birds ( the saying eats like a bird comes to mind), I assume the consumer isn't at all price sensitive. Could triple the cost of the raw product, and tweety would only cost a few dollars more to feed per year?

[dave4441]

So, given the known voracious appetite of birds ( the saying eats like a bird comes to mind), I assume the consumer isn't at all price sensitive. Could triple the cost of the raw product, and tweety would only cost a few dollars more to feed per year?

Yes and no. In some markets like Mexico its really important. They feed it pure to their caged birds. Mexico is 25% of the market. This adds to the price inelasticity which canary is known for. But at the same time, traders that import the grain don't want to get caught with inventory in a falling market as they will take a hit. They want to sell everything they can at these values and be left with no product as they expect high prices to fall back down to 30-40 cents eventually. We have to keep in mind that average person in México has a very low annual income/person so prices eventually do matter. We have alot of similar demand throughout Latin America from people whose income has to be a daily challenge.

EU blends alot of the canary (also 25% of the market) with other grains so will do least cost formula to reduce their costs like any other business would. This is what causes price elasticity in high value markets.

[TOM4CWB]

Canaryseed is exacting what it sounds like. Seeds for canary birds. 99.9% of all canary is used for birdfood although there was a recent registration for human consumption but it is very limited use so far.

A grass [sort of like timothy] Simular seeds to sesame seed... but most old varieties are very itchy... and designed to plug your combine when it gets just a little tough! Then half a day to unplug and then de-itch... Had...No CGC Bonds,Regulation... CWB had no control... but...

Canada Grain Act makes canaryseed official - The Western ...https://www.producer.com › news › canada-grain-act-m...
Jun 17, 2021 — All canaryseed producers will be able to submit canaryseed samples to the CGC's popular Harvest Sample Program, which offers no-fee quality ...

Cheers

[sumdumguy]

We’ve tried feeding Canaryseed to birds here at the ‘ranch’ and no one here cares for it. Guinea Hens like Finch Mix with lots of black seeds in it and non-medicated chick starter, but no thanx to the canaryseed.

[TOM4CWB]

We’ve tried feeding Canaryseed to birds here at the ‘ranch’ and no one here cares for it. Guinea Hens like Finch Mix with lots of black seeds in it and non-medicated chick starter, but no thanx to the canaryseed.

Imports In 2019 the top importers of Canary seed were Mexico ($17.9M), Brazil ($14.3M), Belgium ($13.4M), Indonesia ($6.17M), and Spain ($6.16M).

[Guest]

new varieties a little less itchy, and yield considerably less around here

[farming101]

Yes and no. In some markets like Mexico its really important. They feed it pure to their caged birds. Mexico is 25% of the market. This adds to the price inelasticity which canary is known for. But at the same time, traders that import the grain don't want to get caught with inventory in a falling market as they will take a hit. They want to sell everything they can at these values and be left with no product as they expect high prices to fall back down to 30-40 cents eventually. We have to keep in mind that average person in México has a very low annual income/person so prices eventually do matter. We have alot of similar demand throughout Latin America from people whose income has to be a daily challenge.

EU blends alot of the canary (also 25% of the market) with other grains so will do least cost formula to reduce their costs like any other business would. This is what causes price elasticity in high value markets.

Thanks for the comment. These realities about substitution, affordability and hot potato commodities that nobody wants to own for any longer than they have to can be applied to a lot of markets.