In defense of techinal analysis

[TOM4CWB]

There was no indication in March 2020 that prices would be where they are now.
By June 2020 many were starting to pay attention to weather events and by the end of 2020 to trade patterns that set up what we have now.

For a producer, the decision to sell or not should always be based on their own circumstances and profit margins.
Wouldn't want it any other way

The Pandemic did however introduce fundamental additional shocks/risks to futures markets in March 2020.

The history isn't surprising... upon review.

[poorboy]

Is the big run up in grain prices more to do with the drought, or with the weakened currency because of all the new dollars printed?

Fundamentals only show some of the picture. Massive inrush/exiting of capital is what drives the prices up/down. (think funds). Technicals help to show the movement of money in or out. Problem seem to be that there is a lag between the technicals and the fundamentals (or vice versa) and it is hard to get a good read on far out future prices. Kind of like the weather, decently accurate short term , but not as much accuracy long term.

Both fundamentals and technicals are useful tools for marketing, and should be used together. Farmers tend to focus more on production fundamentals and often miss the demand fundamentals, which the technical charts help to show.

[TOM4CWB]

Is the big run up in grain prices more to do with the drought, or with the weakened currency because of all the new dollars printed?

Fundamentals only show some of the picture. Massive inrush/exiting of capital is what drives the prices up/down. (think funds). Technicals help to show the movement of money in or out. Problem seem to be that there is a lag between the technicals and the fundamentals (or vice versa) and it is hard to get a good read on far out future prices. Kind of like the weather, decently accurate short term , but not as much accuracy long term.

Both fundamentals and technicals are useful tools for marketing, and should be used together. Farmers tend to focus more on production fundamentals and often miss the demand fundamentals, which the technical charts help to show.

With Mar22 Mini Spring Wheat at $10.18 and Dec 22 at $9.12... the northern US and Canadian prairie drought regions are support for all NA wheat markets ...Russia has export taxes to restrict movement...US KC winter wheat regions are dry going into winter... that is a historically high wheat price... the UD$ is also at a recent high level...