Thoughts on Fertilizer

[helmsdale]

An agent (I wont out the company or the person) that I talked to today said he has booked/shipped less than 10% of what he typically has done by this time of year from end of seeding this year. And at that, he typically has 50% of total spoken for or gone out of the yard by now. That equates to 5% of average fertilizer demand accounted for as of now.

There's two sides of the coin, if none is moving at these prices, perhaps wholesalers will have to drop prices to get movement? Or, with so many guys waiting it out, that leaves a tremendous amount of demand to come forward yet, which means that will further exasperate any sort of shortages which pushes prices up?

I've made my peace with possibly bare-balling this crop. I cannot in good conscience spend this kind of money knowing that with ZERO soil moisture, this particular region doesnt stand a very good chance of pulling much of a crop, and perhaps an even worse one than the disaster that was 2021.

What are other guys seeing? Is this a Southern Alberta anomaly?

It seems natural that fertilizer layout will decrease with increased prices, but if they are even remotely close to as low as this area on a global scale, then are we possibly heading towards a man-made global food shortage? In that case, these lofty prices aren't likely going anywhere, and therefore a guy should bite the bullet and lay at least average groceries at it?

Being that we're short of alot of commodities already, if the global ag community lops off the top end potential for any fertilizer intensive crop (canola/corn/other cereals) does it further exacerbate global shortages?

[Taiga]

I have written off 2022 already. It was totally dry before freeze up, hardly any snow yet this winter (snow does not add much anyway). Have bought enough alfalfa to seed 100% alfalfa next year if I have to. Not paying twice for fert than I did last year. Still wait and see approach.

[helmsdale]

I have written off 2022 already. It was totally dry before freeze up, hardly any snow yet this winter (snow does not add much anyway). Have bought enough alfalfa to seed 100% alfalfa next year if I have to. Not paying twice for fert than I did last year. Still wait and see approach.

I'm seeing close to 2.5x and still climbing...

Let's say it goes to 3x. Do guys in sure crop areas who had impressive fertilizer laydowns before triple their outlay for the upcoming year? With soil moisture levels across western canada, the sure crop area has certainly decreased...

Let's say alot of producers keep their $ outlays the same per acre, that means what 40-45% of traditional fertilizer laydowns? That SERIOUSLY caps the top end potential for production. Now take that global rather than just regional, and its impact is potentially monumental!

[GDR]

But why hasnt the guy shipped out/ sold the product? Are his bins full because lots of us have spoke for and bought fert that the retailer still doesnt have. I made the deal in Sept for Nov take and then they said Dec, now saying January. I'm just hoping they have some by spring.

Dry here too, without abnormally wet year or will be sub par for 2022.

[helmsdale]

But why hasnt the guy shipped out/ sold the product? Are his bins full because lots of us have spoke for and bought fert that the retailer still doesnt have.

There physically are no buyers. Product is in store. I know of 4 people that have taken and or pre-bought fertilizer committing to take it. Everyone else is playing the waiting game. And of those 4, one has sourced enough to put just 30lb's down and thinks that might be all he'll buy if price doesnt come down.

[TOM4CWB]

There physically are no buyers. Product is in store. I know of 4 people that have taken and or pre-bought fertilizer committing to take it. Everyone else is playing the waiting game. And of those 4, one has sourced enough to put just 30lb's down and thinks that might be all he'll buy if price doesnt come down.

Make a deal that if the price drops, you get the lower price. 15 years ago that was always the deal. If they are a decent supplier that isn't at all unreasonable... and solves the seeding time supply issue...Win Win!
Just ask!

Cheers

[Tucker]

I think it's great if all us superfarmers here can say "Nope, I'm not paying that." I think the real problem might be the famers who get operating loans every year or just didn't have a crop this year who will be saying "I can't afford that." Go to your local credit union or Royal Bank and say that the regular $300k won't be enough this year, we need to bump that number up to $750k. Think they'll hand over that cash for you?

Between the won't pays and the can't pays and the ongoing drought we could be in the beginning stages of the biggest famine in our history. This isn't just Canada either, this is worldwide.

[jazz]

There physically are no buyers. Product is in store. I know of 4 people that have taken and or pre-bought fertilizer committing to take it. Everyone else is playing the waiting game. And of those 4, one has sourced enough to put just 30lb's down and thinks that might be all he'll buy if price doesnt come down.

This doesnt sound right hamloc. The buyers I have talked to were so freaked out by the price volatility that they wouldnt commit to bring any product into their facility that not paid upfront by the farmer taking it.

Sounds like this place you are talking about got a little ahead of themselves.

[jazz]

Between the won't pays and the can't pays and the ongoing drought we could be in the beginning stages of the biggest famine in our history. This isn't just Canada either, this is worldwide.

I wanted to address this separately. Do these govt today seem like the type that will recognize an imbalance like that and move to correct it?

All signs point to them passing more regulations on it rather than helping stimulate supply.

When crisis arrives they get draconian as we have already seen.

Personally I think they will be happy to see less food at a higher price for the masses.

[shtferbrains]

I wanted to address this separately. Do these govt today seem like the type that will recognize an imbalance like that and move to correct it?

All signs point to them passing more regulations on it rather than helping stimulate supply.

When crisis arrives they get draconian as we have already seen.

Personally I think they will be happy to see less food at a higher price for the masses.

Happens with some regularity when socialist make a power play.

Great reset followed by mass starvation.

[bucket]

The US DoJ has been tasked with looking into the price of fertilizer by US farm groups.

In Canada farm groups are cheerleading the new board members , and being castrated by the Saskparty for forgetting to ask before they criticized their pals.

[tweety]

There physically are no buyers. Product is in store. I know of 4 people that have taken and or pre-bought fertilizer committing to take it. Everyone else is playing the waiting game. And of those 4, one has sourced enough to put just 30lb's down and thinks that might be all he'll buy if price doesnt come down.

Retailers know exactly how much fertilizer is needed. Everybody knows exactly what you use as enough of you have graciously paid to give your all your data, along with accurate yields. So thank you for that. The best thing you can do is absolutely nothing.

1. It hasn't cost nutrien triple the price to make urea.
2. If there are suckers willing to pay for fert at these prices - why not take their money.
3. Everybody knows you can still grow an ok crop with 30 to 40 lbs of N - except farmers it seems.
4. It's gonna be a wild ride, it is the 1 year in 10 when buying fert in the fall makes no sense.
5. Don't be so stressed it causes you mental illness. It will be ok, and please talk to a counsellor and get help if it is too much. If you let this situation build in your head, you may lose more then some money.

[helmsdale]

Sounds like this place you are talking about got a little ahead of themselves.

Nothing out of the ordinary with this particular place. Supply not an issue. If you want it they can get it, and blending bins are ready to go for immediate pickup if wanted. The issue is NO DEMAND! Nothing, nada, zero!

To put this into perspective, I'd have to sell ALL of what I have available for sale from this last crop, in order to afford the same groceries for this year.

[helmsdale]

.
5. Don't be so stressed it causes you mental illness. It will be ok, and please talk to a counsellor and get help if it is too much. If you let this situation build in your head, you may lose more then some money.

Dont worry. I'll be just fine.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

[QUOTE=tweety;521219]
3. Everybody knows you can still grow an ok crop with 30 to 40 lbs of N - except farmers it seems.
4. It's gonna be a wild ride, it is the 1 year in 10 when buying fert in the fall makes no sense.

Define an OK crop? Out here in the high rainfall area, I could grow 1/3 to 1/2 a crop with those rates. Fertilizer still the best ROI of any expense on the this farm.
I'm going to bookmark this and refer back to your #4 next spring. If correct, will you consider offering a paid marketing service? I would sign up