Oat Futures Sell Signal

[farming101]

Cash quotes Jan 14 700/t+

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Cash quotes Jan 14 700/t+

I Don't follow oats. But over at NewAgTalk, there is a thread asking what oats knows.

This was one of the responses:
I could argue oats doesn't even know oats. The cash price has actually gone up while the futures price dropped a dollar.

[shtferbrains]

I Don't follow oats. But over at NewAgTalk, there is a thread asking what oats knows.

This was one of the responses:
I could argue oats doesn't even know oats. The cash price has actually gone up while the futures price dropped a dollar.

Definently putting a little of the fear element into the market of late.

I guess that would be fear of bears?

[errolanderson]

In the old 'open outcry days' of Chicago grain trading and price discovery, floor traders paid attention to a sudden change in oat futures by the one (1) oat trader standing between two rails on the CBOT floor.

Oats is generally devoid of speculators, a true cash market indication. A canary in the coalmine, so-to-say.

[LWeber]

In the old 'open outcry days' of Chicago grain trading and price discovery, floor traders paid attention to a sudden change in oat futures by the one (1) oat trader standing between two rails on the CBOT floor.

Oats is generally devoid of speculators, a true cash market indication. A canary in the coalmine, so-to-say.

That one oat trader owned a Lear Jet and he didn't stand - he sat off to the side in a chair with hsi arms crossed from 9:25 to 1:20. There were never more than 5-10 oat traders in the open outcry pit and a good chance half of them were carrying his orders. That was then - this is now...

If you believe that Oat futures are indicative of the cash market; what companies use CME Oat futures to price their cash bids?

[LWeber]

Oats is generally devoid of speculators, a true cash market indication. .

May 04, 2021 - Money Managers owned 26.25% of the oats Open interest.

One in four positions were speculative or maybe grain companies hire money managers to hedge their cash oats and export sales ...

[farming101]

There are a large amount of non-reportables positions on in the oats pit

While it is always a bit of a mystery as to who these are because it depends on how you are described in your application to trade they are generally termed as those who hold positions below the level that is required to report to the CFTC and are often small speculators
Also of note is that 4 or less entities hold a significant amount of the positions in the oats pit
That usually means that whenever there is someone who bids a three lot the large holders know who is picking up the tab that evening
Below, Legacy, futures only report from Dec 28. Not sure where the Jan 4 report is?

[Guest]

I took some april $10.75 this morning
It is enough

[LWeber]

There are a large amount of non-reportables positions on in the oats pit

While it is always a bit of a mystery as to who these are because it depends on how you are described in your application to trade they are generally termed as those who hold positions below the level that is required to report to the CFTC and are often small speculators
Also of note is that 4 or less entities hold a significant amount of the positions in the oats pit
That usually means that whenever there is someone who bids a three lot the large holders know who is picking up the tab that evening
Below, Legacy, futures only report from Dec 28. Not sure where the Jan 4 report is?
[ATTACH]9631[/ATTACH]

From a CBOT floor trader circa 1995...
"Gentlemen don't trade wheat
W h ores don't trade oats"

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thank you to Errol and Larry, and 101, Wheatking, Tech etc. for contributions to a great thread such as this. Real experience, and different perspectives, analysis, all make this site worthwhile.

This is why I come here for. Picking on blowhards like Chuck in other threads is just entertainment to fill in the voids.