Wheat

[BTO780]

This market seems to be the one that is struggling to make gains like others have. It’s been disappointing to say the least. Yes it’s the Christmas blues, but even the prior months it hasn’t done much.
Again, the world is full of wheat. Doesn’t matter the quality, it’s all about quantity.
Here’s hoping after the new yr there will be some upside happening as it has a long ways to go to hit farmers expectations. Guess the trade knows what we want and the crooks keep a lid on prices.

[TOM4CWB]

This market seems to be the one that is struggling to make gains like others have. It’s been disappointing to say the least. Yes it’s the Christmas blues, but even the prior months it hasn’t done much.
Again, the world is full of wheat. Doesn’t matter the quality, it’s all about quantity.
Here’s hoping after the new yr there will be some upside happening as it has a long ways to go to hit farmers expectations. Guess the trade knows what we want and the crooks keep a lid on prices.

This is the first time in modern history... that high quality wheat is traded in an open un-manipulated marketplace[in concert with DNS Mini wheat]. The lack of CWB manipulation [pooling of 12 months western CDN wheat supply] increases volitlity. Wheat Farmers are no less 'greedy' than fertilizer manufacturers... a shortage in supply caused by weather and political instability [Russia] on both counts!

[TechAnalyst]

It appears as though the bull market correction of the past month has come to an end.

Buy signals (on indicators I follow) confirmed yesterday on the daily chart suggesting the next leg higher has started. This signal in particular has an initial target of $9.50 with a secondary at $9.90 (for March Chicago wheat). That works well with the next historic resistance on the monthly chart near $9.50 (9.4725 high put in July 2012).

That would also support the fantastic looking saucer bottom formation playing out on the monthly chart.

It does suggest developing a marketing plan that works in an increasing price environment.

[wheatking16]

It appears as though the bull market correction of the past month has come to an end.

Buy signals (on indicators I follow) confirmed yesterday on the daily chart suggesting the next leg higher has started. This signal in particular has an initial target of $9.50 with a secondary at $9.90 (for March Chicago wheat). That works well with the next historic resistance on the monthly chart near $9.50 (9.4725 high put in July 2012).

That would also support the fantastic looking saucer bottom formation playing out on the monthly chart.

It does suggest developing a marketing plan that works in an increasing price environment.

The saucer bottom formation suggests expensive food in the future and major societal disruptions.

[errolanderson]

Wheat prices have turned down recently, primarily led by Chicago . . . .

Chicago wheat is now technically bearish after recently breaking the 100-day moving average. It may be in the final phase of a head and shoulders chart formation. Near-term rebound possible, but fresh highs not in- the-cards (IMO). Minneapolis spring wheat is also a tired market.

Many commodities are now starting to roll over. But excellent prices for wheat growers to take advantage of.

[furrowtickler]

Wheat prices have turned down recently, primarily led by Chicago . . . .

Chicago wheat is now technically bearish after recently breaking the 100-day moving average. It may be in the final phase of a head and shoulders chart formation. Near-term rebound possible, but fresh highs not in- the-cards (IMO). Minneapolis spring wheat is also a tired market.

Many commodities are now starting to roll over. But excellent prices for wheat growers to take advantage of.

Prices are ok at best considering huge input pricing , machinery costs and low yields . Will need these prices through next fall to be profitable, but that won’t happen most likely.

But yes , for those who had crop , no doubt a good opportunity.

[furrowtickler]

Nice move up this afternoon 👍

HRSW basis getting awfully wide though at elevators.
No one really buying it seems

[WiltonRanch]

Nice move up this afternoon 👍

HRSW basis getting awfully wide though at elevators.
No one really buying it seems

Bring your samples west.

[errolanderson]

'Heads up' again . . . . Minneapolis spring cracking with the March breaking below $10/bu. Kansas City and Chicago taking heavy price hits. Major support for March Chicago wheat is seen as low as $7/bu technically should sell-off gain momentum into early 2022.

Note: U.S. grain export pace (soybeans, corn and wheat) remain well below year ago levels. A too-strong USD an export deterent . . . .

[BTO780]

Why I grow this stuff is beyond me! Getting to be the biggest joke of a commodity.
Zero acres next yr.

[errolanderson]

Why I grow this stuff is beyond me! Getting to be the biggest joke of a commodity.
Zero acres next yr.

Ukraine analysts warned of this potential wheat price setback recently. Pullback of Russian troops may have eased the geopolitical premium built into Black Sea wheat export prices.

[errolanderson]

French wheat broke its 100-day MA overnight . . . more tough technical news for wheat bulls.

U.S. wheat futures downtrend remains in-tact (IMO) . . . .

[wheatking16]

French wheat broke its 100-day MA overnight . . . more tough technical news for wheat bulls.

U.S. wheat futures downtrend remains in-tact (IMO) . . . .

Interesting. I haven't been watching French wheat.

I don't typically plot the 100 DMA, however, the MGEX 100 is beginning to decline as well.

The 200 DMA is aligning with my 886 target on the March contract and 990 on the Continuous chart.






I added a page on my website to track my analysis.

https://www.klarenbach.ca/analysis/grain-report/hard-red-spring-wheat-futures-mgex

[Partners]

So how far is it going to fall?
Down $1.75 a bushel last few days..

[wheatking16]

So how far is it going to fall?
Down $1.75 a bushel last few days..

My next MGEX target is 886.

My next NW SK target is $10.75-11.00...... for now.....

https://www.klarenbach.ca/analysis/grain-report/cwrs-wheat-nw-sk

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