Let me get this straight

[bucket]

The PEI potato problem is partially solved in the short term with a $28million advance from the federal government.


While ranchers in Saskatchewan are dumping their herds because of a drought knowing full well they don't have any other choice. Technically they are on their own.

I realize PEI voted liberal but the federal government is to represent every corner of the country.

And why isn't the conservatives taking the lead on the prairie issues and leaving the PEI liberal MPs to do their job.

It also makes me wonder why the cattle announcement made in August had ranchers waiting until December.

[15444]

Being that the drought covers such a huge area, I really don't know what the Feds could do for cattle guys that they already haven't. Sure the feed payment could have been doubled or tripled, but scarcity is still the #1 issue. Price I got for feed quality wheat straw in MB was 14 cents/lb.

Honestly I was amazed the Feds stepped up at all this year. If Trudeau really wanted to silence ranchers for good, he could have just told them to piss up a tree. Most of the livestock sector would have been decimated.

My question I ask guys is this, if the drought continues in 2022, what preemptive measures have you taken to prepare for that very real possibility?

Personally, I have spoken for the entire 2022 hay crop from one local hay producer and working on obtaining extra pasture leases, while building more fence on my own land.

Most guys I ask that question...their answer? Getting out in 2022.

[helmsdale]

The drought and resultant externalities have hit hard around here... I will be fine this year, but am certainly concerned about what insurance is going to cost to ensure I can put a crop in 2 years from now. Id expect both public and private premiums to go through the roof. Public option will have to take into account the higher commodity prices, and the Private option will have to take into account the skyrocketing cost of inputs. Neither is going to be pretty.

The Short version:
There is NO excess liquidity floating around here! This area and many others in southern alberta will be chopping themselves off at the knees and maybe the waist by going absolute minimalist on inputs. If commodity prices crater back to normal, and worst case, we end up droughted again next year, Ritchie Bros is going to be EXTREMELY busy!

the LONG version:
This is not necessarily my scenario, but there are many here that are experiencing it. Imagine if you will, that you pre-sold a rather modest 5-8 bu/ac of peas/lentils/canola/wheat/durum, to get some degree of off combine (and by that I generally mean prior to mid november or December) movement. You watch that crop all summer want to crawl back into the ground from where it came, and start notifying buyers that it's unlikely you'll be able to honor even those pissy 5-8bu/ac contracts. We've all heard it from the buyers: "if you want some prompt movement to pay bills, its good to pick a september/october contract, and the earlier the better, because prices will go down the closer we get to harvest." or, "the price looks really good, come on, signing as much as 10bu/ac is impossible not to fill!", etc...

Now, you hit that crop with a combine, and realize there's literally only 5bu there, or worst case scenario, there's only 3, or god forbid (there were a few examples of this around here) the entire field minus some water runs and low spots aborted and there's 1bu/ac or less. About this time, the phone starts ringing from input suppliers, advising you to: "pre-buy now, we're hearing rumors that fertilizer is going to be in short supply!" Good grief, that's all you needed to hear as you're stressed about the rising commodity markets, now making it more and more expensive to buyout your unfillable contracts, that buyers will not let you out from under until such time as you've actually delivered what little you have... But your contract is september or october, and its only august, so they wont take it and settle with you anyway!

Now you finally get to deliver, and the price (in the case of durum) has damned near tripled. You fill the first 2bu with $8 durum thats fair market valued at $21-22, then the penalties on buying out the remaining 3 or 5 bu/ac put you with a net -$50 to -$70/ac bill plus the cost to haul it, and you still haven't paid back your inputs, or paid any wages, or made any machinery/infrastructure/land payments! Or for that matter if you sell your 3bu that you got, you wont even have seed for next year!

To top it all off, there is ZERO subsoil moisture, not to mention surface moisture, and now input suppliers are hounding you to get your ducks in a row for next year! Sure, you collect your crop insurance at $150-200/ac minus the 2, 3, or 5bu an acre that you literally took $50-70 loss on... It's BAD! This effing snowball is really starting to pick up speed.

[Guest]

That’s a really good example helmsdale of how ****ed out it is
These bloodthirsty pricks cannot help themselves
And our so called farm groups , conservatives, ndp , etc. have not even asked why nitrogen tripled ??
So ****en sick and tired of hearing “because of c——-“
No one even mentions that *** carbon tax that has doubled the price of life in canada
Wait till you see your farm ins , its up 15-20% also

[helmsdale]

Honestly, this thread deserves a bump... In a perfect world, government would cater to all areas of a country regardless of how they vote, but its brutally apparent that's not the case.

I'm not asking for a bailout, let alone a handout, but if they (and by this i mean all layers of government) neglect this file for much longer, it stands the chance of becoming terminal. Governments of all stripes are famous for acting reactively rather than proactively, but it would be nice at the very least to know that there's someone at least paying attention to this.

I'm completely spit balling here, but a couple options come to mind...

1) If government is supposedly subsidizing public crop insurance by the tune of 50% plus, then perhaps they could extend that to private insurance? Now that likely becomes a top up to private insurance companies, but possibly rather than reducing the premium, they take some of the risk off the hands of the private insurers in the event that there are gross payouts exceeding $X millions, or billions? Not quite sure how to equitably address this one. There are some that would argue, that this would put public insurance options at a disadvantage, by artificially lowering the cost to private insurers, which could then run the public option out of business... Dare I ask... Why is the private option competitive, let alone in many instances advantageous without a subsidy then?

2) With regards to the staggering cost of inputs, and the very real lack of banked moisture for most areas, perhaps one could come up with something to take some of the risk off the table for at least an average laydown of fertilizer and related inputs that says in the event of continued drought, the government will pick up part of the tab? In this case, we aren't setting a ridiculously low top end yield potential across western canada in the event that this drought breaks and finally delivers some moisture? In the event that yields are at least average (area dependant perhaps) you would be fully responsible for the cost of said inputs, but at least if you got skunked you wouldn't have to make an insolvency lawyer your first call... In the event that it does rain, everyone down stream gets to make a couple bucks with increased tonnage, and god forbid with the very real possibility of sustained drought, we can stave off industry wide layoffs, insolvencies, and monopolistic consolidation?

I'm all ears to other ideas...

As it stands, I'll be bare-balling most crops fertilizer wise aside from some starter, and avoiding all other input costs to the best of my abilities. I, and most in my area, are in survival mode. Some guys are staring their 3rd year of disaster in a row, and SE of here between me and galaxie500 a few are looking at their 4th consecutive wreck. To those able to scrounge up enough to take a 4th crack at this thing called farming, I salute you! It's damned near like the priesthood around these sorts... you dont get into it for the money, it's a calling...