Canola Update

[Partners]

What should we make of this?

Have deliveries really been this high that they are full, everyone taking advantage of the prices, and if so, why would they need to have offered such prices?

Or is their crush program throttled back so far due to lack of demand at these prices?

Just trying to figure out what happens later on, if supply is going to run right out, or if demand drops off so far that it stretches out.

Bunge price hit 24 dollars Feb a few weeks ago.
So maybe the GPA triggered?

[GDR]

What should we make of this?

Have deliveries really been this high that they are full, everyone taking advantage of the prices, and if so, why would they need to have offered such prices?

Or is their crush program throttled back so far due to lack of demand at these prices?

Just trying to figure out what happens later on, if supply is going to run right out, or if demand drops off so far that it stretches out.

No surplus in my yard but my gut feeling is they may find more canola bins than we all think.

[TechAnalyst]

Looking good,,, 1009 at the moment.

Interested to understand,,, are you thinking we're going to move higher due to product demand, or because of devaluing of the CND?

Looked at the Max chart, all time high looks like it's around $1100/t, any idea the value of the CND at that time?

Ty for posting

It looks like the CND was just over par in '74, trading around 1.01 when canola put in the $1100/t top.

If it was based on fair value in US$ terms, the equivalent today based on a $.78 CND would be about $1410/t.

I believe at the time it was a short squeeze in canola with the bins swept clean so it was likely an overshoot of fair value then.

Interesting if no other significance.

Merry Christmas all.

[TASFarms]

Canola knocking on $1100 door.

[beaverdam]

It looks like the CND was just over par in '74, trading around 1.01 when canola put in the $1100/t top.

If it was based on fair value in US$ terms, the equivalent today based on a $.78 CND would be about $1410/t.

I believe at the time it was a short squeeze in canola with the bins swept clean so it was likely an overshoot of fair value then.

Interesting if no other significance.

Merry Christmas all.

If I remember correctly, elevator prices were never even close to the $1,100/t, not sure if they were even $550/t

[shtferbrains]

If I remember correctly, elevator prices were never even close to the $1,100/t, not sure if they were even $550/t

From a Manitoba chart says $7 maybe ave for yr.

Appeared to trade in $5-$6 range around that time.

If I remeber you could buy a new 4430 for $16 to $25k. No duals.

There were dealers about every 25 to 50 miles who would order one for you.

Surprised if futures market was a factor as acreage was limited and regional. Do recall a very active Flax market that year.

[bucket]

If I remeber you could buy a new 4430 for $16 to $25k. No duals.


And today you would be lucky to buy one with 8000 hours on it for that!

[fjlip]

If I remeber you could buy a new 4430 for $16 to $25k. No duals.


And today you would be lucky to buy one with 8000 hours on it for that!

Neighbor bought 4430 in 1973 WITH duals AC, 14000. 1972 without duals was 13000. that same tractor I heard was over 15000 hrs maybe 15 years ago.

Wow a huge tractor! our 1270 Case was 12000 in 1972.

Bunge Nip over $24 atm

[shtferbrains]

Neighbor bought 4430 in 1973 WITH duals AC, 14000. 1972 without duals was 13000. that same tractor I heard was over 15000 hrs maybe 15 years ago.

Wow a huge tractor! our 1270 Case was 12000 in 1972.

Bunge Nip over $24 atm

New equipment was very hard to get and wait list were long. When you got it the dealer often offered to buy it from you as could resell it for more.

Partly due to good grain values making new affordable and partly due to much better and maybe larger offerings from most companies.

[Partners]

Price of iron will not go down because they are way behind in orders.
Hopefully we will never catch up in grain production either to keep pace..
Seems a 10k increase is the # for swing augers, rock pickers and even 1805 bins..

[TechAnalyst]

If I remember correctly, elevator prices were never even close to the $1,100/t, not sure if they were even $550/t

It is quite possible that the nearby futures contract (that makes up a continuous long term chart) rallied sharply on a short squeeze going into the delivery period. The deferred contracts do not necessarily follow suit.

Grain companies tend to start pricing off deferred contracts as soon as the volatility starts to get unmanageable in the nearby contract. This past year has seen many examples of that.

The lack of liquidity at the time likely compounded the problems.

[TechAnalyst]

I would like to note that I haven't been able to find any data going back that far to support or contradict the continuous chart on barchart.com (with the high of approximately $1100/t).

I would assume it is from a reliable source but I cannot confirm.

[farming101]

I would like to note that I haven't been able to find any data going back that far to support or contradict the continuous chart on barchart.com (with the high of approximately $1100/t).

I would assume it is from a reliable source but I cannot confirm.

November 6, 1974 intraday high
Nov/74 contract in delivery
Open 1001
High 1101
Closed 992

[shtferbrains]

November 6, 1974 intraday high
Nov/74 contract in delivery
Open 1001
High 1101
Closed 992

Is that a daytrader's dream or nightmare?

[farming101]

Is that a daytrader's dream or nightmare?

For a day trader to be active in the delivery month would definitely be a nightmare