Canola Update

[Partners]

Price of iron will not go down because they are way behind in orders.
Hopefully we will never catch up in grain production either to keep pace..
Seems a 10k increase is the # for swing augers, rock pickers and even 1805 bins..

[TechAnalyst]

If I remember correctly, elevator prices were never even close to the $1,100/t, not sure if they were even $550/t

It is quite possible that the nearby futures contract (that makes up a continuous long term chart) rallied sharply on a short squeeze going into the delivery period. The deferred contracts do not necessarily follow suit.

Grain companies tend to start pricing off deferred contracts as soon as the volatility starts to get unmanageable in the nearby contract. This past year has seen many examples of that.

The lack of liquidity at the time likely compounded the problems.

[TechAnalyst]

I would like to note that I haven't been able to find any data going back that far to support or contradict the continuous chart on barchart.com (with the high of approximately $1100/t).

I would assume it is from a reliable source but I cannot confirm.

[farming101]

I would like to note that I haven't been able to find any data going back that far to support or contradict the continuous chart on barchart.com (with the high of approximately $1100/t).

I would assume it is from a reliable source but I cannot confirm.

November 6, 1974 intraday high
Nov/74 contract in delivery
Open 1001
High 1101
Closed 992

[shtferbrains]

November 6, 1974 intraday high
Nov/74 contract in delivery
Open 1001
High 1101
Closed 992

Is that a daytrader's dream or nightmare?

[farming101]

Is that a daytrader's dream or nightmare?

For a day trader to be active in the delivery month would definitely be a nightmare

[farming101]

Less is more I guess

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I keep looking at these charts when you post them 101, but I'm not sure what to do with the info.

It doesn't seem to represent the reality on the ground. How can ending stocks and stocks to use remain stubbornly high when the crop was supposedly half? Or is this world wide?

[farming101]

I keep looking at these charts when you post them 101, but I'm not sure what to do with the info.

It doesn't seem to represent the reality on the ground. How can ending stocks and stocks to use remain stubbornly high when the crop was supposedly half? Or is this world wide?

Yes worldwide.
USDA says Canada ending stocks for 2021/22 510,000t. AAFC 500,000t
By itself the chart is of limited use, just part of the picture

[wheatking16]

Several of my Canola sell signals triggered.

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/canola-sell-signal-triggered

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Has anyone looked at palm oil lately? When it was having its big crash a while back and canola seem to be completely ignoring it, I quit following because it didn't seem to be relevant.
I just checked today, and it has just been setting new highs again.

This commentary was attached:
Malaysian palm futures extended gains in January to rise above MYR 5,000 per tonne, hovering around the highest level on record, after data from the country's palm oil board showed Malaysia's December palm oil end-stocks plunged more than expected, down 12.88% from the previous month to 1.58 million tonnes. In addition, production slumped 11.26%, while exports fell 3.48%. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services and independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia have also reported declines in palm oil exports of over 41% for January 1-10. Last week, palm oil booked its biggest gain in three months as output expectations were hit by concerns over adverse weather in the world's second largest producer.


Perhaps this explains the recent recovery in soy oil prices. Is the uncertainty over biden's policies on biofuels partly driving the recent drop in canola prices? Even though soy oil didn't get hit nearly as hard?

[V Belt]

Yes worldwide.
USDA says Canada ending stocks for 2021/22 510,000t. AAFC 500,000t
By itself the chart is of limited use, just part of the picture

sold some today. 18.38 nov