Coincidentally, I was just reading the Anderson study and I see that Tom posted it here.
Any cost analysis needs to be forward looking. Just like Chucks solar panels, where it works as long as only a small handful of irresponsible takers are abusing the grid by using it as free storage, but increase the uptake very much, and the advantage breaks down and becomes a liability long before a majority can get in on the action.
An EV as of today doesn't pay road tax. That will have to change. And in many jurisdictions, the biggest portion of road fuel is the taxes. GPS based per mile tax is a given in the near future.
Someone gets to pay for the upgraded and added infrastructure to charge the EV's and to get power from the difuse renewable sources. Have a look at Hamloc's power bill posted elsewhere, all the distribution and transmission charges and fees, already dwarf the actual power cost. If we have to essentially double the grid or more to accomodate all the EV's and electric heaters and to connect all the solar farms and wind farms to power them, ( to say nothing of the storage, since that isn't even within the realm of possibility, yet all the people commuting to work during the day, or driving for a living will be attempting to charge at night when there is no sun). So double or triple that cost.
Our leaders aren't promoting EV's because they want them to be fossil fuel powered, using coal and natural gas, they expect them to be powered by so called renewables. Have a look around the world at the massive price increases that accommodate swtiching to supposed renewables, in every single case( still waiting for Chuck to find an exception and prove me wrong). Now figure out how many multiples of our current electricity price we will end up at. Hint, on a day like today, it will go to infinity, once you start putting zeroes into the equation on the production side, and people who refuse to freeze to death on the demand side.
Now look at the cost of the materials in the EV and in the grid and in the renewable generation. Study after study indicates that many of these proposals to go all EV require materials in excess of the known world production or even supply. As always happens when supply exceeds demand, price goes up, which will drive up the purchase price of the EV and the generation and the infrastructure.
EV owners/producers (or renewable generators) currently pay no costs relating to battery or component recycling, whereas this model has already been applied in the fossil fuel upstream industry, to most electronics, to traditional batteries, tires, oil containers, etc. Downloading this cost onto the tax payer won't fly for long, so add this cost, and it isn't insignificant.
As usual, just like Ostrich or Elk farming, or a myriad of other ponzi schemes, the early adopters will make out like bandits, the majority will get royally fleeced, and the entire house of cars will collapse under its own weight.
In the meantime, enjoy the ride and the free ride, I readily accept that they are a lot of fun, and have many practical and economical benefits at the present time.
Any cost analysis needs to be forward looking. Just like Chucks solar panels, where it works as long as only a small handful of irresponsible takers are abusing the grid by using it as free storage, but increase the uptake very much, and the advantage breaks down and becomes a liability long before a majority can get in on the action.
An EV as of today doesn't pay road tax. That will have to change. And in many jurisdictions, the biggest portion of road fuel is the taxes. GPS based per mile tax is a given in the near future.
Someone gets to pay for the upgraded and added infrastructure to charge the EV's and to get power from the difuse renewable sources. Have a look at Hamloc's power bill posted elsewhere, all the distribution and transmission charges and fees, already dwarf the actual power cost. If we have to essentially double the grid or more to accomodate all the EV's and electric heaters and to connect all the solar farms and wind farms to power them, ( to say nothing of the storage, since that isn't even within the realm of possibility, yet all the people commuting to work during the day, or driving for a living will be attempting to charge at night when there is no sun). So double or triple that cost.
Our leaders aren't promoting EV's because they want them to be fossil fuel powered, using coal and natural gas, they expect them to be powered by so called renewables. Have a look around the world at the massive price increases that accommodate swtiching to supposed renewables, in every single case( still waiting for Chuck to find an exception and prove me wrong). Now figure out how many multiples of our current electricity price we will end up at. Hint, on a day like today, it will go to infinity, once you start putting zeroes into the equation on the production side, and people who refuse to freeze to death on the demand side.
Now look at the cost of the materials in the EV and in the grid and in the renewable generation. Study after study indicates that many of these proposals to go all EV require materials in excess of the known world production or even supply. As always happens when supply exceeds demand, price goes up, which will drive up the purchase price of the EV and the generation and the infrastructure.
EV owners/producers (or renewable generators) currently pay no costs relating to battery or component recycling, whereas this model has already been applied in the fossil fuel upstream industry, to most electronics, to traditional batteries, tires, oil containers, etc. Downloading this cost onto the tax payer won't fly for long, so add this cost, and it isn't insignificant.
As usual, just like Ostrich or Elk farming, or a myriad of other ponzi schemes, the early adopters will make out like bandits, the majority will get royally fleeced, and the entire house of cars will collapse under its own weight.
In the meantime, enjoy the ride and the free ride, I readily accept that they are a lot of fun, and have many practical and economical benefits at the present time.
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