Lower Ferilizer Prices?

[helmsdale]

With my narrow look into the market, I'd still feel confident in thinking that, all else being equal, there is no way we settle prior to spring at prices approaching long term average.

There is likely enough pent up demand, waiting for a decline, and certainly there isnt alot of excess capacity to fill that demand with numerous plants being shut in due to high nat gas prices, that any price declines will be met with increased demand.

Even if nat gas pulls back, barring economic collapse, it's likely that demand will outstrip supply thereby leaving us farmers in the passenger seat at least for this year.

[wheatking16]

What is happening with retail fertilizer prices?

Are they holding firm or lowering?

[farming101]

Haven't asked the locals. Last of our fert for '22 on farm now.

DTN survey says US prices trending higher

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2022/01/12/retail-fertilizer-prices-continue

[WiltonRanch]

Fertilizer won’t come down in time to benefit the 22’ crop. Ones who had good crops last year will be in a crunch having to apply regular fertility rates and see crop prices decline come fall and into the winter. Ones who had poor crops granted will have lower fertility needs but less crop to sell to cover increased input costs even at reduced rates. Costs the same to farm in both cases aside from fertility cost. At this point I’m not worried about fertilizer price but availability in the spring. If there has been as little fertilizer bought and brought home by now. What will the rush look like in the spring? Can imagine price will be even worse.

[Rinker]

What's are you guys seeing for prices now? Our local p and H is $1165 urea. I have Hope that it falls farther, like everyone I'm sure. Penciling this out makes my guts go in knots, but my biggest worry is waiting a little too long and not having product before the drill starts.

[shtferbrains]

Plants produce 1000te+ Nh3 per day.

Can't store more than maybe 2 mo.

Wonder what they are doing with it.

Any actual product moving?

[seldomseen]

Nola price for urea has dropped 42% off the high! Price hasn't come down at retailers yet. NH3 and UAN are still high and that could make people switch to Urea and push it higher.

Josh Linville was on a Saskwheat webinar this morning and I think it was recorded and should be at the Saskwheat website.

[ajl]

What's are you guys seeing for prices now? Our local p and H is $1165 urea. I have Hope that it falls farther, like everyone I'm sure. Penciling this out makes my guts go in knots, but my biggest worry is waiting a little too long and not having product before the drill starts.

Quote a couple days ago from my local was $1350 yet. That would be quite a drop. Buyer beware.

[agstar77]

My dealer said urea came down but there is no supply.

[4GFarms]

There is around a $100/mt difference between the two input dealers I talk too. Both saying maybe get some tonnes booked to guarantee supply.