Lower Ferilizer Prices?

[wheatking16]

My email lit up and my phone started ringing after this report was published this morning.

Lower Fertilizer Prices?

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/lower-fertilizer-prices

I look forward to your comments.

[Guest]

sure hope your tea leaves prove right

[AlbertaFarmer5]

My email lit up and my phone started ringing after this report was published this morning.

Lower Fertilizer Prices?

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/lower-fertilizer-prices

I look forward to your comments.

Thanks for all your efforts.

Are you thinking the high has been put in for the entire move? Or pullback within an even larger move?
Hard to accept that there is room to move any higher. But as I have stated before, fundamentals don't support crashing to previously normal levels either.

Does anyone know what time of year would be peak fertilizer usage or buying worldwide? With the expansion in South America( although a large portion of that is soybeans), has the fertilizer season shifted to fall/winter, and the peaks on the charts are coinciding with that?

[fjlip]

Oh jeez, 2009 all over again...he who hesitates is smarter, richer?

Just like all markets, can be over done high or low...

[furrowtickler]

Regardless of current grain and canola prices , the prices for fall 2022 can not sustain current fertilizer prices , even remotely. Maybe the big year end push was not much ? Very few actually needed a write off here or in the US ?
Even corn at current prices does not support current fertilizer prices for most areas even on the corn belt .
Or maybe just supply coming back on stream and year end pricing was a flop .

Thanks for the insight wheatking , much appreciated

[wheatking16]

Thanks for all your efforts.

Are you thinking the high has been put in for the entire move? Or pullback within an even larger move?
Hard to accept that there is room to move any higher. But as I have stated before, fundamentals don't support crashing to previously normal levels either.

Does anyone know what time of year would be peak fertilizer usage or buying worldwide? With the expansion in South America( although a large portion of that is soybeans), has the fertilizer season shifted to fall/winter, and the peaks on the charts are coinciding with that?

I really don't know.

I don't see the lower lows and lower highs yet or broad divergence with the RSI on weekly timeframe.

What happens if Natural gas reverses?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I really don't know.

I don't see the lower lows and lower highs yet or broad divergence with the RSI on weekly timeframe.

What happens if Natural gas reverses?

i read somewhere that it will take 1 or more years to normalize natural gas supply and demand in Europe, assuming no wars etc in the meantime.

And if you look at the lack of investment, it will take far longer than that.

[wheatking16]

i read somewhere that it will take 1 or more years to normalize natural gas supply and demand in Europe, assuming no wars etc in the meantime.

And if you look at the lack of investment, it will take far longer than that.

It will be interesting.

[helmsdale]

I really don't know.

I don't see the lower lows and lower highs yet or broad divergence with the RSI on weekly timeframe.

What happens if Natural gas reverses?

Re Natural Gas: GEFS prior to the new year had wicked cold sweeping through most of N.A. about this point in time. That's why you were seeing articles related to "LNG tankers parked off East Coast to take advantage of coming run in prices", or "Critics say EPCOT isn't prepared for a repeat of last years cold!", etc... I see those have all but completely disappeared, and for that matter, it appears that those LNG tankers have pulled anchor and are steaming hard for Europe. Latest GEFS runs have all but abandoned the serious cold snap that was supposed to engulf all of N.A. right down to the florida panhandle. That doesn't look supportive for north american natural gas, and perhaps could bolster European inventories if American LNG tankers can keep up to European consumption.

Of course long range models are about as useful as political polling, and all of this could change on a dime with a new run in the near future, but Nat Gas high's could very well be in.

[TOM4CWB]

I really don't know.

I don't see the lower lows and lower highs yet or broad divergence with the RSI on weekly timeframe.

What happens if Natural gas reverses?

Hurricane Ida with $65B damage to infrastructure had a huge impact on Ag chemical and Fertilizer prices… with EU NG squeeze by Russian German political EU manipulation.

Weather and Biden/Saunders/ Chinese Marxism New Green Deal Implementation will drive supplies… with weather always the spoiler!

Cheers

[jazz]

Lower than when? We locked in a blend back in October for $929 and now that would go for $1114.

Probably lower than the early December price though. Those prices where nearing the $1300 mark if I remember.

[furrowtickler]

Lower than when? We locked in a blend back in October for $929 and now that would go for $1114.

Probably lower than the early December price though. Those prices where nearing the $1300 mark if I remember.

Hopefully get back to October prices , at least that is somewhat manageable

[wheatking16]

Lower than when? We locked in a blend back in October for $929 and now that would go for $1114.

Probably lower than the early December price though. Those prices where nearing the $1300 mark if I remember.

Lower than today.

[SASKFARMER]

Yep read that and mayo quit and it was all a game.

[LWeber]

no disrespect - I appreciate what you're doing and perhaps you can educate me as well...

Yesterday the UREA Market fell $25.50 as per your charts and it didn't even trade...

Some of the open interest variables in the charts you posted are questionable. A weakening signal was on MAP CFR Brazil based on zero trades yesterday but above all - and most importantly - there is zero open interest...none - f/a

The open interest on most fertilizer futures is dismal. I wrote a paper for a company on utilizing fertilizer futures for risk management in 2015. This company had the capacity to own the majority of the open interest based on a sound hedging program. I advised against using it - and they did not. Ask the CWB how that worked in Minneapolis with DNS and trying to lift their hedges. Better yet, ask a farmer..

Swaps I can see as a price discovery mechanism; making assumptions on any futures contract with little to no open interest - it is a hallelujah day when it trades - does what for chart based signals?

Urea dropped 3.28% yesterday and it didn't trade - volume was zero... Volume for the entire 6 futures contracts was 15 contracts or 1500 MT. I have farmers that buy 5 to 10 times that much for their farm.

Not looking to start a fight - just trying to understand how a sell signal should be adhered to in a contract that doesn't trade... or is not reflective of the underlying cash market.