Crude oil

[Hamloc]

WTI oil just looked, up to $86.67, going to make spring fuel cost more expensive for sure. I did see a new urea price from one vendor yesterday of $1195 for immediate delivery. Softening a bit. Still a high price though.

[errolanderson]

An opinion . . . The top in crude might be in, especially should Russia stand down.

There is no shortage of oil. U.S. gasoline inventories are now rising. Geo-political tensions may have oil prices overbought by at least $5 to $7 per barrel (IMO).

Ethanol processing margins have turned sharply lower over the past two weeks. Corn appears overbought considering ethanol downturn. February WTI crude appears to have support @ $82, then $77.50 per barrel on-a-pullback.

Also, Black Sea wheat appears vulnerable to-a-setback for the same reasons. Wheat again considered overbought by some EU export traders. We will all know soon whether geo-politics will hold prices up much longer . . . .

[TOM4CWB]

An opinion . . . The top in crude might be in, especially should Russia stand down.

There is no shortage of oil. U.S. gasoline inventories are now rising. Geo-political tensions may have oil prices overbought by at least $5 to $7 per barrel (IMO).

Ethanol processing margins have turned sharply lower over the past two weeks. Corn appears overbought considering ethanol downturn. February WTI crude appears to have support @ $82, then $77.50 per barrel on-a-pullback.

Also, Black Sea wheat appears vulnerable to-a-setback for the same reasons. Wheat again considered overbought by some EU export traders. We will all know soon whether geo-politics will hold prices up much longer . . . .

Errol; Crazy Ivan [Putin] and Iran [Yemen rebels who just blew up 3 storage tanks I'm UAE with drones] are not backing down any time soon... plus as Covid FF energy consumption ramps back up, the capital to bring shale oil and oil sands crude increases has motives never before experienced [RE Climate Change/Carbon tax= diminishing returns for investment vs past black oil capacity increases/cross subsidization of renewables]

Short term $65/B dips are possible, but low probability of long term [black oil] trend down...in WTI and Brent...would be high risk to short these wouldn't you agree???

Like going short Nov 22 Canola [now $825.90] would be high risk, wouldn't you think???

PS Crazy Ivan has already killed 15,000 people in eastern Ukraine... why would he stop now?

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Reuters
Ukraine war necessary if Russia recognises breakaway regions - pro-Kremlin MP

FILE PHOTO: Militants of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic train at a range in Donetsk
Maria Tsvetkova
Thu, January 20, 2022, 10:49 AM
By Maria Tsvetkova

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian-backed separatists in east Ukraine would expect Russia's army to fight with them against Ukrainian government forces if Moscow follows through on a parliamentary proposal to recognise their independence, a pro-Kremlin lawmaker said on Thursday.

Alexander Borodai made the comment after 11 lawmakers proposed that parliament ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/might-russia-recognise-independence-breakaway-east-ukraine-regions-2022-01-20 the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Such a move would mark a major escalation by Russia after weeks of mounting tensions around Ukraine. A Russian military buildup and threatening rhetoric have stoked Western fears of a looming invasion, though Moscow denies any such plan.

Borodai, a former Donetsk political leader who is now a member of the Russian parliament, said the separatists would look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of the territory they claim that are now held by Ukrainian forces.

"In the event of (the republics) being recognised, a war will become a direct necessity," Borodai told Reuters.

"Russia would have to take on some security responsibilities" and defend the territories, he said, as it did after recognising the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions after a 2008 war between Russia and Georgia.

The separatists took control of a swathe of eastern Ukraine in 2014 in a conflict that continues to simmer and has killed 15,000 people, according to Kyiv. Ukraine has long accused Russia of having regular troops in the region, something Moscow denies.

Borodai, a lawmaker for the ruling, pro-Putin United Russia party, served as prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic in east Ukraine at the height of the conflict in 2014. He now leads an organisation of war veterans.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday responded cautiously to the proposal on recognition, saying he could not comment until parliament had voted on it. The lawmakers behind it are from the Communist Party, which casts itself as an opposition force but actually often backs the Kremlin.

Two sources familiar with government discussions of the proposal told Reuters the idea of recognising the regions was being seriously considered.

But a source close to the separatist leadership said the likelihood of such a move was low because it could provoke punitive measures against Russia, potentially entailing serious economic damage.

Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine analyst at Chatham House think-tank in London, said recognition could create a legal pretext for a Russian invasion of Donbass to "protect" it from Ukraine.

She said it would be a "clear step of escalation" requiring a Western response in the form of sanctions against Russia or bolstering NATO forces on the alliance's eastern flank.

(Additional reporting by Anton Zverev and Mark Trevelyan, editing by Tom Balmforth, Mark Trevelyan, William Maclean)

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-war-necessary-russia-recognises-174949953.html

[TOM4CWB]

The Daily Beast
Biden Predicts Russia Will ‘Move In’ on Ukraine
Shannon Vavra
Wed, January 19, 2022, 3:44 PM
Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty

In his administration's starkest analysis yet of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans, President Joe Biden said Wednesday that he believes Russia will invade Ukraine.

“My guess is he will move in,” Biden said of Putin during his first press conference in roughly 10 months. “He has to do something.”

But Biden also reiterated that Russia would face steep economic consequences if Putin pressed forward with an invasion. "He's never seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed if he moves," Biden said, though he also indicated that sanctions would vary on the level of attack Putin takes.

"It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do," the president said.

Biden’s analysis comes after months of observations that Russia has been amassing hundreds of thousands of troops and equipment along its border with Ukraine.

An Aging Vladimir Putin Hopes War Can Make a Sagging Empire Rise Again

But administration assessments have largely wavered on whether Putin has actually decided to invade Ukraine.

A senior administration official told The Daily Beast this week that they expect action to take place between mid-January and mid-February. Putin, the official said, is planning to use Russian operatives to conduct sabotage against Russian forces in order to create a justification to attack Ukraine.

In recent days, the calculus for Russia appears to have shifted to some degree—Russia has deployed troops to Belarus, ostensibly as part of “drills.” But a senior State Department official said during a call Tuesday that Russia may just be using Belarus as a way to launch an attack on Ukraine from the north.

“The timing is notable and of course raises concern that Russia could intend to station troops in Belarus under the guise of joint military exercises… in order to potentially attack Ukraine from the north,” the senior State Department official said.

Given the sheer amount of troop movement towards Ukraine that Russia has coordinated in recent days—and the amount of expenditure that takes—military action looks extremely possible, said Larry Pfeiffer, a former senior director of the White House Situation Room and former CIA Chief of Staff.

“The amount of military deployment that’s going on is extremely large. That’s an incredible expenditure of money and resources on the part of the Russians,” Pfeiffer told The Daily Beast. “There can be an argument made that at a certain point, that kind of expenditure, you’re going to move all that stuff there, you’re going to go forward with the military action.”

At this rate, Putin could attack Ukraine “at very short notice,” Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Wednesday during a visit in Kiev, Ukraine.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/biden-predicts-russia-move-ukraine-224404756.html

[errolanderson]

Errol; Crazy Ivan [Putin] and Iran [Yemen rebels who just blew up 3 storage tanks I'm UAE with drones] are not backing down any time soon... plus as Covid FF energy consumption ramps back up, the capital to bring shale oil and oil sands crude increases has motives never before experienced [RE Climate Change/Carbon tax= diminishing returns for investment vs past black oil capacity increases/cross subsidization of renewables]

Short term $65/B dips are possible, but low probability of long term [black oil] trend down...in WTI and Brent...would be high risk to short these wouldn't you agree???

Like going short Nov 22 Canola [now $825.90] would be high risk, wouldn't you think???

Cheers

November canola $800 puts may trade for $55/MT or lower. Example: This would position a grower with a $745/MT ($16.90/bu) plus or minus your fall delivered basis floor price with no production, no delivery obligation. No margin calls. No risk of payout penalty.

Owning puts only, the grower has full cash market upside. If new crop canola prices go to the moon, you are on-board. But if canola prices tank, you have solid price protection.

Tom, last year’s prices are last year’s prices. This is a changing economy that is now feeling remorseful with all the free money that is now disappearing quickly. Inflation has likely already peaked . . . .

[TOM4CWB]

November canola $800 puts may trade for $55/MT or lower. Example: This would position a grower with a $745/MT ($16.90/bu) plus or minus your fall delivered basis floor price with no production, no delivery obligation. No margin calls. No risk of payout penalty.

Tom, last year prices are last year prices. This is a changing economy that is now feeling remorseful with all the free money that is now disappearing quickly. Inflation had likely already peaked . . . .

When we get to $900 Nov22 Canola in a couple of months, perhaps puts could reasonably reduce risk, Capital is at a premium, $75/t is 10% of the price….

Hopefully we can learn from high cost hedges made last year!

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Crazy Ivan [Putin] denies Russian responsibility... in MH17 disaster: as he prepares for war...

A total of 283 passengers, including 80 children, and 15 crew members were on board.
Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was travelling over conflict-hit Ukraine on 17 July 2014 when it disappeared from radar.
A total of 283 passengers, including 80 children, and 15 crew members were on board.
The plane crashed after being hit by a Russian-made Buk missile over eastern Ukraine, a 15-month investigation by the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) found in October 2015.
In September 2016, an international team of criminal investigators said evidence showed the Buk missile had been brought in from Russian territory and was fired from a field controlled by Russian-backed separatists.
The Dutch-led joint investigation team (JIT) concluded in May 2018 that the missile system belonged to a Russian brigade, and Australia and the Netherlands announced both were holding Russia responsible for downing the aircraft.
Then, in June 2019, the JIT named four men it alleged were involved in bringing the missile into the area in eastern Ukraine, and charged them with the murders of 298 passengers and crew. It announced that international arrest warrants had been issued.

How many of us... have recently recalled this haunting crime against humanity... Canadians killed...
" this air disaster [ MH17 ] since that July day when a Russian-made surface-to-air missile exploded next to the Malaysia Airlines cockpit."

Too soon forgotten???:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28357880

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59979885

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has hit back at comments made by his US counterpart Joe Biden about a "minor incursion" by Russia into his country.
Mr Biden had suggested that a "minor" attack might bring a weaker response from the US and its allies.
But Mr Zelensky tweeted: "There are no minor incursions. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones."
Russia has some 100,000 troops near the border but denies planning an invasion.
President Vladimir Putin has made a series of demands to the West, insisting Ukraine should never be allowed to join Nato and that the defensive alliance abandons military activity in eastern Europe.
Presentational grey line
Tensions over Ukraine
EXPLAINED: Is Russia preparing to invade Ukraine?
FROM KYIV: Ukrainians wait as Russia faces off with the West
FROM BRUSSELS: EU 'closest to war' in decades over Russia-Ukraine crisis
UK SUPPORT: UK says it is sending weapons to defend Ukraine

Presentational grey line
On Wednesday, President Biden told a news conference that Mr Putin would pay a "serious and dear price" for invading Ukraine, but also indicated that it might depend on how Russia went about it.
"What you're going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades and it depends on what it does," he said. "It's one thing if it's a minor incursion, and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do etc."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60072502

[wheatking16]

Does anyone else feel an oil top here?

[farming101]

Just put in a new 7+ yr high so could be...
80.82 support - continuous