Commodity Markets

[jazz]

Actual moisture is not much. We are at about 24" of total snowfall. I have a snowcatcher and melted down, it's equivalent to 1.5" of rain. Not exactly a drought buster.

No drought buster for sure. Takes years for that to happen.

But last year our snow was all crystals that were gone in early april and then we had a month of wind blowing over the land. Seeded into dust in some fields. I dont think that happens this year. There should be at least snow cover for an extra 3 weeks this year I hope.

[Old Cowzilla]

We are in better shape than this time last year but not near enough water to support livestock through summer season, dugouts still empty.

[shtferbrains]

Snow we have will green the grass up but will need spring rains to keep it producing.
Dugouts are fair to good here.

[errolanderson]

Equity pressures as well . . . .

Russel 2000 is on the verge of turning negative year-over-year . . . This is seen as a lead indicator for direction of the S&P 500 index. Another canary in the mine.

China also just cut their rates. Global financial market selloff risks rising and may already be in-progress . . . .

[shtferbrains]

US markets closed yesterday but good to see wheat and oat futures up strong on the opening this morning.

[furrowtickler]

La Niña incoming. Cooler wetter for US and Canada. Market predicting big rebounds in 22 yields.

Maybe should lock in a few bushels.

One more big volcanic eruption and global temperatures could be affected.
It’s happened many times before.

[furrowtickler]

US markets closed yesterday but good to see wheat and oat futures up strong on the opening this morning.

One thing to keep in mind as well , was told the next trains coming are for wheat . They will actually need to buy wheat to fill trains . There is nothing much left other than wheat on most farms , around here anyway.
Will be looking for those who need to fill care over the next 2-4 weeks . Hopefully decent selling opportunities again . Not sure if we will get to early December prices but at least the slide may be done for now

[LWeber]

La Niña incoming. Cooler wetter for US and Canada. Market predicting big rebounds in 22 yields.

Maybe should lock in a few bushels.

[shtferbrains]

Good early opening prices for wheat and oats again today with all grains green on the futures.

Couple more days and it will be a trend.

Is it speculation or real demand?

[jamesb]

Good early opening prices for wheat and oats again today with all grains green on the futures.

Couple more days and it will be a trend.

Is it speculation or real demand?

IMO its fear of Russia/Ukraine war. Pretty big wheat producers between those two.

[shtferbrains]

IMO its fear of Russia/Ukraine war. Pretty big whea t producers between those two.

Sounds logical. So speculation?
Or buyers stocking up to avoid higher prices?

If the cars are coming for wheat they must have boats?
Anybody hauling wheat going in to railcars?

[shtferbrains]

When Putin took over they imported 50% of thier food.
Now the biggest Wheat exporter.
He sees it as big potential and wants to be the dominant supplier to Asia and the middle east.

We have no concern as our economy will be on the great green reset.

https://www.ft.com/content/4d925bae-fa89-4e64-9063-0c01e3b5690c

Good write up about Russian ag from the Finacial Times.
They will be a force in the near future as we leave the gates open.

[WiltonRanch]

When Putin took over they imported 50% of thier food.
Now the biggest Wheat exporter.
He sees it as big potential and wants to be the dominant supplier to Asia and the middle east.

We have no concern as our economy will be on the great green reset.

https://www.ft.com/content/4d925bae-fa89-4e64-9063-0c01e3b5690c

Good write up about Russian ag from the Finacial Times.
They will be a force in the near future as we leave the gates open.

They’ve been coming at us for 30 years. Them, the Ukraine and FSU have all the potential to push us out of Asia and probably Africa too. However, the big however is it’s the rest of this regions perennial endemic problems that continue to plague it. Throw in crashing demographics and kleptocrats running the show there are barriers to their dominance. Now, if Putin decides to go to war this will put them back further.

[shtferbrains]

They’ve been coming at us for 30 years. Them, the Ukraine and FSU have all the potential to push us out of Asia and probably Africa too. However, the big however is it’s the rest of this regions perennial endemic problems that continue to plague it. Throw in crashing demographics and kleptocrats running the show there are barriers to their dominance. Now, if Putin decides to go to war this will put them back further.

Absolutely they have some issues with competing againt a well functioning free market capitalist system.
But are we not opening the gate wider and wider as time goes by.
If we continue to ad artificial gobernment barriers and costs they will continue to eat our lunch.

[WiltonRanch]

Absolutely they have some issues with competing againt a well functioning free market capitalist system.
But are we not opening the gate wider and wider as time goes by.
If we continue to ad artificial gobernment barriers and costs they will continue to eat our lunch.

It’s not helping us. That’s for sure. I look at it on a 50 year time line. Russia and the FSU better light a flame under their economies and build their wealth before everyone ages out or dies off. There is huge potential for Russia and the FSU but they never experienced the developments the western world encountered like the renaissance and the industrial revolution. Something to be said about being ruled by the eastern hoards keeping you in the dark ages longer than what it should have. They virtually went from a succession of tyrant kings and queens to a succession of tyrant communists to a tyrant kleptocrat. They haven’t yet got that thing figured out yet. We do not realize the success of the west is rooted in all the messy things our ancestors had to endure, overcome, and improve upon. Sometimes we look at our own government and fear they are eroding into the bs like in these backward tyrant nations which we aspire not to be. Russia and the lot hasn’t had that genesis from within its own population. In fact, the communist revolution was engineered by the Germans to destabilize Russia. Everything that gets done is top down with many hands out on the way down. It’s hard to stamp out when the president is doing the same thing.