NOV 2022 Canola

[beaverdam]

I see RSX22 back to it's Nov 17th/2021 high. Chart looks to be showing strong resistance at around $840.00.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/RSX22/interactive-chart

What might it take to break through that $840ish level prior to mid April time frame, for booking/pricing fall deliveries?

Our closest deliver locations are -25 to -30 under NOV for Sept - Oct delivery.

[Partners]

RP in yorkton at $19.21..for November.

[KochiaKing]

$18.75 Lloyd ADM. Getting close to biting the bullet and selling a few bushels, best case its the lowest i sell Canola for next year.

[Guest]

And worst case is it is $28.75/bu and you don’t grow any!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And worst case is it is $28.75/bu and you don’t grow any!

I'm not too sure if you are an optimist or a pessimist?

[TOM4CWB]

$18.75 Lloyd ADM. Getting close to biting the bullet and selling a few bushels, best case its the lowest i sell Canola for next year.

Since the inception of the USA, 30% of the UScurrency printed has been in the last 2 years.

40% increase in airfreight in the last 2 years, record high rates to ship airfreight… 2-3 year backlog in freight conversion kits for passenger aircraft…

Stagflation!????

How about this being the setup by the WEF to reset global currencies?

$900 Nov22 Canola minimum???

Last estimate out of Brazil 124M tonnes (down now 20mmt) today…

Russia just banned ammonium nitrate exports for the next 2 months…

Argentina just dropped soy Acerage another 250,000ac 2nd drop this year…

Extremely volatile markets…

Not your grandfather’s markets… as the saying goes…

Cheers

PS just watching the close of markets on RFD TV…
22 million less workers now in the USA than before the Pandemic started … where did they all go???

Crazy times!

[KochiaKing]

And worst case is it is $28.75/bu and you don’t grow any!

If true will have many much bigger problems than buying out a few bushels

[AlbertaFarmer5]

How about realist.

You still holding canola ab5?

Still sitting on most of 2 years worth of production. I did price a small amount back in November. Delivered now.
I had originally planned to have it all priced by now, but the situation did not evolve the way I expected it do, so Will pulled out for or less, whichever comes first.

[Guest]

not sure if you have ever done it , but it is a real kick in the nuts
using crop ins to pay off contracts

[TOM4CWB]

not sure if you have ever done it , but it is a real kick in the nuts
using crop ins to pay off contracts

Marketers talking about buying puts… put spreading… locking in‘profit’…

Do you understand how much this can cost???

I certainly understand how this works… very expensive training in 2021… Crusher said he got his training in 2020…

But if it doesn’t cost significant ‘ real’ ($) pain… unlikely to learn the ‘hard earned’ certificate of perspective and wisdom!!!

God please give me the courage to do the things I can, and the wisdom to accept the things that I should leave be…

Cheers

[Old Cowzilla]

not sure if you have ever done it , but it is a real kick in the nuts
using crop ins to pay off contracts

Got neighbors who got kicked in the nuts twice no crop ins. and still had to buy out contracts.

[Oliver88]

Marketers talking about buying puts… put spreading… locking in‘profit’…

Do you understand how much this can cost???

I certainly understand how this works… very expensive training in 2021… Crusher said he got his training in 2020…

But if it doesn’t cost significant ‘ real’ ($) pain… unlikely to learn the ‘hard earned’ certificate of perspective and wisdom!!!

God please give me the courage to do the things I can, and the wisdom to accept the things that I should leave be…

Cheers

I think this is a better option (no pun intended) than a production contract. Lots of expensive lessons were learned in 2021.

Grain companies should be offering AOG contracts for commodity canola similar to specialty canola already does. They will if farmers refuse to sign production contracts without Act of God clause.

[jdg364]

Just sold 5 bu/ac for next year on cnl a little on oats... I will still be able to sleep at night even with things on the dry side.

These prices are Amazing and will offset some costs for 2022.

[KochiaKing]

not sure if you have ever done it , but it is a real kick in the nuts
using crop ins to pay off contracts

Had the pleasure this year with wheat and Barley. Won't forgot this lesson. Also won't forget the elevators that were rolling contracts for some and those that weren't. Does this solve all the issues? No, but it sure helps. Much like the lessons learned over the years with grade, falling number BS and delivery date, seem to cycle through all the elevators eventually. Have a hard time not to hedge a few bushels off the combine with $10 Wheat and $19 Canola out there with input prices being so high. Will I regret having to buy out 2-5bu if I get no crop? Yes. Will I regret it if the price doubles? Yes. Would be nice to wait until July and we knows there's a crop, but will the price still be there? If China decides to do something crazy could the price plummet? The beauty of free trade is we can all decide different ways. Either way its a gamble, and the gamble seems to be getting harder and harder to make, but there's plenty of other jobs for me that don't depend so much on the weather if I wanted. Just one way of thinking about it, after all this is a forum to share and learn different perspectives even if some of us get sidetracked at times.

[Partners]

With the tons of snow we are getting , will the markets see this a a good crop
Potential soon?
What ever..we all in different situations..Freedom to make our own choices...