Inflation… raise interest rates to slow Inflation???

[mcfarms]

The Meta Universe fallout is just a warning shot . . . .

Many economic sectors at-risk. This is the ‘Everything Bubble’. Easy money times are gone.

Talked to a friend last night he mentioned he'd made more of one trading account in January alone than he will make off a 200 head cow herd in 2022, (he has more than one trading account) Im thinking the easy money is still there you just gotta know when to have the balls to buy and the brains to keep your sell stops current. Cnq up 2.5 percent in the 12 minutes since the market opened.

[TOM4CWB]

mcfarms:

Thx... interesting point!

There is good reasons that over 95% of grain grown in western Canada is not covered by hedges in futures accounts.

With $50/t now the daily limit on canola... 'stops' are an interesting concept... but a farmer forward hedging grain not yet in the bin.... the risks of large margin calls are difficult to ignore... cash grain sales simplify marketing our farm production...

It is astoundingly easy to spend $50/t on futures hedging/options... any significant volume adds to out of pocket 'visible' "losses" on year end futures account statements... hindsight tends to skew most people into feeling guilty for these 'marketing' costs of sales on balance sheets on financial end of year statements...

Hedges with buyers of our grains are less costly by far in my experience... all losses on hedges hurt... while sales at above average prices for the year... are not easily noticed or appreciated!!!

In depth analysis show that average sales prices grain growers achieve are the same for cash sellers and those who use extensive hedge risk management strategies... cash grain sellers have higher income volatility.

The stress of daily hedge account margin monitoring and maintenance... is interesting and educational... requires dedication on a daily basis... and self discipline way above cash grain sellers...

A mix of direct hedges with grain buyers and cash sales has least marketing cost... and least stress!!!

Cheers

[Landdownunder]

A friend mentioned to me countries have varying levels of inflation some way to much.

Western economies the same.

But as soon as a economic powerhouse country get super high even hyper can snowball before you know it 18 months.

Hey I’m no guru think Australia export 195 billion $ and import $187 billion.

Figures fudged a bit though. From years gone by.

Oil fields and oil production is bugger all.

Changes self reliant to a degree and export some oil to net importer of wacks the balance sheet skewwiff.

[agstar77]

mcfarms:

Thx... interesting point!

There is good reasons that over 95% of grain grown in western Canada is not covered by hedges in futures accounts.

With $50/t now the daily limit on canola... 'stops' are an interesting concept... but a farmer forward hedging grain not yet in the bin.... the risks of large margin calls are difficult to ignore... cash grain sales simplify marketing our farm production...

It is astoundingly easy to spend $50/t on futures hedging/options... any significant volume adds to out of pocket 'visible' "losses" on year end futures account statements... hindsight tends to skew most people into feeling guilty for these 'marketing' costs of sales on balance sheets on financial end of year statements...

Hedges with buyers of our grains are less costly by far in my experience... all losses on hedges hurt... while sales at above average prices for the year... are not easily noticed or appreciated!!!

In depth analysis show that average sales prices grain growers achieve are the same for cash sellers and those who use extensive hedge risk management strategies... cash grain sellers have higher income volatility.

The stress of daily hedge account margin monitoring and maintenance... is interesting and educational... requires dedication on a daily basis... and self discipline way above cash grain sellers...

A mix of direct hedges with grain buyers and cash sales has least marketing cost... and least stress!!!

Cheers

Are you saying it is stressful and difficult for individual farmers to market their own grain? How enlightening, too bad you did not see it 20 years ago.

[binthere]

There was no stress at the c.w.b.... they weren't doing their job. Nice try aggie.

[HITTGrapevine]

Are you saying it is stressful and difficult for individual farmers to market their own grain? How enlightening, too bad you did not see it 20 years ago.

Too funny. Wasn't it the sock puppets father who said: Why should I sell your wheat?

[wrongway]

Are you saying it is stressful and difficult for individual farmers to market their own grain? How enlightening, too bad you did not see it 20 years ago.

no stress at all waiting to get a car delivered to the elevator so you could start hauling in your first 3 bu/ac quota just in time for christmas. the check for your initial payment of $2/bu insured a great christmas!


FFS people have short FN memories

[Landdownunder]

Unreal the differences in deregulated open markets here compared to your great land. Maybe rushed a little.

Both buyers and sellers and competing sellers know shipping have to know tonnes in elevator systems and have to know rough on farm stocks.

Creates fluid open trandparent markets and market function.

Could be out of line here but doubt there is a single farmers who bemoans loss of single desk and would return to it.

We’re as many of you chaps here on Agriville would seemingly go back in flash.

A few traders left AWB when it lost singlecdesk and we’re just starting there careers. So had a taste of the old and the new. My brokers is one such person. A standard comment is single desk and it’s functions just would not cope in super volatile grain markets and he laughs it didn’t cope in tame markets actually

[Gofer]

mcfarms:

Thx... interesting point!

There is good reasons that over 95% of grain grown in western Canada is not covered by hedges in futures accounts.

With $50/t now the daily limit on canola... 'stops' are an interesting concept... but a farmer forward hedging grain not yet in the bin.... the risks of large margin calls are difficult to ignore... cash grain sales simplify marketing our farm production...

It is astoundingly easy to spend $50/t on futures hedging/options... any significant volume adds to out of pocket 'visible' "losses" on year end futures account statements... hindsight tends to skew most people into feeling guilty for these 'marketing' costs of sales on balance sheets on financial end of year statements...

Hedges with buyers of our grains are less costly by far in my experience... all losses on hedges hurt... while sales at above average prices for the year... are not easily noticed or appreciated!!!

In depth analysis show that average sales prices grain growers achieve are the same for cash sellers and those who use extensive hedge risk management strategies... cash grain sellers have higher income volatility.

The stress of daily hedge account margin monitoring and maintenance... is interesting and educational... requires dedication on a daily basis... and self discipline way above cash grain sellers...

A mix of direct hedges with grain buyers and cash sales has least marketing cost... and least stress!!!

Cheers

Totally agree Tom ! Been there done that and in the end it was a negative experience. Paid for instruction and advice from some who later went farming to show us how it's done in a big way. They went tits up fairly quickly and disappointed a lot of investors who got about 30 cents on the dollar.

[TOM4CWB]

Are you saying it is stressful and difficult for individual farmers to market their own grain? How enlightening, too bad you did not see it 20 years ago.

Agatar,
There are no shortcuts to any ‘place’ worth going, or learning that respect and wisdom in other peoples experiences can teach us valuable lessons.

Sad that after 10 years of many valuable marketing lessons learned… you reverted to intimidation and bitterness to share once again!

Many Blessings! Hope you have a profitable year!