Pricing new crop?

[Ronski]

Anybody signing deferred delivery contracts? I am tempted but while I am in a "sure crop" area I have been hailed out 100% in the past and will again someday.
I just mailed my forms for a trading account and plan on buying put options to limit my downside.

I will use corn to cover my feed grains but am unsure if the canola contract is liquid enough or if I should use Soy to cover my canola?

Any thoughts?

[furrowtickler]

Anybody signing deferred delivery contracts? I am tempted but while I am in a "sure crop" area I have been hailed out 100% in the past and will again someday.
I just mailed my forms for a trading account and plan on buying put options to limit my downside.

I will use corn to cover my feed grains but am unsure if the canola contract is liquid enough or if I should use Soy to cover my canola?

Any thoughts?

We too are very wary of forward contacts right now .
Opportunity is there for sure but like you we have been hailed out 80% two years ago and had a 60% hit or more in yields due to drought last year .
Hard not to entertain pricing next fall but definitely need to cover and are looking to learn from others

[Herc]

One elevator in the distance is offering act of god on canola, hrsw, barley. Haven’t phoned myself but know some are locking in.

[jazz]

We are 3 months from seeding in NA.

Does it look like the supply crunch is going to get worked out of the system this year? Sure doesnt look like it to me.

Other supply problems are logistic related. Grain is in a short position around the world.

Not too worried and not going to take a risk on a contract thats not 100% sound proof. None of them are.

[Herc]

$35/tonne to get into their act of god contract. Don’t shoot the messenger…..

[wrongway]

$35/tonne to get into their act of god contract. Don’t shoot the messenger…..

so really the merchant is just buying a call option on tonnes contracted and hoping to get the tonnes from another farmer to meet sales commitments.

The fly in the ointment is if all of western canada has another low production year and they can't fill the sales contracts.

This is what happened this past year and why the contract buyout fees were so high there wasn't enough grain on offer anywhere to offset the futures contract shortfalls.

as to the price of the insurance...would you guarantee anyone a price without a delivery commitment for free? I sure as heck wouldn't especially some of those I see posting on here.

[Templeboy]

Prices are really good, and I have taken some new crop DDs at these premiums. I think it is important to get some coverage on the high fert prices. If you bought early, you will likely re-buy into the same market next year. I cannot see the summer fert reset to be a significant one, so high inputs next year with the possible fert crash in 23 some time. Grain stocks are low, could keep prices buoyed several year, but black swans events not even related to Ag could catch us.

[ajl]

The big risk with forward pricing in this environment is what is the loon going to be worth 12 months from now? That is what upset the apple cart in '21 as hyper inflation moved in last spring. I think the early March interest rate hike will have to happen now as the banks are having a bit of a run right now so that will slow the decline of the loon at least for a few weeks. However, with the economy now in a continuous downward spiral, I think that will be all the rate hikes this year potentially leading to further erosion in the loon.

[blackpowder]

Good idea on the CAD.
Burying my head in the sand on new crop. Really should do some as normal but still wondering what seasonal trends hold.
Normally only hedge downside risk on a % of unpriced production. This year if exceed say 20 bpa presold will be covering upside risk on those as a production loss ins.

[Guest]

well , lets see ?
fert doubled in price
chemicals up about 30%
parts doubled in price in last 3 years
dryer than **** all over
2" cracks in ground
interest rate rises coming hard and fast
shortage of seed
shortage of cash
shortage of labour, parts, new machinery
record farm debt
Some chemicals like Mcpa/24d not available at any price
liberal looney worth about 60% of 5 years ago
anyone think this dire shortage getting filled anytime soon
guys here got hailed out 2 days prior to harvesting 40 bushel canola and had to buy their way out

[foragefarmer]

Case

Focus on the positives, it's better for your mental health.

Alfalfa $2.25 to $2.50/lb. and needs no fertilizer.

and of coarse family!

[shtferbrains]

Case

Focus on the positives, it's better for your mental health.

Alfalfa $2.25 to $2.50/lb. and needs no fertilizer.

and of coarse family!

Do you have your own bees forage?

[Guest]

Case

Focus on the positives, it's better for your mental health.

Alfalfa $2.25 to $2.50/lb. and needs no fertilizer.

and of coarse family!

I agree 100%
All I’m saying is we have enough risk
Let someone else assume some
These are just facts , reasons , if you will , of why a bumper crop isn’t gonna happen
Getting hailed in the final days before payday and then buying out contracts is not much fun
Even if there isn’t a drought

[Guest]

Case

Focus on the positives, it's better for your mental health.

Alfalfa $2.25 to $2.50/lb. and needs no fertilizer.

and of coarse family!

You spelt coarse wrong

[foragefarmer]

Do you have your own bees forage?

We focus on grasses.